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"I always deliver what I say, just maybe not in the time frame that I say it" - Elon Musk
For those of you who have not read the Ashlee Vance biography of Elon, it is definitely worth it. They spend a lot of time covering the companies he has run and Elon himself. Very worthwhile. (I cheated and did the audiobook).
In that book, however, it is clear that Elon always over promises on dates.
When he estimates something will take a day, they know it will take a week or more. When he says its a week, well, then that means 6 months.
Elon himself acknowledges this in the book and makes the quote in the subject line, though admittedly I may have paraphrased.
The bottom line is that Elon's time frame for things is never accurate, sometimes off by years! But, at the end of the day, its him trying to drive the business and the world forward. Its his way of managing (some of his management style is absolutely horrible IMHO, but it works for him).
But, the one thing he has proven (besides his poor judge of how long it takes to do anything) is that he always delivers. Will autopilot be out this year? Probably not. Its a very very difficult thing to do and lives re on the line. But, I am willing to bet he does deliver it.
How about the Model 3? Well, i bet we won't see that until late 2018. But, he will deliver it and it will change the game (if the company survives that long). ;-)
So, as I read all these posts about missed deadlines, I just smile to myself. Tesla will get there. I have just learned to add lots of time to whatever he says.
In that book, however, it is clear that Elon always over promises on dates.
When he estimates something will take a day, they know it will take a week or more. When he says its a week, well, then that means 6 months.
Elon himself acknowledges this in the book and makes the quote in the subject line, though admittedly I may have paraphrased.
The bottom line is that Elon's time frame for things is never accurate, sometimes off by years! But, at the end of the day, its him trying to drive the business and the world forward. Its his way of managing (some of his management style is absolutely horrible IMHO, but it works for him).
But, the one thing he has proven (besides his poor judge of how long it takes to do anything) is that he always delivers. Will autopilot be out this year? Probably not. Its a very very difficult thing to do and lives re on the line. But, I am willing to bet he does deliver it.
How about the Model 3? Well, i bet we won't see that until late 2018. But, he will deliver it and it will change the game (if the company survives that long). ;-)
So, as I read all these posts about missed deadlines, I just smile to myself. Tesla will get there. I have just learned to add lots of time to whatever he says.
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Comments
1. His vision is impatient (If I can imagine it, we can do it... now.).
2. If he can imagine it, it should be doable... ASAP. Except a Vision rarely takes into consideration ALL the details required in the Real World AND if the implementors are not themselves brilliant visionaries, their job is much more difficult because they are dealing with imperfect interpretations of the Vision, which require time consuming iterations of change and modification.
If it's the comment I'm thinking of - "We call Apple the Tesla graveyard" - it may not reflect upon the competence of Apple's staff, so much as that Tim Cook is much easier to work for and stay working for than the notoriously driven and demanding Mr. Musk.
I once had a boss who was known for promising short time frames. When they didn't happen, he'd call an employee into his office, give his famous "I could do the whole thing in a few hours in a rrrrrooom by myself!" speech, and then possibly fire the person. But he did have people like me who would work days, nights and weekends to get things done on an impossible schedule. Somehow we managed to get things done in a much shorter time frame than anybody anticipated, and that's pretty good for the computer industry.
Overpromising could be anything from shooting his mouth off to poor planning to having an inept staff, all of which would be his responsibility, so the blame still lies with one person. The bigger questions are what causes his estimates to be off by so much and why does he do it?
If GM promised the Bolt for 2019 and came in a year early, it would look damn good. Plenty of auto makers come up with realistic estimates, but don't always deliver a product that lives up to the hype. If Musk had announced autopilot for the 2017 models, and promised to make it retroactive to the 2014 models with appropriate hardware at no extra cost for those who had bought the tech package, then it would have been big news when TACC got added within months. If the rest comes out this month, that would have made even bigger news since it would have been the 2014 and 2015 models. If the original target had been 2016, considering that 2015 models were coming out for competitors at the time of the announcement, it wouldn't have come across as "out in the far future." But it would have been a matter of beating expectations.
What would have been the down side? The press conference would have announce "the D" as ready for market, and announced what would be coming for the following "model year." Musk said he doesn't care about short term stock price fluctuations, and customers would have bought the cars with a realistic expectation of what they would have been getting and when they would have been getting it, so why not try to be realistic?
Yup, although he followed that comment up I think with something about it being easier to make watches than cars.
http://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-says-apple-hires-engineers-that-tesla-fires/
i would tend to agree with him, personally. I bet being a Tesla engineer is probably harder, not just because of Musk's personality.
Mind you, I'm not a billionaire, so clearly I ain't got it all right myself and maybe it should be me who changes!
So you have to wait a little for your autopilot, not a real biggy in the overall scheme of things. I've had to wait longer than most, since I got one of the very first PDs; I sooth the pain of not having autopilot with my right foot.
I mean really, smart watches are kind of a derivative, unnecessary product category at this point, while musk has literally created a supercar family sedan that can theoretically run off the sun (with the assistance of tech from elsewhere in musk's companies).
If they ever roll-out the AutoPilot; they should roll it out in the order of purchase. So all of you holier-than-thou people that bought in June shouldn't get AP for six months after the December delivered cars.
Even billionaires need coaching. It's a shame that ours seems to have ignored this prescient point. And if the CEO has difficulty communicating in an optimal manner, it should be no surprise that one of the company's weakest links is... wait for it... that communication thing.
Vision is spiffy. Being willing to revisit actual issue viable plans that exist in the real world that account for real thought-through challenges is a much better ability. Since without that, a vision is a wish masquerading as a pipe dream.
Fortunately, even billionaires can learn to change. They just have to care enough to do it. Sugarcoat it aaaaany way you want.
I don't think anyone here on this forum can claim to have delivered more visionary and tangible things than Elon Musk. The car you are driving isn't a wish or a pipe dream, it is real and tangible.
Friggin 2.9s 0-60 in a large sedan? Safest cars in the world. Rocket that lands on a barge and cuts launch costs by 95%, Worlds largest battery production facility? Stationary storage at a cost per KwH at 30% below market, PayPal...Mee thinks he is over-delivering....I hope Elon Musk doesn't change, and doesn't care enough to learn to do so. He gets a pass.
@TaoJones, have you invented/built/marketed or made anything I may have heard about or used? It is too easy to say nothing, do nothing, create nothing, promise nothing and deliver nothing, and criticize those who do great things for not being perfect.