Model X

Model X Delay. What is taking so long?

edited November -1 in Model X
Article in USA today and various media outlets

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/10/16/tesla-model-x-delay/17366215/

I bet it's the falcon wing doors that are taking so long. It can't be easy to get those just right. Maybe they are re-designing something?
Any ideas?
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Comments

  • edited November -1
    I am not sure that there will be much of a delay. The next earnings call is November 4th, and something might be said at that point, since there is only two and a half months left before the end of the year as of today anyway.

    I am willing to wait, because the thought of driving the car at some point in the near future is enough to retain my enthusiasm.

    One thing that is certain, is that most of the initial signature deliveries will be geographically close to the factory. Elon has said this in a recent interview. The reason is that with any new product, there may be manufacturing problems in the first few batches. The same was done with Model S, and things have worked out well with minimal problems. With the first deliveries near the factory, it will be easier to recall the vehicles to the factory to address any issues that might occur.

    I am close to 3000 on the list (if one includes all the US signatures.), so I should get mine within the first couple of months once deliveries begin in earnest.
  • edited November -1
    Not sure what's taking so long, but I REALLY wish Tesla would make an official announcement either way.
  • edited November -1
    Just say something Elon. How do you have this whole big modified S Hawthorne hype build up and then show, and not say a peep to the thousands patiently waiting with their order in on your next big thing???
  • edited November -1
    If they are going to begin deliveries in Q4, shouldn't there be MXs in Tesla stores by now?

    I bet they are having trouble with something and need to re-design. Making an automobile from the ground up is freakin hard to do! Even more difficult with new technology that is rapidly changing.

    Or maybe they are waiting on a new battery geometry to fit more into the battery case so the MX has similar range as the MS.
    Thoughts?
  • edited November -1
    Deliveries are not happening in Q4. Be lucky to have a handful out before Q2 '15.
  • edited November -1
    I did take it as something of a slight when he didn't even mention it at "The Event". I realize everyone was just guessing as to what his tweet meant, but, come on, to hint at 'something else' and not even mention the X, that's just plain cruel.
  • I am pretty sure the Falcon wings are the hold up and that they will make production. I wonder if Tesla ever considered a normal door combined with a rear hinged half door for a clam shell opening like the old RX8? It seems that that would solve a lot of issues and be a viable alternative to a sliding minivan door.
  • edited November -1
    @Jonathangarner- Do you have a link to a picture of the type of door you are talking about?
  • edited November -1
    If they have too much trouble with the falcon wing doors, maybe they could make the doors open like they do on Koenigsegg cars. That would allow people to put roof racks on their MXs.

    http://www.koenigsegg.com/models/agera-s/
  • edited November -1
    I am still puzzled at why so many people are assuming that it is the falcon wing doors that are the holdup on the X. When I look at the overall picture, the doors seem to be the easiest issue to design. There are other issues that seem more likely to cause delays.

    The first, of course, is battery supply. Right now, the supply of batteries from Panasonic is just enough to supply the MS product line, and that product line has to be sustained at its current level for economic reasons. Once Panasonic increases the allotment for Tesla, or Sanyo steps in, or the gigafactory comes online, then the battery bottleneck will not be an issue.

    The next issue has been the dual motor drive. We have just recently seen this issue resolved with the D, but only recently. Dual motor drive with no mechanical linkage is a very complex issue, and the Tesla patents for this were only filed a couple of months ago. Just read through the patents to see what a complex issue this has been.

    The other issue which may be delaying things are the side mirrors. If I were Elon, and I wanted the X to have blow-your-socks-off styling and increased range, I would want to wait for the approval of the side cameras. Sure, the X could be released without it, but given that approval is only months away, would you want an X now, just to have a side camera version be released a couple of months later?

    I'll also add in a delay from the ever present unknown issue, which I'm sure exists that I just haven't thought of.

