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Best Guess on my Model X Delivery

Best Guess on my Model X Delivery

I understand that nobody really knows, but I'd be very interested in hearing your opinions. My MX Sequence Number is 13,9XX. I thought at one time that Tesla would produce 5,000 MX's in Q4 2015. Then in 2016 they would ramp up to 1,000 per week. I was hoping for delivery in March 2016. I'm pretty sure that won't happen based on what I've read on this forum. Should I expect delivery in Q3? Later?

madodel | 6 October, 2015

Who knows. I have placed my Signature order via the Design Studio, which goes final in 3 more days and I have no idea when it will be delivered. I'm hoping on getting it before Christmas.

NumberOne | 6 October, 2015

No one can base any expectation of anything related to the delivery of their cars on things they read on this forum. 1,000 per week is 4k per month, so if thy ramp up to full production in January you are looking at April. It is better just to be patient. I have #1,8xx. Just because the seats and windshield may have been delayed does not mean that it will not be available soon. People know very little, but they speculate a lot. You know the expression: a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. That is because someone who has a little knowledge may lack a few key facts. The suppliers that are a little slow have a vested interest in having everything on ready very soon.

dave | 6 October, 2015

I got an answer of sorts from Fremont sales personnel: The Sig Xs are expected to be delivered by year-end and then P Xs will start in Q1. I have a Res of 5,xxx and should expect delivery in "late Spring". Based on that, which is admittedly a guess, you aren't likely to get delivery until Q3 or later. I hope I'm wrong in saying this, but you may be looking at Christmas, 2016.

NumberOne | 6 October, 2015

Here is some anecdotal information regarding when orders are final. Many Model X reservation holders also own Model S so we will see how similar the experience is. With Model X the part sourcing begins when the order is placed. Many of the components do not need to be sourced.

The windshield can be ordered in bulk. In fact, they should get a huge stockpile beginning with a 60 day supply and then continuous (Just In Time) supply after that. They already know that they will sell 20,000 cars in the next 12 months, so why not start with being ready with enough materials. The seats and the trim is unique to each vehicle, and something that they cannot guess at this point. However, Tesla can use Model S as a guide, and if they let non Sig people start configuring that would give them a good idea too.

My hope is that we will start seeing some Signature deliveries by the end of October. The question is: How many. I do not want to get my new car in February/March because it might be more difficult to sell my truck at that time. Unfortunately, it will come when it comes.

Jonathangarner | 6 October, 2015

Thanks for your thoughts. Sadly my original number was in the 1500's before I pulled my deposit due to the delays. I'm considering a MS now if I have a long wait ahead of me. If the MX won't be here until 3Q I can do both. If I get an MS now and the MX is ready sooner, I'll be in a tough spot. Where the hell is my Magic 8 Ball?

socalsam | 6 October, 2015

Some of the analysts are predicting no more than 1500-2000 MX deliveries in 2015. That will ramp up in 2016. I think Q3 is a good estimate for you to get your car.

Red Sage ca us | 7 October, 2015

Last week of March 2016 should be the latest, barring disaster, or a huge surge of orders for Model S instead.

condo_minimum_logic | 7 October, 2015

my res # 833 was configured sep. 30 and order confirmed oct 6. first you configure then wait a week and tesla finalizes the order. now they said wait for build date to arrange delivery.

condo_minimum_logic | 7 October, 2015

res #833 today received e-mail from delivery specialist at tesla to get ready for build date and delivery information. I now have contact information with someone who should have up to date info on what is going on. if i do not hear from him in a few days I will call and ask some questions.

Jonathangarner | 8 October, 2015

If you are correct @Red Sage, and you usually seem to be, then I think I will hold off on an S and keep saving for the X. I'll just have to find a different business expense for this year. Plus, I think that the S may get some significant upgrades to make it more X like once it is being built on the new line. Is an S makeover likely?

vandacca | 8 October, 2015

Elon Musk said that the Model-S has been getting about 20 new improvements/adjustments every week. On top of that, they regularly get major improvements (e.g. Power mirrors, camera back-up lines, AWD, upgraded seats, etc.). I have no reason to believe that the Model-S improvements will stop.

Jonathangarner | 8 October, 2015

@vandacca, you are usually right as well. Thanks. I was thinking maybe a new nose that was closer to the X, for example.

elguapo | 8 October, 2015

@condo_minimum_logic Just to clarify, you are a sig holder, correct? Sorry if I missed that elsewhere, but I think it's an important piece of information here.

aesculus | 8 October, 2015

@Jonathangarner: There is a thread over at TMC talking about when/how the MX features will make it to the MS, especially the nose. You should check it out. To me the DLDR version is that there are no major changes planned for the MS. Just the normal incremental improvements mentioned above.

Arvid.nilsson | 8 October, 2015

My number is 3225.
Suddenly my number no longer shows on "my tesla".
What´s going on?
Have I lost my que-number or can expect someone to call me soon?

Arvid

NumberOne | 8 October, 2015

@Arvid.nilsson. Your number did not go anywhere, it is still there, just hidden. If you look at the 'my Tesla' page and view the source code you will find it around line 255. Unless you reserved very recently, you should have a confirmation e-mail giving you your reservation sequence number. I have one, but committed mine to memory right from the start.

For the most recent reservation holders the sequence number will not mean much. Considering that once production is ramped up, Tesla plans to produce 1k per week. There are 26 weeks in 6 months, so the wait will be 26 weeks. or so for new reservations. They will give you an estimated delivery date based on when you place your order, which should eventually shrink to about 2 months. Tesla has said that it will attempt to allow all US reservation holders to configure by then end of 2015, and we can surmise that that Europe will be early next year.

condo_minimum_logic | 8 October, 2015

yes sig. I was told today that tesla wants to deliver all the sigs by the end of the year. tesla said the line is moving but did not know how fast. I always thought that the first 1000 would be sigs only. side note... the tow package with the 22 inch wheels is only rated at 3500 lbs because of clearance issues.

Gayatrikr | 9 October, 2015

This is the email from tesla on oct 7th morning

We will invite the next group of reservation holders to configure in the next few weeks. We hope to invite all current reservation holders to configure their cars before the end of 2015.

MX res17816
S 60 2013
Planning to be the first to book model 3 / Y