Model 3

Loaded model 3 vs similarly priced used S

I've read lots of people estimating what a loaded model 3 might go for and then have someone immediately say "for that price why wouldn't you just purchase a used S".

I think a loaded 3 might be better and here's why (just speculating but let me know what you think)

Model 3 vs used p90dl

Model 3 loaded:
Newer tech
600-800lbs lighter(just a guess based on size, materials, and improved cells reducing weight)
More nimble/better handling - could be moot based on suspension setup but most likely with lighter weight
Better cd - around 15% more aerodynamic
New cells - more efficient
And very, very likely more range - base will probably compete with bolt and highest battery option should deliver 30-40% higher kWh than base 3 (assuming 55 base and top pack around 70-80kwh)
Perhaps very close to as quick 0-60 - theoretically it could surpass a p90dl with cd, lower weight, and new battery efficiencies
Of course full warranty remaining is huge as well

Used Model s has a couple things going for it:
7 seat configuration if you have a larger family
More useful trunk
Supercharging for life (which could be really enticing for some)
Prestige

I did make the assumption that Elon won't restrict the 3's performance just to make S customers happy or keep selling the S. personally I think tesla will put most of their model s focus into upgrading its interior quality.

This is also assuming the P90dl would be in the same ball park $ wise as a fully loaded 3 which here in Canada it's approx 95k USD for the cheapest p90dl used.

This is also assuming that used MS won't crash in price once the 3's final specs are released...a lot of ifs but let me know how crazy I am

Comments

  • edited January 2017
    The only thing wrong with a used Model S is that it's not a new Model S. Seriously, if you get a CPO Model S, there's a good chance whoever drove it before got a new Model S with the latest features. By the time the Model 3 comes out, a used Model S will be worth less because it's older and cars lose value as they age, and it won't have HW2 features. But HW1 autopilot is still very good.

    A Model 3 might have better features than a used Model S but not better than a new Model S. So it will be a question of whether you want to get a car without the latest features but that was built with no compromises, or one that was designed to be less expensive, leaves off some frills, but might be the best new car in its price range.

    It's no different from the general "used or new" question with any car. A used Model S will be much better than a used Model 3 of the same vintage. It's just that the Model S has been around longer.
  • edited January 2017
    Very valid point and thanks for the response.

    I do believe it's different with a tesla EV than a regular ICE car because range means so much. If the new cells don't make it in to the MS in time of the launch of the 3 there could be a large amount of overlap where a loaded 3 will have more range and could have nearly the performance. I would call better range a feature, in fact it's probably one of the most important features to the uneducated public.

    But then again Elon doesn't always play by the "rules" we are accustomed to
  • edited November -1
    I keep thinking the same thing. The fact that I can get a used model S now is very tempting. Only issue is the price on the AP 1 cars is a bit out of my price range. I see one every once in a while that I could likely stretch to afford but then I wouldn't be able to afford the 3 when it came out and would only have AP1 hardware. So for now I am still waiting for the 3 to come out. I would prefer the larger size of the S but want the AP2 feature more.

    I tend not to like buying used cars. I prefer to buy new and keep for 10 plus years. Most used cars I have had to deal with have been abused and had lots of maintenance issues. Since Tesla has less maintenance requirements than ICE that shouldn't be a huge problem.

    Then again I know if I break down and get an S now I will be wondering why I didn't buy one earlier. Waiting means I have another year of driving an ICE.
  • edited November -1
    @kaffine
    Until late August,I had not bought a new car since 1988. I placed my 3 order on 12/26. Did I catch a fever late in life? No. I believe in Tesla and the value that it is. And a million other reasons. Well,not quite a million but you get my drift.
  • edited November -1
    Im interested to see what kWh base battery size they are going to use. MS gets 60kWh. ~20% smaller vehicle would get ~20% smaller pack? No idea. But seemingly it appears anywhere from 40-60kWh will be where it is, which is a significant discrepancy, and could be the difference of needing a battery size upgrade or not.
  • edited November -1
    Generally i buy used cars because the value of the new car cannot possibly compensate for the price difference of the used version. New can average around 2x the price of used. And say yes the used car has lots of maintenance, but did the maintenance equal the price difference between the used and new? Because your new car is going to also have maintenance. So putting theoretical numbers for reference:

    If your used car is $10k, and the new one is $20k. The used has $5k of maintenance over 10 years, and the new has $2500. After 10 years you've spent Used: $15k, New: $22.5k.

