Model S

Who will be the 1st moron to report Tesla sales are down in the U.S.?

edited November -1 in Model S
Now that Tesla is shipping a large percentage of their production to Europe there will be fewer deliveries in the U.S. until sometime next year when they can increase production. I can see a headline now - "Tesla delivers fewer cars in the U.S. in Q3/Q4 - Are they running out of customers?" No doubt some moron will post this on or some other blog site. I look forward to it as a great buying oppotunity if the stock sells off due to a misleading report like this.


  • edited November -1
    I'm not sure that will happen though. Elon said recently Tesla is still production restrained. He also predicted Tesla will have profits in Q3 and Q4. By next year Asia shipment will start to pick up. The best time to buy is probably still now if anyone intends to own some Tesla stock.
  • edited November -1
    JZ13, point well taken.
    I saw an article about how the Tesla was the third most popular luxury sport in California. My first thought was "if we had more to sell, we would be number one."

    In California, people seem to be taking to the Model S in good numbers. I suspect we could double production and still sell out.
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    It wont matter, Seeking Alpha seems to publish more than 1 negative article on Tesla almost every day, and the stock stays up.

    The disinformation that people spew out on a constant basis... Looks like Tesla is really getting to people :)
  • edited November -1
    FOX news of course.
  • edited November -1
    Faux, Broder, Peterson ??
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    Friend of mine works at IBM and when he goes to the S.F. area to their office, he says there are quite a few parked there. Special considerations exist, of course, for the HOV lane and he says people really want to take advantage of that and it is a moderate helpful selling point.
  • edited November -1
    Well we can't say we didn't see this coming.
  • edited November -1
    @JZ13 it might very well be possible that sales in the US have dropped a little. I have read some of the articles. I among some others were offered early delivery of my Tesla. I declined as I have to pick up in July due to money availability.
    I think Tesla knew what it was doing expanding to Europe and China at the times that it did. By doing so they will continue to produce Model S at a high rate.
    I will be curious to see 1st Quarter results. My take in the long run Tesla will be a winner so if your like me you hold on to the stock for the long term.... I bought at 21 and plan to hold for a very long time.
  • edited November -1
    Are you calling Elon a moron??
  • edited November -1
    Sales = Deliveries. Doh!
  • edited November -1
    kimscar - Elon stated today that North American orders were up 10% in Q1. Demand is up, only supply of available cars is down.
  • edited November -1
    "Who will be the 1st moron to report Tesla sales are down in the U.S.?"

    That is what Tesla reported today. US sales are down.
  • edited November -1
    Tesla had to cancel a job fair in the Fremont factory Saturday morning because too many applicants were showing up that caused traffic back up on I880. Apparently they are seriously hiring. There is no other reason for doing that other than anticipating increased production need.
  • edited November -1
    Yes - lots of worldwide demand. It is just the US where demand is off. I also predict at some point everyone who can afford a MS in Norway will have one, and demand in that market will decrease as well.

    Lots of demand from China. I think there is large upside for European demand. RHD vehicles will open up more markets. HUGE backlog of reservations for the MS.

    Demand is VERY strong globally.

    Once they increase production and meet current demand, they can take steps to increase demand. In the US, that could be superchargers, new features (like AWD), advertising, range improvement - all sorts of things.

    Still, I think it is unfair to call Elon a moron for reporting that sales are down in the US.
  • edited November -1
    The analysts should remember that all other car companies count a "sale" to a dealer as a sale, even though there may never be an end customer. Dealers have to guess what options and colors will sell.

    Tesla has an incredible competitive advantage with the ability for the customer to configure exactly what they want before it goes into production. They have a deposit to help with cash flow, and payment when the car goes out the door. Couple that with a huge following of loyal customers, and service centers all there to make sure your experience is the best it can be, and free charging nationwide, you have to wonder why anyone who can afford a Tesla would not buy one.

    I often participate in ride and drive events where I let people drive my Model S. As you all know, they are all blown away. Last week, I gave a test drive to a Honda executive and a State Representative, who were clearly amazed with the car. At the same event, a local Cadillac dealer showed off the new Cadillac ELR. When people asked for a test drive or ride, they were told they would have to come to their dealership!

    Those waiting for the tipping point don't realize that it was last year.
  • edited November -1

    think you need to learn what demand, sales and deliveries mean in the world of tesla...

    first, you characterization of demand by looking at deliveries is wrong. you can't get the demand from the deliveries.

    tesla sales=deliveries as they are production constrained. their orders in US increased 10%, but deliveries were not met due to needing to satisfy lead times in Europe. They produced over 1000 cars more than they sold because they had to fill the pipeline to china.

    reduction in sales in US doesn't mean reduction in demand.
  • edited November -1
    The depletion of early adopters will be more than compensated by new potential customers who did not have a chance to learn what MS really is before. Even here in the Silicon Valley I have demo'd, in the last month and half since I got the car, to a dozen or so people who did not know much about it. Just one of them ordering an MS could make the sales trend to continue.
  • edited November -1
    Hmmm... I'd say it would be the Wall Street Journal. The same day, The Motley Fool will cosign that. Later the same day, The Young Turks and Green Car Reports will point out how stupid they both are being. Two or three days later, Reuters and Bloomberg will report on how stupid WSJ is being. Meanwhile, the stock will dip around 1.2%, before surging 6% two days later. Just like always.
  • edited November -1
    @eddie - You are correct, demand and deliveries are not the same thing. Demand can be approximated by deliveries when wait time remains relatively constant, which it has.

