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Delay of all 60 KW until 2013

Delay of all 60 KW until 2013

Tesla under delivers for 60kw buyers.....when will they make the 60's

"We have recently revised delivery estimates and production for Model S this year and given your configuration, we current are estimating delivery of your Model S from January to February. This shift is mainly due to the staggered introduction of the 60kWh battery pack. Once the 60kWh Model S goes into production, we will be better able to estimate delivery and will be able to give you a more accurate delivery time then.

In any case, about 2 to 4 weeks before we expect delivery, you will be contacted by your Delivery Experience specialist who will start coordinating and preparing for the delivery of your Model S."

GLO | 28 November, 2012

Where does this leave the 40's?

Vawlkus | 29 November, 2012

Why is this a surprise? Tesla did say they were building the 85s first and that the 60s would follow in 2013.

Timo | 29 November, 2012

That's not quite what they said. 85kWh versions are where they start (signatures first), but they will be doing all of them parallel eventually.

I have vague memory that there were some red tape to deal with with 60 and 40kWh battery packs first. Validations, certification ands so on legal things to do which just can't be rushed.

MB3 | 29 November, 2012

They are waiting for EPA ratings on the smaller battery packs before they can legally sell them.

dashrb | 29 November, 2012

They previously estimated (as per the website configuration page), that production of the 60's would start in November. So this is an actual "expectation miss" event.

Understand they can't rush the red tape, but of course I'm anxiously awaiting news to indicate progress! I'm getting cabin fever!!!

mbcaffe | 29 November, 2012

@mbosem@me.com

I belive your resrvation # is 2971. I am 3446 so you just saved me a phone call.

I believe the production date has changed from Fall 2012 Nov. 1 to Dec 1, 2012 and it now back to fall 2012. Fall ends dec.21,2012 so I am still hoping they begin production in 2012. This is what I expected all along even when I signed the docs and it came back Nov. - Dec 2012.

dashrb | 29 November, 2012

Oh, no! Doesn't the Mayan calendar end on Dec 21 also! We're doomed!

prash.saka | 29 November, 2012

@dashrb, Hahaha +1.

prash.saka | 29 November, 2012

@GLO, I am with you ... where does that leave the 40's?

Dr. Bob Reinke | 29 November, 2012

We are Sig: 1185 and have been told that ours will be in Chicago next week for 5 weeks now. The last excuse was that the semi driver took off on Thanksgiving; therefore our car won't reach Chicaco until Dec 1. Elon is correct, "Tesla has a huge credibility gap." The next call I recieve will likely be that my car was in a huge crash and is in a body shop.

jbunn | 29 November, 2012

Well, Tesla did have a 6 week slip, so if the Novermber start date for 60s this summer slips 6 weeks, that's production start in Jan.

I think during those delays they were probably building the parts that could be built. For example, why idle stamping machines, if you can keep them running. They have a LOT of space at that factory to store partialy completed units. I would guess then that when production opens up to 400 per week, they will ramp up quickly.

I've been seeing some very encouraging results from P holders getting their 30 day delivery announcements, which leads me to belive they may have hit 400. But that's just a guess.

Should not be long now.

GreenMachine13 | 29 November, 2012

Not surprised at all by the delay on the 60's.
Tesla's VP of Manufacturing is a Toyota guy. He would never allow a build-up of parts before needed. That's a good thing. It doesn't speed anything up.

Brian H | 29 November, 2012

Since almost 2/3 of existing orders are probably 85kWh, it makes a great deal of planning and financial sense for TM!

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/poll.php?pollid=122&do=showresults

jbunn | 29 November, 2012

Hi Renzie,

Agreed that JIT is optimal, but balance that with idle hands and idle machinery when the factory is waiting on door handles. What would you do?

What I would do is keep building sub assemblies to the extent I can, get ahead of the game, then when I get a truckload of door handles, redeploy a few extra people to put them on and ship cars.

I'm not suggesting the main issue is really that, but it did come up as a problem at some point.

Manufacturing is going to try and remove critical path itmes, and multi thread whenever possible.

But honestly, I'm just guessing at this. I really don't know what's going on on the factory floor.

GoTeslaChicago | 29 November, 2012

"2/3 of orders are 85kwh"

I have my doubts Sample is pretty small and probably skewed by including signatures which are 100% 85 kwh.

mbosem | 29 November, 2012

In a call to my new ownership rep to express my displeasure and disappointment with the two plus month delay, I was offered
a. refund if not happy
b. switch to 85kw but still early 2013 as I would be at the end
c. wait
I might have gone 85KW if I new that TM was going to delay all the 60's in 2013
My original rep said once production started all 3 packs would be made
Too late now.

Lou in SoCal | 29 November, 2012

With the delay of the 60kWh, who knows when they'll start producing the 40kWh. With my daily commutes, I'm on the fence between the two. Seeing how the 60 delayed, I may just go with the 60 instead of the 40.

Also, I'm still a little confused on the email I received that current reservations will be invited to finalize by January. If I finalize in January (I'm P13,490), I may have to wait much more than the 3-4 mnths they indicated after configuration.

