General

How did a tiny start-up beat Detroit, Germany & Japan to a usable EV?

edited November -1 in General
It is amazing how far Tesla has moved the yardstick on electric vehicles. What I find curious is how the world's existing manufacturers couldn't generate anywhere near the range that Tesla gets out of it's battery packs. Especially since they are using laptop batteries that are already mass produced. As I understand it, all Tesla did was find the most efficient way to configure them and then manage the temperature and environment of the batteries within the pack. I'm sure there are a few other aspects that differentiate Tesla's battery pack but it's not like they created some new type of battery. They just figured out how to get the most out of them. And they had a fraction of the r/d staff and $ to figure it out compared to the existing manufacturers.

That being said, will the other manufacturers be able to replicate the Tesla's range within a few years? I hope not, I'd like to see Tesla stay on the cutting edge.
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Comments

  • edited November -1
    What makes you think Detroit, Germany and Japan wanted to, or tried?
  • edited November -1
    The fact that all 3 are producing hybrids shows the desire and effort to incorporate battery power into their vehicles. They are all publicly traded so they are driven to build profits. An important way to beat your competitors is to develop technolgy quicker and better than the next guy.

    GM has spent hundreds of millions of dollars pursuing electric cars. But they had given up on the effort until they saw what Tesla was doing. That led them back to the drawing board just a few years ago and they came up with the Volt which pales in comparison to the range of a Tesla.
  • edited November -1
    What Brian says is true. The existing automakers are pleasing their stockholders by making safe (in the sense of the level of investment and risk) vehicles for the masses.

    Remember that the path to automotive progress is littered with the remains of companies who tried and failed.
  • edited November -1
    Although I get Brian's point I think Nissan really put it all out there to get an affordable BEV to market (the Leaf) with the most range they could come up with for their target price. Neither my wife or I like how it looks.

    Remember Tesla has patents that other car companies might not want to buy into.
  • edited November -1
    I was all set to say how big auto is tied to big oil.

    Sudre, your post on Nissan and the Leaf, has me reconsidering.
  • edited November -1
    Nissan's venture with the Leaf was a gamble which might still come back to bite them. The reason I considered and rejected purchasing a Leaf was the limited range. It might work well as a second family car in a big city, but that limitation was enough to turn me off. I wish Nissan success but I am a reservation holder for a model S (85). Hopefully Tesla's, Nissan's and others' efforts are enough to obtain critical mass in EV purchasers, otherwise Tesla will remain a company producing a niche product. And as a future warranty holder, I wouldn't want that!
  • edited November -1
    paulehardy -- totally agree. The one thing that made me a convert from gas to electric was the range of Tesla's vehicles.
  • edited November -1
    The Nissan Leaf was built to a price. The lack of sufficient battery environment mgmt is coming back to bite them. I wouldn't want to be in Nissan's shoes a year or two from now.
  • irir
    edited November -1
    Seasoned entrepreneurs will admit that most startups fail. The successful ones owe much to luck and timing (as well as hard work, etc...).

    <h1>Fail Club</h1>

    Strapping a bunch of laptop batteries together might sound obvious in hindsight. But don't forget all the failures that came before:
    - perpetual motion machines
    - cold fusion
    - super capacitors
    - hydrogen fuel cells
    - arrays of NiCd laptop batteries

    Ballard Power was convinced that their fuel cell technology would be the key to EVs. Maybe hydrogen will unseat Tesla next year or next decade. Maybe we will all have Mr. Fusions by 2040. But today, it is an array of L-Ion laptop batteries in our Teslas and RAV4s.

    <h1>Timing is Everything</h1>

    Right idea at the wrong time is just as bad as the wrong idea at the wrong time. Every big car company has tinkered with EVs in the last decade or two. While they had some limited success, they were "ahead of their time". Had the laptop battery experiments used NiCd or NiMh a few years earlier, we wouldn't be having this discussion today.

    <h1>A Little Luck</h1>

    But instead they got lucky, L-Ion batteries just crossed into the practical energy density range.

    At the same time all the major automakers were distracted from EV research during this window. They were:
    - burned by failed EV projects
    - milking gas guzzler "cash cows" (SUVs, Humvees)
    - got in bed with big oil (hybrids still burn gas)
    - bankrupt (GM, Crysler)
    - fighting the hybrid wars (Toyota, Honda, Ford, just about every big car maker now)

    In essence, big auto "blinked" and overlooked this breakthrough while Tesla hit it dead on.
  • edited November -1
    You could also look at it as a perspective thing.

    The big boys built a car then adapted it to be electric. Tesla built the battery & power train, then molded the car around them.