    As much as I dislike the delays, after seeing personally the amazing jump in technology at the D event, I'm convinced that the X release will be another impressive jump in technology, and I'm convinced the wait will be worth it.

    Ron
    SigX #1015
  • jjsjjs
    edited November -1
    +1 Ron
  • edited November -1
    FWIW, I believe the side mirrors are NOT a relevant risk, either way. They aren't integral structure.

    The camera-side mirrors can be retrofitted, from what I've observed. Hey, Tesla has already demonstrated an ability to retrofit significant design changes into all model so's through the auto-retract retrofit.

    In fact, I suspect camera side mirrors WILL be retro-fittable components for model s and x. I doubt they would require significant effort.
  • edited November -1
    <b>@danny&lt;/b>, I hate to disagree with you, but I can't imagine Tesla retrofitting cameras on the MS. They would have to put in the wiring from the door all the way to the console requiring the whole front dash and side door to be to be dismantled and removed. It doesn't seem to be very simple considering it wasn't designed to work that way from the start.

    If they implement the MX with side camera capability, then it would be fairly straight forward to switch them after delivery. However, if that's not designed up front, then I can't see them retrofitting them after delivery.

    My brother has one of the original MS without the self-folding, motorized side-mirrors. He can't get it retrofitted - he would need to get a whole new vehicle. I expect cameras to be tons more complicated than the motorized side mirrors.
  • edited November -1
    Time will tell. I've read narratives from folks on these forums that have had the motorized mirrors retrofitted.
  • edited November -1
    Hard to speculate since we don't know where the feed from these side-view cameras are displayed. I expect somewhere close to the lower front corners of the front windows, otherwise the user experience would be too different.

    When the side-view cameras do make it into production vehicles, I'm sure Tesla will integrate them into the safety and auto-pilot systems.
  • edited November -1
    It costs very little to install wiring and set aside fuse positions for likely future add ons. Might require a terminating circuit board substitution but that should be easy. If and when the time comes.

    They should have done that in model S for the sonar, camera and radar add-ons for retrofits IMO.
  • edited November -1
    I believe the delay is a) because the range of the vehicle is much less than required. The expectations for an SUV must be at least as much as the S because the SUV will be expected to go to places without superchargers (like national parks). However, with the larger body and the higher profile I think they are having trouble achieving even minimum numbers. How high does an SUV have to be above the ground? 8 inches, 10 inches? This is one of the risks you take when you market a minivan as an SUV.

    Also b) because people will expect to be able to take this car off road (
    SUV get it?) the battery is going to need to be reinforced from below for its entire length. That's a lot of titanium.

    They may be mulling over rebranding the car as a minivan or utility van. Then they could lower the profile and keep it under 6 inches. They still hit the target market. They also don't have to reinforce the battery shield more than they do today.

    This, of course, is just as much speculation as all the other reasons and there is no facts in back of it (other than the physics of air resistance).
  • edited November -1
    "the battery is going to need to be reinforced from below for its entire length"

    Not really. The titanium shield protects the battery from things getting jammed when going highway speeds. I doubt you would need titanium shields for off-roading.

    That said, I don't think Tesla is advertising it as an off-roading vehicle. BTW, It's a CUV, not an SUV.

    "They may be mulling over rebranding the car as a minivan or utility van."

    Huh? No. They don't want it to feel like a minivan.

    "Then they could lower the profile and keep it under 6 inches. "

    There's no way they would make such a drastic change at this point.
  • edited November -1
    Given that the Tesla design studio quotes a 2-3 months delivery after order for premium MSs, I suppose that an early November announcement of the MX will likely push first Signature deliveries until February - at least.

    There are more than 20,000 reservations (~$140 million in deposits) that are starving for real news and opportunities to see the X. That's a lot of pent-up frustration with the delays.

    Would I buy my SigX without a chance to see or drive it? Well, ...probably ...yes. But, that's not very good customer service and I hope that doesn't happen.

