Model 3

still about 600,000 orders

$663 million in deposits, puts the 3 at about 600 million of that.

Wait til the next phase, wow.
«13456

Comments

  • edited February 2017
    If that is true.... I placed my reserve very late. I wouldn't be able to get my until maybe early to mid 2019. Shoot.
  • edited February 2017
    Hold out hope Quinten. Not sure where you live, but not sure if there is a figure out there of how many reservations are international and would (hopefully) be at the back of the line. Second, Maybe they can ramp up fast enough in second half of 2018 to clear the backlog. Crossing fingers, as I am pretty late reserver myself!
  • edited February 2017
    @ HockeyEV. I live here in California but place my reserve last month. Hopefully you are right and it still wouldn't be that far away.
  • edited February 2017
    Plus they are fulfilling orders from west coast first to east coast. I am in CO, hoping early 2018. Reserved last week.
  • edited November -1
    Sorry guys. I don't think it will be that soon. Just because you are geographically closer does not put you THAT far to the front of the line, given how late you ordered. JMHO. I don't even think people who ordered last summer who aren't current owners will see early 2018. I'm an owner who ordered on day 1 and will be happy to have my car then. (east coast.)
  • How can I decode the reservation number?
  • edited February 2017
  • edited February 2017
    There is no rhyme or reason to the reservation number. The whole who is getting their car delivered first, is so convoluted, that no one will be able to figure it out. An early reservation number just means you get to configure your car earlier than the next person "in line". That doesn't mean you will get your car before that guy/gal. They said they will fill the fully optioned out orders first. Also, yes they said they will start on the West coast and work their way East. The problem there is at what point do they stop filling orders for the West coast? If they stuck strictly with filling fully optioned orders, they would never deliver cars any further east than the Nevada/CA border.

    No one outside of Tesla knows that, so no one here is going to be able to even remotely guess when they will get their car.
  • edited November -1
    Quinten -
    I stood in line on March 31 to get my reservation in. Before I got to the store, I figured I'd get an early car probably in 2018; when I got to the store and saw 250 people in line already, I figured 2019 based on the production schedule that had been tweeted. That was OK by me then - although now I'm itching and anxious because I won't get one until likely the end of 2017.
    mashable .com/2015/09/02/tesla-model-3-preorders-march-2016
  • edited February 2017
    Model X reservation price is 5x that of the Model 3. Deposit $ is not just Model 3 deposits.
  • edited November -1
    Tesla say Model X bought now will get May delivery, call it 2.5 months, at a production rate of 7,000 per week times 5,000 deposit is $35 Million. Still room for 600k Model 3 reservations.

    Thank you kindly.
  • edited November -1
    Model S and X - $5k deposit...
    Delivery delay on S and X is about 2 months...
    Production last year was 90,000, call for 2017 is 50-60k for H1
    Lets say current production is 5,000 so 2 months is 10k at $5,000 per is $50M.

    So out of $663M deposits we can estimate that $50M is S/X and so there are about 613M deposits for Model 3 or about 613k reservation holders. Even if my estimates are off by a factor of 2 and there is $100M in S/X deposits that still leaves about 560K Model 3 reservations.

    Real number is probably my est +/- 50% so call is $25-75M for S/X and 588-638k reservations.

    That is a nice number for Tesla to be sitting on, and agrees with the opening post. I am OK with rounding 588 up to 600k for a base line estimate.

    Glad I ordered day one, just too bad I didn't take the day to stand in line.
  • edited November -1
    Reservation numbers aren't serial. Even if they were, it would be like getting number 116 in a bakery while somebody else had 117 in a different bakery. It wouldn't mean you get served first. It would depend who else is in line at your bakery. There would be nothing useful in knowing your place in line because there isn't a place in line. The lines still need to be formed from the reservation list and Tesla isn't ready to do that yet.

    Tesla doesn't publish a breakdown of customer deposits so there's no way of knowing what percentage is for Model 3.

    There's quite a bit of room between low and high estimates, so knowing whether you are number 500,000 or 600,000 wouldn't mean much. 600,000 in one scenario might come sooner than 500,000 in a different one, so knowing that would have no bearing on when you can expect your car.

    Tesla is saying "Production begins mid 2017. Delivery estimate for new reservations is mid 2018 or later." For new reservations, I'd speculate that it would be later, but if they miss 2018 it won't be by much. If you'd be willing to accept December 2018, then January 2019 isn't so bad. But Tesla isn't saying that. That would be when to expect it if they miss their goals.

