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Will range increase substantially on Model S in 2015?

arunjain_92750920arunjain_92750920
edited November -1 in Model S
I am contemplating buying a Model S - 85kWh but read somewhere on a forum that the Model S might be upgraded to 400-500 mile range in 2015. Are there any clues from Tesla that this might happen and/or is it even likely to have such a big jump in range without significantly impacting the price? Because if the rumors are true, I would rather wait until 2015. Thanks.
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Comments

  • TâmTâm
    edited November -1
    Tesla is usually tight-lipped on a specific number or time line.

    It does go public that

    1) it is possible for a longer range battery right now but the cost is prohibitive.

    2) any improvement is incremental.

    Rumors remain rumors for now!
  • Captain_ZapCaptain_Zap
    edited November -1
    It is all wishful thinking from members of the forum at this point.

    We like to drop loud hints to Tesla about what we think might be a great "pie-in-the-sky" car. Sometimes they deliver.
  • minervo.florida_628313minervo.florida_628313
    edited November -1
    That range is not needed for most drivers. As Elon said, you are carrying around a lot of extra weight for it to be seldom, if ever needed.
  • KozKoz
    edited November -1
    It makes sense that they would develop a larger pack for the X or bump up the current pack sizes. From a pricing and sales perspective, a third larger size seems likely. From a cost and simplicity of operations, two sizes makes more sense. I'm guessing they offer a larger pack size in conjunction with the X. This would be a higher cost option. All speculation at this point and if one of the current pack sizes works well for you then there wouldn't be much advantage to waiting.
  • tes-stes-s
    edited November -1
    Will computers be faster in 2015? Since I bought my MS 9 months ago, there are folding mirrors, parking sensors, more superchargers, etc. 19,000 happy miles; I'm glad I didn't wait.

    It is technology and will continue to improve over time.
  • Andrew_OH_70DAndrew_OH_70D
    edited November -1
    I think for the vast majority of drivers, the current range is more than adequate. The Supercharger network obviates the need for larger battery packs.

    I would rather see the price of the Model S and Model X dropped so that more people can afford them. This weekend I volunteered at a Green Energy ride and drive event. Every person wanted the car, but cited the price as the major drawback. When the Model E comes out, the Supercharger network should be fully built out. With 200 mile range, demand should be incredible.
  • CraigWCraigW
    edited November -1
    IMO, the Supercharger network is Elon's secret weapon against the car dealers and big oil. Once in they will be hard-pressed to do anything to stop Tesla. Car manufactures might as well pay Tesla an upfront fee, allowing their upcoming EVs to the Tesla network, instead of trying to build their own. An effective EV network will be a requirement, once Tesla has theirs built out.
  • TI SailorTI Sailor
    edited November -1
    I believe I've read the 2 motors in the Model X will be different, with the front motor having less power but a "higher gear". I'm not an engineer but I take that to mean at highway cruising speeds the front motor will be used for its higher efficiency, e.g., improved range, while at lower speeds the rear motor will be used for its greater torque. Presumably the AWD Model S will leverage those differences as well.
  • thranxthranx
    edited November -1
    @Tes-s;+1. If I'd kept waitin for the next computer upgrade, I'd still be working on a Zenith b&w laptop.

    Get it now, and enjoy it, says I.
  • NO2PTRLNO2PTRL
    edited November -1
    I say buy and enjoy this car now, why wait for the iPhone 8 when you can enjoy amazing technology right now.

    Besides, in three to five years Tesla could provide an economic trade out for a new battery.
  • ghillairghillair
    edited November -1
    Lets remember that Tesla is production constrained based on available batteries. If by 2020 they are selling 500k MEs then they will be using all of the batteries from the gigafactory.

    To produce a bigger battery pack will mean a trade off with total number of cars that can be produced.
  • kawdenniskawdennis
    edited November -1
    Kaptain_Zap. +1. I fell for that April 1st post about a $5,000 up grade with larger battery and it would go 0-60 mph in 2.6 seconds. It took me about 10 seconds to realize it was April fools day
  • bevguybevguy
    edited November -1
    An increased range for the S is unlikely anytime soon. Musk has stated that 400 mile range is possible now. But it would be expensive, take more batteries meaning fewer cars could be sold, and mean less performance due to the extra weight. Anything more than modest increase will wait for better batteries and cheaper batteries ( ie the gigafactory)
    An increased range isn't needed as a selling point, there's a waiting list now.
  • AmpedRealtorAmpedRealtor
    edited November -1
    When Elon toured the EU a couple of months ago, during one of his QA sessions he specifically mentioned that higher capacity batteries may be available as soon as later this year. I don't think he would have said this if it weren't somewhere on the product roadmap.

