General

Supercharging ISSUES by ICE vehicles continue to worsen in some area

24

Comments

  • edited November -1
    @ SamO | March 11, 2015

    <i>@Grinnin'

    <i>Your fear and anxiety are internally generated and not a product of Tesla's business model.

    I did NOT generate this thread or submit any reports of seeing ICEing. Other MS owners did that. I'm still in my first week of owning an S85D, and I haven't yet visited an SC. That will change.

    <i>... you need to do a bit more "analysis" and a bit less "handwaving".

    <i>Show your work and I'll consider changing my mind.

    Possibly you missed my previous posts on the subject. Taking you at your word, here goes:

    I made a spreadsheet to estimate the number of SCs needed and their costs based on the number of SC-compatible cars on the road and various other assumptions:

    * SC Fee Up Front: $2,000
    * SC Uses per Month per Car: 3
    * Avg Charge Time (min): 50 -- paired stalls both in use for busy periods
    * kWh per Charge: 50
    * Electricity Cost / kWh: $0.10
    * Days per Mo: 30
    * Peak Day/Avg Day: 2, meaning that busy days see twice as much SC ues as average days
    *
  • edited November -1
    Sorry, but I hit the wrong button. My SC assumptions continue:

    * Users on Peak Day: 18.0%
    * Busy Hours per Day: 10.0 -- 1/10 of SC use on busy day in peak hour
    * Stalls/SC Site: 8
    * Capital Cost/Stall: $30,000
    * Operational Cost/Stall/Yr: $1,000
    * Average utilization of SC capacity in busy hour on busy day: 66.7%

    Basic Results from M/M/m Queuing Theory:

    * Average Waiting for an available stall: 3.3 minutes.
    * Probability User Must Wait for service in busy hour on busy day: 22%
    * The SC system should about pay for itself, <b>provided</b> SC stalls are NOT used for any purpose other than SC charging during the busy hours on busy days. (Moderate ICEing would require more SC capacity to avoid significant increases in waiting for SC charging service, costing more than $2000 per car.)

    OK, SamO, it's your turn. Please critique my assumptions or methods and tell us about the details of your analysis.

    BTW, I can provide technical detail and/or explanations for my analysis if/as desired.
  • edited November -1
    No horror stories here.

    There are thousands of Model S cars in the region, but not many cars are doing the 150+ mile intercity trips routinely. I doubt that there has ever been a wait for a Supercharger within 1000 miles in any direction.
  • edited November -1
    @Grinnin',

    1. ICEing NOW

    You wrote "Your experience is NOT what we should expect in 2016 and beyond."

    But then you wrote "I did NOT generate this thread or submit any reports of seeing ICEing. Other MS owners did that. "

    So which is it? We have an ICEing problem or NOT. I say NOT.

    Have I run into ICEing?

    Yes. Especially right after Culver City was complete but before the red paint went in, the week before Christmas. Since then, I haven't seen a single ICE car there.

    Anecdotal? YES.

    Consistent with other heavy users reports? CLEARLY.

    So we agree that there is NO ICEING PROBLEM in March 2015.

    2. You then make a claim that there will be waits based on queueing theory. This is FAR DIFFERENT THAN ICEING. But, I've noted your assumptions and mine are in [BLOCKS].

    * SC Fee Up Front: $2,000 [YES]
    * SC Uses per Month per Car: 3 [1-2]
    * Avg Charge Time (min): 50 -- paired stalls both in use for busy periods [ACTUAL AVERAGE TIME SPENT IS 28 MINUTES. SEE SUPERCHARGER DASHBOARD PHOTOS]
    * kWh per Charge: 50 [45. SEE SUPERCHARGER DASHBOARD PHOTOS]
    * Electricity Cost / kWh: $0.10 [OK, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE BATTERIES AND SOLAR INSTALLED AND BEING INSTALLED]
    * Days per Mo: 30 [OK]
    * Peak Day/Avg Day: 2, meaning that busy days see twice as much SC ues as average days [OK]
    * Users on Peak Day: 18.0% [MORE LIKE 5-10%]
    * Busy Hours per Day: 10.0 -- 1/10 of SC use on busy day in peak hour [OK BUT I SUSPECT IT'S LESS WITHOUT SPECIFIC EVIDENCE]
    * Stalls/SC Site: 8 [OK]
    * Capital Cost/Stall: $30,000 [ELON WAS QUOTED AT $150,000 BUT . . .OK]
    * Operational Cost/Stall/Yr: $1,000 [OK]
    * Average utilization of SC capacity in busy hour on busy day: 66.7% [10% SYSTEM WIDE UTILIZATION MAX]