    Also keep in mind that it depends on where you live. Tesla might not start delivery to some countries right away. With the Model X, people thought the wait would still be going on now for people who ordered when it came to market. But that's not the case. Tesla started accepting domestic orders in the US within months of starting production, even though in other countries all you could do was get a reservation.
  • edited November -1
    I think more employees will get in line.
  • edited February 2017
    HI.
  • edited February 2017
    I doubt employees reserving now will get priority over other people who've already reserved. I think the employee priority was handled by allowing employees to reserve before March 31. If you get hired today and reserve a Model 3, I'd guess that you get the same priority as anyone else reserving.
  • edited November -1
    I think if you're a new employee at the factory they may allow you to get it first just because they have another close beta tester. That doesn't bother me in the least.

    Now if you're an employee in Chicago, that's a different story. You'll be waiting.
  • edited February 2017
    I think fully paid cars, not yet delivered might also be included in the deposits.
    This would reduce the amount of deposits for model 3 significantly.
  • edited February 2017
    "I think fully paid cars, not yet delivered might also be included in the deposits."

    I don't think Tesla gets any money until the title is actually transferred. If they did that would mean that there are people out there that would be paying on a loan where they don't even have the vehicle yet.
  • edited February 2017
    RN is just a UID (unique id). Only Tesla knows what the true order/priority is for Model 3 reservations.
  • edited November -1
    When Tesla opened up reservations, most Tesla employees I spoke to fell into one of two categories. There were those who made reservations, and those who wanted to make reservations but either couldn't afford it or couldn't justify getting a new car. I would imagine that there must be some who simply wouldn't want a Tesla but the buzz around the company was amazing. Even if half the employees in the company ordered one, Tesla would get through the orders by early to mid September, which is the point where they hope to be at volume production.

    If Tesla decided to hold off on cars for employees who couldn't afford a reservation or didn't work there back then, especially if one of the hiring benefits was getting priority, it might save a few weeks at most for everybody else. I don't think it would have a big impact.

    "I don't think Tesla gets any money until the title is actually transferred. If they did that would mean that there are people out there that would be paying on a loan where they don't even have the vehicle yet."

    Tesla gets money when you pick up your vehicle. Whether or not you make payments has nothing to do with it. My pickup for my Model S got delayed. I got the loan once I had the VIN. I had a check sitting there waiting to give to Tesla when I picked up my car. But in the mean time, I had to make payments.
  • edited February 2017
    Not full orders from west to east.... jeez. That'll never ever happen! At most 15k at a time to each region.
  • edited February 2017
    @haggy-they used to be. But since some loudmouth screamed I know my number by the page source of my order page-tesla encrypted it. How dumb was that poster.
  • edited November -1
    That's not quite true either because those numbers said nothing about where you were in the relevant queue for your region, or with respect to whether you're an owner or anything else. I'm in California. Orders were open for many time zones before mine. If I found out that I was number 40,000, how would that help? What if that's accurate but it's also the case that I'm number 5000 for my region and number 35 for owners in my region? What if number 1244 is in Australia and won't get the car until Tesla switches to RHD production after deploying in all US regions and then some other LHD countries? The sequence number still says nothing.

    What if I'm number 50 in my region on the owner's list, and Tesla decides that since they are ordering enough parts for 4000 vehicles in July, they will open up orders to the first 4000 people on the list? If I don't configure my car within seconds of getting a notice, and I don't confirm my order right away, does that mean if I wait until a test drive and wait a week to confirm my order that I might end up 3000th on the list, while number 4000 could end up being number 56 if he configures right away? What if there's a hold up on a certain part and Tesla decides that they will make nothing but RWD cars for a week until they get it straightened out? When a person confirms an order, the system should give an approximate time frame for completion, and it can't depend on who orders over the next month.

    I will get to order when I get to order, and I will get an estimate when I order, and I will get the car when it's ready. Since I waited in line in Fremont and am a current owner, I would think it wouldn't matter what my number is because if it's number one or number 3500, it wouldn't mean I'd get the car sooner one way or another.
  • edited February 2017
    Haggy: +42! The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about "What If Tesla Builds a Great Car and Sells It to You?"
Sign In or Register to comment.