    I believe we will see higher range numbers for Model S in 2015, as higher energy density becomes achievable at the current price point. Tesla will need to keep the Model S fresh and attractive, and the most obvious way to do this is to improve its range without raising the price. I believe we will see a range bump with Model S 1.5, which will probably hit next year in 2015.

    All speculation. :)
  • Jonathan DJonathan D
    edited November -1
    If battery prices dropped so dramatically that it was feasible to have such a range at a reasonable price, you could always just upgrade the battery in a few years anyway, especially if they make it easy at a battery swap location.
  • YmeYme
    edited November -1
    What the people say..

    Cheaper car and less range? Not so sure this is a good idea.

    It should be easy to draw a parallel between sales figures for 60 vs 85 kW sales and the publics "need" for greater range.

    I would think Tesla will adapt to the opportunity and deliver better range as soon as the possibly can.
  • hsadlerhsadler
    edited November -1
    Seriously?
    A company would say "we have a much better product coming out next year. But in the meantime, purchase this one - which will be obsolete by then." ???
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited November -1
    I seriously doubt it since Model X to be released late 14'/early 15' is still spec'd at 85kWh and 60kWh. MS and MX range may be bumped up to 300~400 when ME with 200 range is released in 17' to justify the higher price though.

    There is really no point of waiting. Same as PC's and smart phones there will always be newer and better models coming out, and even better models coming out after that. The good thing about MS is you likely will be able to exchange to a higher range new battery pack in the future at a cost much less than what we are paying now. That is if you need to do that.
  • NO2PTRLNO2PTRL
    edited November -1
    I know that by 2018 the model S will be manufactured with a much better battery than today, let alone the overall improvements, but that didn't stop me from buying my P85 and enjoying it RIGHT NOW.

    Battery experts are calling for a 8% to 10% improvement per year.
    That could mean a 360 mile battery by 2016, but that's not enough to trade out my old one. Would wait for a 500 mile battery.

    Tomorrow, everything is always better than today, but WHY wait?
  • Thom EMThom EM
    edited November -1
    Until there is a breakthrough in battery technology and pricing, don't hold your breath. The Model S battery is about as large as it can get physically, so more range would require a new technology or giving up some space. Until there is a new manufacturing capability (gigafactory?), cost will scale with larger range. You could get a current technology battery with 170 kWh capacity, but it will cost you $50,000-ish and won't fit in a Model S.

    By the time a new technology becomes available, you can probably get an battery upgrade installed for much less than the cost of the entire battery, since the old one can be reconditioned (and resold). My service center told me this weekend that they are upgrading a Roadster battery for about $10,000.
  • NO2PTRLNO2PTRL
    edited November -1
    "My service center told me this weekend that they are upgrading a Roadster battery for about $10,000."

    There you go, with the 8% to 10% improvement in battery capacity every year on average, it won't be to many years until we can do the same to our MS's.

    In the mean time, drive it like you stole it.
  • donaldmeacham1_45408donaldmeacham1_45408
    edited November -1
    The current 85kWh battery provides me with 100% of my daily driving needs. My longest trip is 200 miles. I have a home at both ends of the trip so I don't charge anywhere but home. I make this trip 3-4 times per month. The rest of my driving is 160 miles per day or less. We don't do many longer trips in any vehicle.
  • eddiemoyeddiemoy
    edited November -1
    tesla isn't using the most dense 18650's out there as the cost is prohibative. if they were to increase the battery to 500miles, it would be the same form factor, just the cells would be using the higher density. again, it is possible now, but would you pay an extra 40-50k to get that extra range?

    elon mention that there wont be a change to the battery density offered anytime soon. what ever that means!
  • mb30mb30
    edited November -1
    I think using the new tech (cell phone, computer etc...) and saying not to wait because you'll always be chasing the next thing is not really appropriate when talking about a $70k+ car. I upgrade my phone every year, whereas most people probably dont do the same for their car. I think if people really want to wait for the next major improvement they'll have to ride it out for the gigafactory. That will drive price down and will allow Tesla to offer higher range MSs in similar price points. I suspect that when E is released with maybe 48/60 pack options, you'll also have a 85/~120 option in the S. Giving maybe 200/260 for the E and 300/400 in the S. Of course im just talking out of my ass, but it seems to make sense to me :)
  • Mark KMark K
    edited November -1
    To the essence of the OP's question -

    Sometimes we are on the cusp of quantum improvement, and it makes sense to wait until just after the change.

    For Model S, this is not one of those times.

    The first improvement will be a higher capacity pack, but at a higher price. If you don't need the extra range, it's a waste of money.

    After several years, the capacity of Model S at the current prices will drift higher, around the time of Model E.

    In the meantime, that would be a lot of money to burn in gas for waiting.

    The car is awesome today, and may even save your life.

    Deferring isn't living well.
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