    Who had the better vision? My money is, literally, on Tesla
  • edited November -1
    Will it be possible to build an EV in the near future at the Nissan Leaf price point with the range of a Model S?
    That might be a challenge.
  • edited November -1
    @ir Great Answer! I think this story will be studied and analyzed by MBA students for generations to come.

    So what happens next? Are the big guys going to be able to replicate what Tesla has done? Or will they just pay a VERY BIG premium to buy Tesla?
  • edited November -1
    paulehardy - GEN III
  • edited November -1
    @Mel - watch "Revenge of the Electric Car" and you will see Nissan's committment to BEVs to get the LEAF out. I am quite happy with mine (though if Tesla didn't take so long to finish the Model S I wouldn't have bought it), and I think the range is a great compromise -- 90% of people don't need more than it provides, and you aren't paying for a large battery (and hauling the weight around) that you only rarely use. My Model S has an 85kWh battery so I can drive it on out-of-town trips, but I considered getting a smaller battery and just renting a car a few times a year which would be a lot cheaper.

    @JZ13 - back to the original question, the big guys have lots of money and can hire smart people too. If they can't recreate it, they could easily just buy Tesla (being publicly traded that can't easily be stopped) if they decide they can't beat them -- Tesla has a total market cap of under $4B, while GM has $48B ($15B cash) and Ford has $49B ($8B cash). They also have advantages with supplier relationships and economies of scale, so if the technology ever gets equal then Tesla will have a hard time competing.
  • edited November -1
    @[email protected].com - yes, Gen III - but if it does not have the range close to a Model S, then it is just another Leaf. I hope you are correct.
  • edited November -1
    @paulehardy - My guess is that Gen III will match MS 40KW battery range as a minimum. I think they are after the current LEAF/Volt market space.
  • edited November -1
    @jat, I did see the movie, and I love Nissan for bringing out the Leaf.. I just feel that Big Auto would prefer to destroy Tesla.. I do not believe they will compete. Hopefully I am proven wrong... Anyway, my Tesla is the best car I have ever seen. Even when I am not going anywhere I have go look at , and then I have to sit in it... Interior, and the radio especially
    superior
  • edited November -1
    I was selling a start up a few years back and our competition came in to take a look. The major notebook guys were spinning their designs every six months. I believe they had three engineering teams each filling a revolving six month release window. We turned our design once a year using five engineers.

    One of our competitors brought in their VP of Engineering to evaluate the costs of finishing out current design spin. I was floored at the costs he was throwing around. My comment to them was "no wonder you guys have old technology and are not price competitive..... Everyone goes about building their own kingdom and efficiency suffers.

    The big guys are stocked with entrenched groups that defend their turf. These groups are bloated, lethargic and lack any meaningful ability to react. Tesla, on the other hand, exists to make that battery pack work with that set of body work in a single facility that serves only one purpose. Everyone was brought on to follow a singular vision.

    Vision => Personnel => Execution I've found that this is how thing get done.
  • edited November -1
    man I wish there was an edit button.....
  • edited November -1
    Well most startups fail but even the failed ones change the game if they had something worth pursuing...

    Tucker failed but was safer and more advanced than anything else on the market, most of the features of the the Tucker made it into the cars of the big three later on.

    Tesla will make it... and change the game... Will Elon sellout? I do not know - he did sell Paypal once it took off... but even if he does, Tesla will already have changed the game and we consumers will be better off for it.
  • edited November -1
    The big 3 didn't learn their lesson back in the late 70's when there were gas shortages. Efforts to improve mileage was thwarted by Bush Sr. when he removed goals for higher mileage cars. Then the SUV and Hummer boom took over. In the 2000's they got hit again by soaring gas prices and now unwanted gas guzzlers. Thanks to bankrupting themselves because of their ignorance and greed they were forced to finally make efficient cars that are also dependable. Tesla has been at the forefront of EV and now they are playing catch-up.
  • edited November -1
    Neech, your comment" Tesla has been at the forefront of EV and now they are playing catch up"

    If you think they are playing " catch up" it might be a long long long time. Do you really think they are building electric's?
  • edited November -1
    Djp -- Leaf market space will never be profitable at its current range. Tesla knows this. Gen III will have to be 60 at minimum, most likely 85 or above to make the breakthrough. I think the BMW 3 Series and Prius markets will be their primary focus to achieve mass adoption.
  • edited November -1
    I think GenIII affordable car success depends of SC network, and because SC network pretty much requires at least 60kWh Model S range that's the minimum for it. It should not be city car like Leaf to create large customer base.
  • edited November -1
    The Model S will outsell the Leaf, starting this year.
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