    I do not believe US deliveries are production constrained, since confirmation-to-delivery times have remained relatively constant. If US deliveries were constrained by production, I would expect longer wait times.

    Not sure if they reported production numbers, but I think they said they increased 15% to almost 700 per week during the quarter. Take "almost 700" to mean 675. If that is up 15%, then figure they were at 575 at the beginning of the quarter, for a weekly average of 625/week. 13 weeks in the quarter that would be about 8125 produced in the quarter. Deliveries were about 6500, right? That means they produced 1600 more cars than they sold - 1000 on the boat to China, and the other 600 represent a net increase in "on the boat" to Europe and other existing markets as well as expansion to the sales and loaner fleet.

    Reduction in deliveries in the US does mean a reduction in demand if the wait time remains constant - which IMHO is has.

    @carlk - there has been a dramatic fall-off of sales in CA. CA registrations have been posted in other threads, and the number have declined significantly. IIRC, the decline in US sales is mostly CA, with the rest of the country flat. I look at the US as 3 markets - Mature (CA), other strongholds (TX, AZ, WA, NY/MA, Atlanta, and a few others), and new markets (everywhere else). CA is declining (pent-up demand has been satisfied), strongholds are solid, and new markets represent untapped potential.
  • edited November -1
    People kept saying that the world was flat. It didn't make it so. Clearly you haven't even read yesterday's report which tells you in bold that production for Q1 was 7535. Go on to read that NA demand was up 10%. Pontificate all you want--the fact remains that demand was up for the first three months of 2014--not flat or declining. Stop confusing demand with deliveries and then using legerdemain to suggest that wait times support your faulty hypotheses.

    Ticket for admission to this thread should include having read this...'14 Shareholder Letter final.pdf
  • edited November -1
    7535 is an average of 580 a week. Either they have greatly increased production recently, or "close to 700/wk" is subject to interpretation of what "close to" means.

    Yes, yes - believe that demand has increased over the last 9 months if you like. Not sure why they sold 1000 cars less though, and the line did not grow.

    Do you think they will produce an average of 700/wk in Q2 since production is "close to 700"? That would be 9100 in Q2.

    35,000 deliveries in 2014. About half went to the US in Q1. I expect that to fall throughout the year. That would put US sales in 2014 well below 2013 levels.

    Do you agree that US sales have dropped over the past 12 months?
  • edited November -1
    <b>PDF (3.7 MB):</b> <a href="'14 Shareholder Letter final.pdf&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Tesla Motors, Inc. – First Quarter 2014 Shareholder Letter</b></a>

    Thanks, <b>Bighorn</b>!
  • edited November -1
    Everybody should start ignoring tes-s , pure misinformation with the intent
    To gain from it.

    You either take a Elon at face value, and reject tes-s, or otherwise
    You believe tes-s and believe Elon is a fraud.
  • edited November -1
    Elon stated during his conference call that Model S production is sold out through Q2 and that US net orders are 10% higher than the previous quarter, which shows growth and increasing domestic demand. Obviously Tesla did not ship that many cars domestically because supply was routed elsewhere, but the fact that orders are up 10% and they are sold out through the end of Q2 tells me that they are doing very well in the US.

    We must also judge Tesla by the actions it is currently taking, which is centered on growth. Tesla is not looking in the rear view mirror, they are not even remotely concerned with demand. Their concerns lie with infrastructure, being able to deliver a great car in volume, and gigafactory coming online in time for Gen 3. I didn't see anywhere any concern whatsoever about sales slowing down anywhere.

    My takeaway - Tesla is doing better than ever. Wall Street, in its typical fashion, doesn't get it.
  • edited November -1
    You continually state wait times have not increased. Was that mentioned yesterday? Or are you analyzing data from a forum based on? Also...wait time...increase/decrease...we aren't talking about much of an increase in wait time to absorb a 10% increase in demand combined with a reduction in available vehicles. If someone had to wait an extra day or two? I'm not sure I don't have all the numbers. But this "no increase in wait time" does not translate into a decrease in demand. As an engineer I would need more data than "there has been no increase in wait time and therefore demand is down".
    Plus when the CEO says there was a 10% increase in orders...ya think he's not telling the truth? Because that sounds like an increase in demand. Not sure your motivation with sticking to your story???

    Anyone have the "call" in a pdf format...last time someone was able to do that and it was great!
    Anyone have the "call" in a pdf format...last time someone was able to do that and it was great!
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