General

2017: The year of the self-driving car

edited November -1 in General
http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/advanced-cars/2017-the-year-of-selfdriving-cars-and-trucks

"...in the United States at any rate, the most common job in more than 50 percent of U.S. states is that of driver. Some 3.5 million people drive for a living."

Comments

  • edited November -1
    Automation has made many jobs obsolete over the years, or significantly reduced the number of people doing them.
  • edited November -1
    Makes the coal jobs losses pale by comparison. Driving is the most basic job many people can do.

    Without something like basic income, the dislocation and tragedy for common people is going to be staggering.
  • edited November -1
    Good, it can't happen soon enough. The productivity gains will be even more staggering.
  • edited January 2017
    Italian researcher claimed 2.5 - 3.5 % of jobs in all industrialized economies were drivers.
  • edited November -1
    Whoever runs in 2020 with a "Bring back driving jobs" plank should win in a landslide.
  • edited January 2017
    @ColdOne (January 3, 2017)

    << Good, it can't happen soon enough. The productivity gains will be even more staggering. >>

    The stupidity of meekishly following the most recent trend shines through.

    There is no AI even conceivably good enough to substitute for a human driver in unprogrammed circumstances.

    All this Level 4 or 5 AP foolishness can only match a well prepared, geographically circumscribed area and cost a fortune. There are no algorithms for open fields devastated by storms, with no reliable markings, or no markings at all.

    If you want up-to-date, effective AP, stick with Adaptive Cruise Control and preserve your driver privileges and skills.
  • edited January 2017
    @Remnant,

    "All this Level 4 or 5 AP foolishness can only match a well prepared, geographically circumscribed area and cost a fortune. There are no algorithms for open fields devastated by storms, with no reliable markings, or no markings at all."

    You might want to check out the history of the DARPA Grand Challenge, in which autonomous vehicles successfully navigated hundreds of miles through the Mojave desert more than a decade ago. No lane markings there!
  • edited January 2017
    A lot more than just drivers will lose their jobs....Hospital sector will take a hit from less trauma cases from reduced car accidents.....Lawyers will have less personal injury claims from less car accidents and the medical malpractice....Court system from reduced case load.......auto body repair shops.....reduced car parts will need to be replaces and shipped around the world....car insurance repair estimators.....less people dying from car accidents means the undertaker will take a hit....etc..etc
  • edited January 2017
    Yup, Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Driving, etc is going to be a major "disruptor" of life in the near future.
    Thank goodness for me I am 66 and may still have a few good years of driving enjoyment and freedom to look forward to. I feel sorry for future generations that are going to miss out on that entirely personal freedom and enjoyment that comes from having the ability to jump in the old car and just drive for the shear pleasure of it. But it won't be long before my car and I will be a "relic" of the past.
  • edited November -1
    @Dramsey (January 9, 2017)

    << You might want to check out the history of the DARPA Grand Challenge, in which autonomous vehicles successfully navigated hundreds of miles through the Mojave desert more than a decade ago. No lane markings there! >>

    Not much traffic in those conditions either.

    The complexity of programming for AP-L5 is reflected in the open-ended SW delivery from Tesla and others.

    I suspect a lot of us will be able to continue to enjoy L2 driving, or mere non-AP driving, for a long time to come.
  • edited November -1
    I wonder whether we'll see a map overlay soon of "chartered" streets. Level 4 autonomy is about being able to drive unassisted in a prescribed area, but I believe that doesn't have to be every street in a given area.

    Naturally you want to go from the most major roads downwards. And some roads are much easier than others so they can be authorised more quickly. So put a lot of human effort into preparing intricate plans and maps for the harder major roads, and add in the easier roads... that would cover a lot of ground, and you could build further from there.

    That's all about creating a great "expected"/"chartered" area... but doesn't handle the unexpected.

    Is it a waste to build the chartered area up, if your car must be capable of handling the unexpected anyway?

    I guess cars could drive more slowly than humans (for now) on unchartered roads, which combined with great driving in expected areas would work. And cars could mark roads that have an unexpected change so cars can either bypass them, slow down for them, or receive updated instructions.
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