When ordering a Model S or X, Tesla appears to be promising that purchasing Full Self Driving will enable "full self-driving in almost all circumstances", with the caveat that the functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval.
Until Tesla has completed the validation, it's possible Tesla will determine that the AP 2.0 hardware/software may never deliver FSD or that it may never receive regulatory approval.
And yet, Tesla is asking owners to pay $3,000 up front (or $4,000 later) for functionality that may never be delivered.
We're planning to order a 100D with AP 2.0, and will likely check the box for FSD. However, I wish Tesla was being more realistic about the FSD option.
A few recommended changes for this option:
For $3,000, Tesla commits to provide FSD. If additional hardware is required to complete validation or get regulatory approval (such as the addition of LIDAR or the ability to communicate with other FSD vehicles), Tesla will add that hardware for no additional charge.
If FSD is not activated at purchase, it MAY be available in the future for an upgrade fee. If no additional hardware is required to achieve FSD, the upgrade will be $4,000. If Tesla has to install additional hardware to achieve FSD, then the upgrade is $4,000 plus the cost of the hardware upgrade(s).
Before FSD is enabled, Tesla will extend the Enhanced Autopilot functionality to provide driver monitored autopilot on urban streets, in addition to EAP's support for highway driving.
At this point, Tesla believes they have sufficient hardware to get FSD working - though until they've actually done the testing, they can't be sure they won't need additional hardware to make it completely work. Plus, they don't know what additional hardware may be needed to achieve regulatory approval (and addressing liability).
The above strategy would be more realistic, based on where we are with FSD technology and regulation today. It would provide owners purchasing FSD today assurance Tesla will guarantee they will (eventually) get FSD, even if more hardware is needed. And for those who want to wait, they'll face the potential of additional hardware costs if they delay their FSD commitment.
Since Tesla appears confident they've got what's needed for FSD with AP 2.0, then providing a more detailed commitment on FSD shouldn't be a change in direction - just a clarification of what they are committing to people willing to spend $3,000 today on future functionality.