Elon will change his mind - but yeah - he has previously stated 100 kwh is the size for now - also we need to consider with the 3 coming online they really won't want to be diverting more kWh of LiOn capacity into the "low volume" S/X production…
I'm also guessing going above 100 kwh might involve some geometry changes to the actual pack - if they can't upgrade the density.
I wouldn't be surprised if Elon gets restless and upgrades, but he has stated we're at a stable point for the time being.
I think Musk is correct when said 100kwh for now no plans for larger battery pack. I think come July they will finally start to use the 2170 battery cells in the Model S/X and raise the maximum range between 20 to 30 percent. If its 30% that would mean the Model S range will increase to 435 miles. Musk has said many times the Model S will always get the best tech first, so how could he launch a cheaper vehicle that has more efficient battery cells than the Model S?
@ccrulesn - Your probably right about the new 2170 cells increasing the range, but don't you think they are a little busy with the model 3 to release a new battery pack for the S/X?
My bet for the earliest date would be in September along with the Semi announcement and SuperCharger V3. That gives them 3 months to get the Model 3 production lines up and running before changing the configuration of the S/X production lines.
For sure they shall try to make battery out of 2170 cells compatible with present cars. Battery for M3 using 2170 cells is already on road. My guess would be that it's not about beeing able to produce the battery for S with 2170 cells, but setting the standards and faster charging for it.
Technically speaking, 100 kWh is 100 kWh. The type of battery cannot influence the range if the storing capacity is identical. For more range, you either have to increase battery capacity (so more than 100 kWh) or increase the efficiency of the rest of the car. A 48 Volt on-board power system could be an option (much more efficient than the 12V of today), but would be hugely expensive because all other on-board systems would have to be adapted.
Faster charging might be possible with the new 2170 cells. On the other hand, the current batteries prove to be very reliable and barely suffer from any range loss over time. For the new cells, it's still wait and see...
their past increase intervals suggests 130 will not happen on the next upgrade. If I were a guessing man, 110 would be next. it took them 4 years to get from 85 to 100
There is also the minor issue of Tesla's contractual obligation to purchase the 18670 batteries from Panasonic. We know those batteries aren't going into the Model 3, Powerwall or Powerpacks, so they have to go into Model S and X cars. I expect that Tesla will ultimately convert everything over to 2170, Gigafactory-produced batteries but that won't happen until they are approaching the end of the 18670 battery buy...call it 2019 or 2020.
I remain confused by all the people who insist that the X and S have to get 2170 batteries now because the model 3 is getting them....or the statements that the 2170 batteries are that much batter than 18670 batteries. The form factor is different, there is speculation that the chemistry is different and somewhat improved but all we know for sure, is that production of those batteries is cheaper than the 18670s. The people claiming the S and X have to get them now remind me of all the people who maintained that the Model 3 HAD to have a HUD...and that the S and X would be getting them this Spring to ensure they got a HUD before the Model 3 came out...
I just got a heads up from a friend that is close to a Tesla exec .......
Sounds similar to, " I have a friend of a friend who I thought I heard someone say they might have heard him say that maybe, perhaps.............
Elon said the 100 Battery pack is the max for awhile. I'll go w Elon.
@drklain The current battery in the cars now is the 18650. And I agree with you on the newer 2170 battery. It might be better, but how much better will it be in the long run? And I submit that most people really could not care less about the battery in their car. They care that the car runs and supplies the range and speed that they expect.
A range increase to 350 or higher would result in me quickly upgrading my ModelS P85 to a new Model S with the increased range. I'm sorry 315 or 335 is nice but I'll wait a bit longer. At 35-400 miles most of my long distance drives could be done with 1-2 supercharger stops instead of 3-4.
I think the 2170 makes it into the S/X with an announcement in September during the Truck unveil. We will also get supercharger V3 info at that time. Tesla will not be delivering many, if any 3s to non-employees by Sept.
Faster charging/ increased range available immediately for S/X orders to boost Q4 demand. Then in Q1 they can boost sales by encouraging S/X orders to get the last full $7500 tax credit, by Q2 2018 the 3 ramp will be high enough to create the cash for Tesla to spend on expansion and keep investors happy.
"At 35-400 miles most of my long distance drives could be done with 1-2 supercharger stops instead of 3-4." Yes, but since the battery is higher capacity, wouldn't those 1-2 stops take much longer than before?
1-2 longer stops is better for me. When I travel long distance, I count the charging time jfrom exit ramp back to on ramp, because that's the added time to my drive, and a number of SCs in the east and south US take several minutes (or more, Mobile for example from I10). So my total charging time would be much less if I could cut the stops in half.
Comments
I'm also guessing going above 100 kwh might involve some geometry changes to the actual pack - if they can't upgrade the density.
I wouldn't be surprised if Elon gets restless and upgrades, but he has stated we're at a stable point for the time being.
My bet for the earliest date would be in September along with the Semi announcement and SuperCharger V3. That gives them 3 months to get the Model 3 production lines up and running before changing the configuration of the S/X production lines.
More likely would be sometime next year.
Faster charging might be possible with the new 2170 cells. On the other hand, the current batteries prove to be very reliable and barely suffer from any range loss over time. For the new cells, it's still wait and see...
I remain confused by all the people who insist that the X and S have to get 2170 batteries now because the model 3 is getting them....or the statements that the 2170 batteries are that much batter than 18670 batteries. The form factor is different, there is speculation that the chemistry is different and somewhat improved but all we know for sure, is that production of those batteries is cheaper than the 18670s. The people claiming the S and X have to get them now remind me of all the people who maintained that the Model 3 HAD to have a HUD...and that the S and X would be getting them this Spring to ensure they got a HUD before the Model 3 came out...
Sounds similar to, " I have a friend of a friend who I thought I heard someone say they might have heard him say that maybe, perhaps.............
Elon said the 100 Battery pack is the max for awhile. I'll go w Elon.
Faster charging/ increased range available immediately for S/X orders to boost Q4 demand. Then in Q1 they can boost sales by encouraging S/X orders to get the last full $7500 tax credit, by Q2 2018 the 3 ramp will be high enough to create the cash for Tesla to spend on expansion and keep investors happy.
Every car takes 30-40 minutes for 80% charge.
60, 85, 90 and 100kWh packs.