    I'd say, that if the reasoning for buying used or new is solely the price you're paying, used is always cheaper.
    I dont think that you'll ever spend more on maintaining your used car to surpass what you would pay for the new one.
  • edited January 2017
    I thought seriously about a used model S or basic new 60S and consider them great options. I didn't do it primarily because it is just too much car for me. My wife and I are of small to medium stature used to compact cars. When I test drove the model S it was awesome but I felt a little lost in it. Also we both always park in a traditional size 2 stall garage and it would be a little tighter than I'd like with the S.
  • edited January 2017
    " But seemingly it appears anywhere from 40-60kWh will be where it is, which is a significant discrepancy, and could be the difference of needing a battery size upgrade or not."

    Why do you care how big the battery is? The Model 3 will have at least 215 miles of range. If that (or whatever it really turns out to be) isn't enough for you, get a bigger pack. Plus, that 40-60 difference is between what some people guess and what other people guess, both of whom have no actual evidence. Would it make things worse for you, if I guessed that they would get 230 miles of range out of 20kWh, and that difference doubled?

    Thank you kindly.
  • edited January 2017
    The least expensive AWD Model S on EV-CPO is $72,500. I expect my Model 3 with AWD to be less than $50k before any tax credits. If I could get a used AWD Model S for within $10K of a Model 3 AFTER tax credits I would buy the S instead. But Model S prices just aren't falling that fast so I'm waiting for the 3.
  • edited January 2017
    I assumed this was a Model S 60 kWh comparison to a loaded model 3. A 90D used is still going to be a fairly big price over a model 3 fully loaded. In the worst case scenario, I could see a fully loaded Model 3 getting to 65-70k. I hope it's not that high, but it may be possible. You're talking 95k there. That's a huge jump still so I'm not sure how apt a comparison it is.
  • edited January 2017
    @topher

    Im not guessing how much range it will offer. Im just saying that its significant, in the sense that a 40kWh or 60kWh could be the difference of needing a battery upgrade or not. Hint COULD. I dont know, and i am not suggesting any range numbers.
  • edited January 2017
    @andy:

    Yeah still not understanding what you are talking about. We know the base model 3 will get about 215 miles range. Assuming that is how it is released; if you find out that it has a 40 kWh battery will you buy an upgrade? What if you find out that it has a 60 kWh battery? Same range, different battery size. The range is the only thing we (kind of) know. If I needed 250 miles of range I would upgrade; if not, not. I couldn't care less what the pack size is.

    [Or maybe I just banging my head against a brick wall here by using the subjunctive.]


    Thank you kindly.
  • edited November -1
    @topher

    I guess my point is that we not only do not know what size battery Tesla is going to put in the base, but we also do not have true range numbers yet. All the specs listed in the 2016 unveil are subject to change.

    So i guess the basis of my point is that Tesla may or may not decide to "upgrade" their base model standards, and possibly go with a slightly larger battery than what was used in the unveil range estimates. Point being, range could be significantly larger than the 215 miles. If it nears 250, then i'd say for most people a battery upgrade would be unnecessary.

    While i do understand what you're saying that the battery size would not matter if the range is the same. So if the range does stick to around 215, i can say from a personal standpoint, that a battery upgrade would be nearing the top of my priority list. Im basically just saying that Tesla is known for its generocity and does well with providing higher than expected quality (please forgive Model X). So just putting it out there that the numbers given from last years unveil may or may not be subject to significant discrepancy. And i was saying that depending on what Tesla decides to do, could be the difference of the base model being all that you need, vs needing multiple upgrades. Cant wait to see what they give us.
  • edited January 2017
    We do know that Tesla committed to a minimum range for the base battery and the car will get "at least' that range. It wouldn't make much sense for the car to have substantially more than that range since it would cost more to manufacture, and people who need more range can upgrade. It has little to do with the technology vs what's in the Model S. The base price of the Model 3 already has the battery technology factored into it. It will come down to how much Tesla charges for battery upgrades and what range you get more than whether it uses one size cell or another.
  • edited January 2017
    @Haggy

    True. I also like to think of how easily the Bolt exceeded the M3 predictions. If it was that easy for the Bolt to exceed that and maintain relatively the same price, i cant imagine that M3 wouldnt get somewhere close to that for their base model.
  • edited November -1
    I would imagine that Tesla was being conservative with respect to the design as it stood at the time, and didn't want to be caught with a projected range that falls shorter upon completion when testing the final product. If that did somehow turn out to be the case when they finalized the design, they would have reworked the battery to have more capacity. But if it turned out to be more range, I doubt they would have cut back. Having a longer range than the Bolt might be an interesting marketing decision though, just because they can.
  • edited January 2017
    Haggy: +21! Exactly. Early range hopes for Model S were something like 320 miles, 230 miles, and 180 miles. Actual EPA ratings were instead 265 miles, 208 miles, and 139 miles. About 82%, 90%, and 77%, respectively. It would truly suck if they were to announce a 250 mile minimum and then only achieve a 192 mile EPA rated range.
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