    At least with all the delays the X will likely have all the autopilot features available in the S upgrade.

    Also, no matter what performance options are available, I live where there are a lot of potholes and it's the 19" wheels for me.
  • edited November -1
    All the images of the Model X on the website show side view cameras now instead of mirrors. Maybe they've worked it out with the regulators?
  • edited November -1
    <b>ronmerkford</b> wrote, <i>"The other issue which may be delaying things are the side mirrors. If I were Elon, and I wanted the X to have blow-your-socks-off styling and increased range, I would want to wait for the approval of the side cameras."</i>

    In terms of design, I'm pretty sure the biggest delay with the Tesla Model X has been to get an exemption on the rear view mirrors being replaced with cameras.

    <b>ronmerkford</b> wrote, <i>"Sure, the X could be released without it, but given that approval is only months away, would you want an X now, just to have a side camera version be released a couple of months later?"</i>

    Precisely. Tesla Motors does pay attention to their Customers. The uproar over people wanting the automatically folding mirrors last year, but missing the cut, was bad... The idiocy that ensued when Tesla released vehicles with upgraded hardware for Autopilot a few weeks ago further displays how unreasonable people can be about options being different from one car to the next.

    <hr width="60%">

    <b>David Trushin</b> suggested, <i>"Also b) because people will expect to be able to take this car off road (SUV get it?) the battery is going to need to be reinforced from below for its entire length. That's a lot of titanium."</i>

    I would expect that the <i>'X'</i> in Model X stands for <i>'Crossover'</i>, as in CUV -- <i>Crossover Utility Vehicle</i>. It is not an SUV -- <i>Sport Utility Vehicle</i> -- at all. I do not believe that Tesla Motors will be marketing it as an off-road vehicle, at least not to start. No fording rivers and streams, no spelunking over rocks, no bounding over whoop-de-doos are in the immediate future for the Model X.

    Should it have better road clearance than the Model S? Sure. I expect that the air suspension on the Model X will cover a greater range than the Model S. But I also think that its <i>'LOW'</i> setting will be about the same. The Model X will compete primarily with cars that will rarely see lawn, pasture, or dirt road duty. It may be used on gravel from time to time, but almost always will be on paved roads, whether cobblestone, concrete, or asphalt.

    <hr width="60%">

    <b>rossRallen</b> wrote, <i>"Also, no matter what performance options are available, I live where there are a lot of potholes and it's the 19" wheels for me."</i>

    I hope for your sake that 19" wheels are available. I rather suspect that wheels for the Model X will climb to as much as 24" in some trim levels.

    <hr width="60%">

    I do think that Tesla Motors hopes to expedite and accelerate everything they do from this point forward. They know that people are rather peeved by waiting for the Model X. They know that Naysayers are doing their level best to discourage everyone that will listen.

    I believe that if so many with the option of requesting a Signature Series Model X are seeing 2014 on the dashboard, it is very possibly either: 1) a glitch...; or 2) Tesla Motors really intends to get them to you by Christmas.

    Didn't someone mention that there are executive stock option incentives for Elon Musk getting Model X out the door to Customers before the end of this year?
  • edited November -1
    RS;
    Elon (IIRC has made some fairly ambitious claims about MX off-roading, albeit not full-bore cross-country stuff. We'll see. I doubt it will be purely a soccer mom's dream.
  • edited November -1
    edit: Elon (IIRC) has made ...
  • edited November -1
    If you look at the model x page it clearly says SUV not CUV, although it doesn't specify what aspects of an SUV it will have. However , just extrapolating from the rampant speculation that goes on at this forum, i am almost certain that there is someone who expects the x to have the off road capability of a mars rover.

    Besides, what is a CUV anyway, a small station wagon?
  • edited November -1
    The C in CUV is crossover, which is vague but generally considered to be a utility vehicle built on a car platform. SUV is traditionally built on a truck platform.
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