GreenMachine13 | 29 November, 2012

Jbunn, I'm guessing too. It's fun sometimes. From your example I had a picture of Tesla's huge stamping machine making parts that would go into storage. This is commonly known as WIP(work in process). WIP=$$$. It's usually best to have $$$ collecting interest(or invested) versus WIP collecting dust. Theory of constraints would indicate cars can't be built faster than the slowest bottleneck. In this case, the bottleneck has zero throughput if there is no part. Also, building cars without a part is usually a quality no-no. The process and sequence to assemble a car is carefully planned and variances usually cause problems. A missing door handle could affect dozens of other processes from being completed. This is why some automakers had to idle lines after the Japanese tsunami.

I apologize for the off-topic banter. Early in my career I was a manufacturing engineer for a couple different automakers.

I'm not expecting delivery of my 60 kWh until March.
#7898.

jbunn | 29 November, 2012

Lou, I should think perhaps mid July.

Renzie, that's a good perspective. I've been guess from a perspective of keeping human resources and capital equipiment from sitting idle, with cost but no output. I do agree that rework and custom work is the enemy and to be avoided. I guess it depends on what parts are the hold up. Specificaly, how late in the build do they get installed. Thanks for the off topic discussion. I like thinking about what might be afoot over there.

jkirkebo | 2 December, 2012

GTC: The poll at TMC is not including signatures. It is for P&R reservations only. Including sigs would make no sense.

DTsea | 2 December, 2012

Renzie is exactly right. Batch production leads to out of sequence work, which costs more, and the parts have marginal cost even if labor is available since they consume materials. Better to apply the labor to cars that can be delivered and book the revenue. Building up parts inventory hurts cash- you turn cash to parts you can't sell, and you have to keep track of them all!

I have res number 5912 and selected 60 kWh. I called this week and they said still late Feb 13(my window is jan-feb). They have to homologate the car and I get the impression EPA mileage cert is the remaining hurdle.

Ceilidh | 2 December, 2012

Hey TMC: could you post something in the FAQ section about the 60 kWh battery production and delivery?

How long until EPA cert is done? Have you made them and just can't deliver them yet, or has production not started on them at all? When will the first be delivered?

Some of us with 60 kWh battery reservations are very early Tesla supporters.

As P912, it would be nice to get a bit of love back.

Throw me a bone.

Cheers.

mbcaffe | 3 December, 2012

@ceilidh
+1.
I even sujbmitted a request in the bulletin board section of the forum
http://www.teslamotors.com/forums/inside-tesla/tesla-bulletin-board

joey | 3 December, 2012

Just spoke to my tesla rep and was told the 60kw production that was supposed to begin this week, will not begin until jan. A blog post will come out today or tomorrow with more details, but I should realistically hope for Feb. delivery. At P65 I was assured mine would be one of the first batch. Will post a firm delivery date as soon as I am notified.

Brian H | 3 December, 2012

Maybe there are going to be so few 40s and 60s that TM should just upgrade the current reservationists for free, cancel the option for the "little" batteries, and be done with it?‼?

LOL

Discoducky | 3 December, 2012

@joey, that would be very nice of you, thanks!

I submitted the question to TM as well about if they are going to make their "Fall 2012" enters production date from the "Options and Pricing" page

mbcaffe | 3 December, 2012

I suppose the only good news on the delay is that with more software updates, we will get a better product.

mbcaffe | 3 December, 2012
Volker.Berlin | 3 December, 2012

Ooops. Submit crossed with mbcaffe.

Drdon220 | 3 December, 2012

@Joey. That matches up with my discussion with my rep as well as the local store manager. Both couldn't give any specifics, but said to expect a Jan/Feb delivery. I also heard comment on a possible blog post from tesla on the 60 kWh vehicles. My number is #P1887. Based on what I've been seeing with the batching, they'll probably run most 60kWh vehicles in one batch.
On a good note, I heard that the recent cars coming off the line have sensors installed in the bumpers, most likely a future upgrade on the parking system!
Keep telling ourselves "Be Patient"

Drdon220 | 3 December, 2012

I think the official update came through as I was submitting. Thanks for the update!

mbcaffe | 3 December, 2012

@volker.berlin
sorry for treading on your territory. You do such a great job.

Volker.Berlin | 3 December, 2012

;-)

Chuck Lusin | 3 December, 2012

This will initially make the delivery date predictions a little harder for the 60 and 40's. So after March of 2013, I would assume that the production would start flowing back in reservation number sequence (with batching), with the lower numbers having priority again. IMO.

Getting Amped Again | 3 December, 2012

Just received this:

We are actively ramping up production of Model S and now have a clear timeline regarding when certain options will begin production. You are receiving this update because you have ordered a Model S with an option that was not available at start of production.

This email covers production timing for 60 kWh cars, 40 kWh cars, Standard (Coil) Suspension and the new 2013 Red multi-coat exterior paint.

