Its quite simple at this point.
If X comes out this summer per Elon.
It will be the same schedule at the very least compared to the Model S release a few years back.
1-Spring time Signature S folks were contacted to build their cars, but no one else had access to the design studio.
2-Deliveries started in the summer
3-Test drives for reservation holders started in summer
4-Non Signature folks got to access full on design studio in the fall based on reservation number.
With Model X, I gather there will be a larger reveal by Springtime as they now have a fully operational well proven Factory-Assembly line.
Its also likely that the design studio might be available to view by more than just Signature folks this time around.
The only reason they might limit the design studio to Signature folks only... is to see what general order prefs are before they let the flood gates open for full public viewing.
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The Signature cars, as was the case with the S, will have very few options. I expect most Sigs to price at $120K+. Much of the options for regular production vehicles will be standard on Sigs, but it will cost you.
Number of cars produced the first week when productions starts will also be very low and how fast they will ramp up the production depends on several reasons. It will take some months to produce the Signatures just for US.
They are also adding a separate body assembly line (think robots welding the "cage" to the "skateboard") for the X.
A quote on this topic from the Q3 shareholder letter:
"To accommodate accelerating Model S demand and prepare for the rapidly growing order book of Model X reservations, we are investing to increase production to more than 2,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2015. We began this process with a production shutdown this summer to transition to our new, higher volume final assembly line and expand our Model S body center. The ramp to our target production rate took longer than expected due to system integration challenges, reducing our production by almost 2,000 vehicles. Being unable to increase production fast enough, not lack of demand, is a fair criticism of Tesla. That said, we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow. This is unusual in the car industry.
In contrast to Q3, actions to further increase capacity have been designed to be less disruptive, thus enabling us to increase output at a steadier and more predictable pace. For example, our Model X body center will initially be independent from our Model S body center, allowing us to start building Model X bodies without impacting Model S production. We have started to upgrade our second paint shop with state of the art paint application technology and a level of automation that will also have the capacity to cover Model 3 needs.
Future capacity investments extend to the Gigafactory where we have already started to pour concrete for the foundation. A modular build strategy is enabling us to scale construction, capital requirements and capacity commensurate with growing demand. Together with Panasonic we are making good progress toward first cell production in 2016, slightly earlier than originally scheduled. Starting operations earlier will reduce ramp-up risks for Model 3 and provide some potential expansion capacity for Model S and Model X."
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2992738106x0x791902/D7B8CC04-9C3E-4216-9CE3-7FB4D7E0C00B/Q314 SHL Final.pdf
Cheers!
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096685_why-tesla-model-x-electric-suv-is-late-range-towing-falcon-doors
Ron
SigX #1015
I think they will be deliver the X in the third quarter come hell, high water, or towing.
"...and now, a 2016 model-year car with an estimated launch date for Q3 this year."
Inaccurate. Tesla Motors does not date their cars as traditional automobile manufacturers do. Any cars built during 2015 are considered 2015 models.
"...the three reasons for the Tesla Model S delay nailed down: those famous falcon wing doors; range concerns; and towing capabilities."
Truly, range and towing should be considered the same concern. Tesla Motors stated the importance of class leading towing capabilities for Model X ages ago. But being able to move perhaps 6,000 to 7,500 lbs is of no use if you cannot span the 150 to 200 miles between Superchargers while doing so.
As for the rest, I agree with georgehawley.
Tony
Sig X #911
I think the special, as yet unknown features have to do with the tech package anyway. For those who do not know what they would want, the fact that options can be changed until the moment production of their vehicles begins will really help.