    Take a look at some photos from the Hawthorne Supercharger Dashboard where they've been posting utilization stats for the past 18 months and which is where they show time spent charging and amount of electricity per car delivered.

    Here are some images that might help in your research:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+supercharger+dashboard&safe=off&es_sm=91&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=srMAVeJHgbKhBNSFgdgI&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAQ&biw=1280&bih=654
  • edited November -1
    SamO;
    The $30K was meant per stall, and the $150K per station, which would work out to average 5 stalls per station.
  • edited November -1
    @brianH,

    But grinnin' assumes 8 stalls making the price $240,000.
  • edited November -1
    Inclusive and ubiquitous. Common.

    <i><u>NOT</u></I> exclusive and rare. <i><u>NOT</u></I> Lordly.

    There will be no <I>'gated communities'</I> of Superchargers. Instead, Supercharger Stations may grow in time to be Tesla Depot/Waypoint locations with multiple Superchargers, along with HPWCs, set up to service the needs of EV travelers. With a lounge, gallery, lavatories, food court, and Service Center on hand. Possibly also a car wash and battery swap installation.

    It would be open to the public, twenty-four hours a day, and ICE owners would be welcome to stop by... Either by accident or to satiate curiosity. But there would be no sales of gasoline, diesel, alcohol, tobacco, or firearms & ammunition on the premises. No need to scare people off when you can use the opportunity to educate them about the glory of electric cars.
  • edited November -1
    Tesla is at the mercy of the property owners. Tesla cannot dictate policy to someone who is doing Tesla a big favor by allowing Superchargers on their property. The easiest and lowest cost solution is to improve the visibility of signage and pavement markings. Tesla will not be installing gates or any of that kind of stuff in parking spaces. That's just silly.
  • edited November -1
    I am suggesting a gated, fenced area because of the ICEing and also for security.
    A Tesla driver was robbed of his car and possessions in Barstow. The Ft Tejon Supercharger continues to be papered by Jehovah's Witnesses. Security needs to be addressed in some way.
    ~Larry
  • edited November -1
    Tesla seems to have several different stall configurations.

    1) Chargers are at the back of the stall.
    2) Chargers are on the side of the stall half way back.
    3) Chargers are on the side of the stall at the front.

    2 and 3 will allow a Tesla to double park an ICE which I wouldn't hesitate to do in a heartbeat even if it meant I had to sit there for 20 minutes waiting for my fuel.

    Tesla should avoid configuration problem 1 wherever it can.

    Perhaps cones can be put in the stalls and Tesla owners know they can remove them and put them back when they leave. Most of the time, an ICE isn't going to go through the hassle of getting out of there car to remove a cone when the could park elsewhere.

    BTW, the first time a Tesla gets towed for double parking an ICE, that will be a media s*%) storm.

    Is there an extension cable that would work with the SC that could be kept in the rear bin for ICE storms to help with configuration 1 above?
  • edited November -1
    @ SamO | March 11, 2015

    <i>@Grinnin',
    <i>You wrote "Your experience is NOT what we should expect in 2016 and beyond."
    <i>But then you wrote "I did NOT generate this thread or submit any reports of seeing ICEing. Other MS owners did that. "
    <i>So which is it? We have an ICEing problem or NOT. I say NOT.

    You seem to think there is something inconsistent in my statements. Please reread them. There is no inconsistency! OTHERS have reported IECing.