60 kWh cars will begin production in January 2013. Deliveries will begin in January/early February.

40 kWh cars will begin production in March 2013. Deliveries will begin in March/early April.

Our original plan was to deliver 5,000 Model S in 2012. In our November letter to shareholders, we reduced our 2012 plan to between 2,500 and 3,000 while reaffirming 20,000 deliveries in 2013. This basically "shifted" our production ramp back about two months for all options not available at start of production. Our original plan was to begin production of 60 kWh cars in November, 40 kWh cars and Standard (Coil) Suspension in January, and new Red exterior paint in March. Our current production ramp takes this original plan and shifts each item back approximately two months except for the new Red.

Below is the current Production Sequencing Timeline for 2013:
• 60 kWh Model S with Active Air Suspension will phase into production in January 2013
• 40 kwh Model S will phase into production in March 2013
• 40, 60 and 85 kWh cars with Standard Suspension will begin production in March 2013
• 2013 Red multi-coat paint will begin production in March 2013 (no change from original plan)
Once we begin producing Model S with each option, your sequence number and order date will determine your placement in the build schedule. We will be producing about 400 cars per week as each option phases into production, so cars will flow fairly quickly once production of a particular option begins.

We will continue to provide regular updates regarding these options as each gets closer to phasing into production. We have not done a great job at all in the past regarding communication on these items. I fully acknowledge our shortfall in this area. We now have a much better understanding of what it will take to bring each of these options into production and will do a much better job of communicating about them going forward. Rest assured we will move as quickly as possible on each item.

We will be announcing 60 kWh 5-cycle EPA range certification soon. This puts us on track for a January start of 60 kWh Model S production.

Thank you for your Model S order. We are looking forward to building your Model S.

George Blankenship

Getting Amped Again | 3 December, 2012

Errrggggg - this was already posted, sorry. What's important was that my delivery estimate was supposed to be "Feb/Mar" when I finalized my MVPA a week ago. I'm thinking April/May is more realistic now based on this email and I think there are a relatively small number of red, 40 kWh or coil suspension cars ahead of me.

trydesky | 3 December, 2012

I got that letter today as well. It must be some strange coincidence, because this morning I emailed Tesla asking when they were going to start production on the 60kwh versions. I also stated how I was extremely disappointing that 2012 will come and go, and I won't have my car...especially when so many tentative delivery dates have come and gone.

Sudre_ | 6 December, 2012

Reading the last few posts in the Delivery thread I am beginning to wonder if they plan on delivering any 60kWh cars until Feb. They just sent out notices up to P89xx and higher. That would be around 10 weeks of making 85kWh cars before they touch a 60kWh car..... unless they are adding a 2nd shift. (I assumed that 45% of the cars are 85kWh)

Sounds like they will start making them in the last week of Jan.... if we are lucky. (They are known for missing deadlines IMHO)

GLO | 6 December, 2012

I suspect there are many 60kw's out there. But i too am a tad frustrated that they are into the 8XXX's now...

Brian H | 6 December, 2012

They'll begin to blend in 60s before that, apparently. See the Bulletin Board. http://www.teslamotors.com/forums/inside-tesla/tesla-bulletin-board

Kit-60kWh now 85D | 6 December, 2012

I'm feeling really disappointed with the delay. I knew the 85kwh cars would be made first, but all of them? I'm not here to buy a top-of-the-line luxury car. I'm here for the best conceived and build electric car. Maybe I'm in the wrong place. I've delighted in the innovations, loved the factory tour and the test drive. But it really hurts to see all the people who reserved probably a year after me gloating at their new cars!

Brian H | 6 December, 2012

Kit;
Of course not all of them.
The inflow of reservations of both types is continuous. Read this: http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/when-will-40-kwh-cars-60-kwh-car...

Liz G | 6 December, 2012

@kit I so understand where you are coming from. I have definitely been having a hard time keeping my Zen like approach these past few days.

Not having any idea when my car will come is what is making it worse.

Ok back to meditating... Ummmm Ummmmm

mbcaffe | 6 December, 2012

I can understand that Tesla wants to make as many 85 kWh cars as possible, but they sent e-mails to reservation numbers beyond 8000. That would indicate that the 40 kWh, 60 kWh and standard suspension cars are about 70% of the reservations. I believe they will try and be fair.

MB3 | 6 December, 2012

To be fair, none of us knows what problems Tesla is seeing in terms of cancellations, production or supply problems, future production plans etc. I would expect them to do what is necessary to remain cash flow positive and keep the company going. Hopefully they can do that without disenfranchising too many customers.

Kit-60kWh now 85D | 7 December, 2012

I'm still a very strong supporter. I just was down about the timing and regret I expressed myself and hit Send. I trust Tesla Motors to do the very best they can for all of us. I am very impressed with all I've learned about their manufacturing processes and the rationale for them.

Brian H | 7 December, 2012

MB3;
strange concept -- "disenfranchising" customers. Except insofar as customers are volunteer sales staff! Or impairing or removing their ability to choose what to buy ...