    <i>Have I run into ICEing?
    <i>Yes. Especially right after Culver City was complete but before the red paint went in, the week before Christmas. Since then, I haven't seen a single ICE car there.

    That's pretty much what I'd expect.

    <i>So we agree that there is NO ICEING PROBLEM in March 2015.

    Others disagree with you. BTW, you just disagreed with yourself. (Please reread above.)

    <i>You then make a claim that there will be waits based on queueing theory. This is FAR DIFFERENT THAN ICEING.

    My previous post explicitly addressed this. I built a queuing model without ICEing. That's a best-case model. And I said that the results would be worse with ICEing. I don't have credible data describing the amount of ICEing to expect. If I had such data, I'd build a model with queuing and ICEing.

    <i>But, I've noted your assumptions and mine are in [BLOCKS].

    <i>* SC Uses per Month per Car: 3 [1-2]

    My estimate amounts to about 5000 miles on the road per year per car. I read a report that Tesla owners are driving about one-third of their <b>annual miles</b> on road trips.

    <i>* Avg Charge Time (min): 50 -- paired stalls both in use for busy periods [ACTUAL AVERAGE TIME SPENT IS 28 MINUTES. SEE SUPERCHARGER DASHBOARD PHOTOS]

    The Supercharger page says SCs provide about 170 miles charging in "as little as 30 minutes". That is for charging at maximum of 120 kW, which can work ONLY when charging a stall with its paired stall NOT in use. Under heavy load, I expect that most of the stalls to be in use most of the time. In that situation, the maximum charge rate is 67.5 kW. Then I'd guess that it would take closer to an hour to get a 170-mile charge. Anyway, at the maximum of 120 kW, an SC could deliver 56 kWh in 28 minutes. At roughly 3 miles per kWh, that would give a range of about 168 miles. That's the best it can get with the current MS and SC.

    My experience is limited to one visit to an SC. I arrived with 188 miles showing on my charging screen. One of eight stalls was occupied. Of course, I selected one of the stalls that wasn't paired with that stall. I charged up to 221 range miles. That's 33 miles; it took 13 minutes. That's 2.54 miles per minute. At that rate, 150 miles should take about an hour. Since, the batteries charge faster when they are run down to a more typical level for SC charging, I'd estimate that a typical 150-mile SC charge would take something between 30 and 40 minutes <b>if</b> the other stall of its pair weren't in use, but at least 50 minutes if the other stall of its pair were occupied. After review, I stick with my 50-minute charging time for typical MS cars charging at heavily used SCs. Can someone who has charged at a SC at a stall with another MS at its paired stall please tell us how long it took to charge some numbers of range miles?

    <i>* kWh per Charge: 50 [45. SEE SUPERCHARGER DASHBOARD PHOTOS]

    Where will I find a "SUPERCHARGER DASHBOARD"?

    <i>* Electricity Cost / kWh: $0.10 [OK, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE BATTERIES AND SOLAR INSTALLED AND BEING INSTALLED]

    At home I'm paying $0.12 per kWh. Solar isn't "free". What do you think it costs per kWh?

    <i>* Users on Peak Day: 18.0% [MORE LIKE 5-10%]

    Please explain.

    <i>* Capital Cost/Stall: $30,000 [ELON WAS QUOTED AT $150,000 BUT . . .OK]

    I'm assuming that Elon didn't include all of the costs of planning, negotiating with landlords, zoning, shipping and installing SC hardware and the associated management overhead involved.

    <i>* Average utilization of SC capacity in busy hour on busy day: 66.7% [10% SYSTEM WIDE UTILIZATION MAX]

    I suspect that you don't understand this assumption. It's a basic driver in calculating how many SCs are neeeded to support any given number of cars. It means that SC capacity can be planned to have 66.7% of the stalls in use during peak periods without unduly/adversely affecting the performance goals. Queuing calculations tell us to expect about 78% chance of an arriving car finding an open stall to use without waiting to charge. And overall average waiting for an unused stall would be about 3.3 minutes. Do you consider such peak-hour, busy-day SC service OK? (I do.)

    If I had used your 10% number, it would dramatically increase the numbers of SCs "needed" and the costs of the system. Please confirm if you'd like to see an update of my results with that change.

    Thanks for your response.
  • edited November -1
    Samo,

    You are forgetting that elsewhere in North America, with the exception of Connecticut which has SC's every ten miles at one point, ridiculous, most SC stations are at least a couple of hundred miles apart and getting ICED there would be a problem. You have no idea what getting ICED really means!
  • edited November -1
    Samo,

    You are forgetting that elsewhere in North America, with the exception of Connecticut which has SC's every ten miles at one point, ridiculous, most SC stations are at least a couple of hundred miles apart and getting ICED there would be a problem. You have no idea what getting ICED really means!
  • edited November -1
    Teo,

    Did you get reinstated at TMC?
    What are you going to do about it?
    Have you re applied? I know that once the fanboys ban you, you are done for life!
    Good luck!
  • edited November -1
    sorka;
    re extension cords: See above. You couldn't lift or bend it, especially in the cold.
  • edited November -1
    It's clear that some area's say they don't have situations and some do!

    SO WHY WAIT!

    Actions are needed to refrain the charging stations NOW.....
    This is a situation that will only get worst with time.

    Notes, blocking are not the answer!!!!!!!

    A secure method of entering the SC is needed and let's not wait till some situation happens and an owner of a Tesla get injuried by some ICE'd fool parked in the stall and just waiting to get in an altercation.

    Mr. Musk please address these issues NOW!

    Thank you
  • edited November -1
    i can't wait to pull up to a SC station to find all slots blocked by ice vehicles.
    I will happily try to prevent as many ICE vehicles from leaving as possible even if i can't charge myself! NOT!
  • edited November -1
    @ jp158 | March 14, 2015

    <i>SO WHY WAIT!
    Actions are needed ...
    Mr. Musk please address these issues NOW!

    This is a serious issue.
    Tesla has failed to recognize and address it.
    If not addressed, it will be a serious problem.

    @ mysimplename | March 14, 2015

    <i>I will happily try to prevent as many ICE vehicles from leaving as possible

    See above.

    IMO, pretending that ICEing isn't a serious issue threatens the viability of the SC system. Is anyone listening? Does anyone care?
  • edited November -1
    @Grinnin,

    Nobody is listening because it isn't a serious issue.

    Hand waving and crying don't make it any more real.

    And neither does posting over and over about how it's GOING TO BE A PROBLEM some day.

    It makes you seem like this:

    <img src="http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/53694323.jpg&quot; width="600">
  • edited November -1
    Grinnin

    GET REAL! cause it's real...
  • edited November -1
    @ SamO | March 14, 2015

    <i>@Grinnin,
    <i>Nobody is listening because it isn't a serious issue.

    Can you refute a single claim that I ever made on this issue?
    If so, PLEASE do.

    Until then, you can expect me to continue to suggest that when there are many hundreds of thousands of Tesla cars on the road in the U.S., any significant incidence of ICEing would be very costly to Tesla.

    PLEASE point out to us where I said ICEing had caused a significant problem for SC users. Others claimed that.

    BTW, <b>you</b> are listening.

    Finally, statements that "everybody" or "nobody" ... are virtually always FALSE.
  • edited November -1
    @Grinnin',

    The only thing I refute is that you need to worry about what WILL happen in 2-4 years when "hundreds of thousands of Tesla cars are on the road."

    Tesla has show that they have a process to scale.
  • edited November -1
    But, but, but... it MIGHT be awful!
  • edited November -1
    The charger should detect the non-Tesla vehicle and turn on a loud lecture about the unfairness of occupying a stall intended for charging Teslas, then urge the occupant to leave the stall promptly, then repeat the lecture and the appeal over an over until the non-Tesla complies.
  • edited November -1
    I have an idea...

    A siren & flashing lights would go off within 90 seconds of pulling into a spot if someone doesn't plug in and/or if a Tesla key fob is not detected. Violators would be deterred, I would think.
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