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Model S wait gone up??

Model S wait gone up??

Has the model S wait time gone up recently? Its Mid May - S60/S85 is showing Sept (no early or late indication) and P85 is late Aug. Seems like at least 2 weeks increase from recent past or am I not remembering it right?

EdwardG.NO2CO2 | 17 May, 2014

What date did you confirm?

shop | 17 May, 2014

It goes up and down all the time as they launch new overseas markets on the one hand, and increase production capacity on the other hand. Also there is a 2 week manufacturing line shutdown starting July 1st to reconfigure the line for higher throughput.

llngoc | 17 May, 2014

Yes, I have been waiting for August delivery date to roll in to coincide with my other car's lease return and saw that August delivery lasted only a few days and now my order is late August.

dmital001 | 17 May, 2014

I think cars shipping to China/Europe might be resulting in delay.
Good news for investors, not so much for new buyers in the US line...

ghillair | 17 May, 2014

Production in the first month - six weeks of the quarter goes into the overseas pipeline so it can be delivered by end of quarter.

Then the rest of the quarter is US delivery so that it too can be delivered by end of quarter.

Out4aDuck | 17 May, 2014

That's interesting because folks who confirmed a week ago (up to VIN 45000) are still being promised June delivery. It could be that with the shutdown and overseas pipeline fill, there will be very few cars delivered in July. Much like it was in January.

oildeathspiral | 17 May, 2014

Yes, it appears wait times have increased. The MS order page has changed since I last checked it. Instead of the monthly wait verbage at the bottom of each model offering, it now displays September as the estimated delivery date for the MS60 and 85 and late August for the P85 in the Order section. All of these wait times are much longer than I've seen, at least before June 2012...

bebopagogo | 17 May, 2014

I'm glad I got mine in under the wire with a late April confirmation and late June delivery date. I suspect there's about to be a big wave of people like myself that were just a little bit cautious to see how things played out before jumping aboard, regardless how much I wanted. Just wish I had placed my order back before the prices went up. But maybe they'll go up again if demand is high …

Fasteddie | 17 May, 2014

I waited 93 days for my Model S 85 from the day I confirmed the order (11/29/13) until it was delivered (3/2/14). It was the longest wait I've ever experienced. But, it sure was worth it!

Kimscar | 17 May, 2014

@shop where did you hear the shutdown of factory to reconfigure. I'm due third week of July. I hate to be the guinea pig

Kleist | 17 May, 2014

@Kimscar - 10 days shutdown in July announced in the 1Q conference call.

Wait times going up I can believe. For 15 months my MS was the only one at my work location ( about 2000 folks ), 3 weeks ago we got 3 more and Friday a week ago 2 told me they had placed the order and last week 2 folks talked to me to answer some questions before they order. In my little world it is like breeding rabbits this year... I'll guess we'll end up with 10-15 by end the of 2014.

Brian G. | 17 May, 2014

During the Q1 earnings call, Elon mentioned Tesla had already sold all of the cars they could make during Q2. And of course they'll take the factory offline for a few days to reconfigure it to make cars with steering wheels on the right.

KdotB | 17 May, 2014

My present self is slapping my past self for waiting so long to order, while my future self is driving around with a giant tesla grin

Sigh

tes-s | 17 May, 2014

Seems like the window for a Q2 delivery is gone. My guess is cars ordered from now through the end of July will be delivered in Q3, with most of those deliveries coming in September.

I think US wait times will go up a bit from where they have been - China shipments and July shutdown.

hillcountryfun | 17 May, 2014

Shop:

Yes, in the Q2 Q and A Elon mentioned the July - 2 Week shutdown, but where did you hear July 1st?

Thanks!!

Iowa92x | 17 May, 2014

China and factory robots upgraded in July.

BiffandSully | 17 May, 2014

I confirmed May 11 and my dashboard is still showing late June delivery

arldent3300 | 17 May, 2014

@BiffandSully

Which model did you order?

I confirmed P85 on May 13 and my dashboard shows late August delivery! Wonder why? Incredible how confirming two days later ended up to be two months later :(((

shop | 17 May, 2014

It might not have been July 1st, I can't recall exactly. Pretty sure it was July though. The shutdown isn't for RHD, it is to reconfigure line for faster throughput.

carlk | 18 May, 2014

Don't mean to rub it in but I finalized on 3/7 and picked up my P85+ 3/29, the shortest wait I know of.

Brian H | 18 May, 2014

You lie like a rug. Rubbing hard ... ? >;)

Mathew98 | 18 May, 2014

Nothing wrong with 3 weeks delivery if Carlk had waived the 2 weeks finalizing period and picked up his P85+ from the factory back in March. Just in time to push end of quarter number.

It is a different story now with non US deliveries as priority.

Thomas N. | 18 May, 2014

I configured my same car this morning that I did a year ago. I would pay around 8K more and I'd get it at the end of August. That's over three months and that's for a priority P85.

I'd have a couple features I don't have (carbon fiber spoiler, alcantara headliner, auto-close mirrors) but I think I'm happy with what I have.

I had no idea the wait was three months now.

SamO | 18 May, 2014

Looks like the spring buying season is in full swing.

Demand is Definitely UP.

Worldwide.

hillcountryfun | 18 May, 2014

Thanks Shop...

We're scheduled to take delivery at the end of July and our DS is currently working to find out the dates of the line upgrade. I'll post when I learn the dates -

KdotB | 18 May, 2014

Good thing I skipped the 2 week period. Finalized on May 10....My Tesla just has an ominous July written as delivery date....early July, late July....who knows. Sales guy told me could be end of June when I was placing the order. I'm already having a tough time...waiting into August would have been hard

dmital001 | 18 May, 2014

Wow @mayfield302 seems is confirming that P85 is late Aug delivery.
I wonder if based on the delay we can estimate the number being shipped worldwide...
It would still be a rough estimate - typical analyst type call it may be up or it may be down but we are sure of it :-)

BiffandSully | 18 May, 2014

@mayfield

Ours is an S85 with fairly stripped down options (MC red/tan leather/pano/tech/rear seats). Just checked dashboard again - late June delivery to St Louis service center. But I don't know how accurate that is..haven't touched base with my delivery specialist.

carlk | 18 May, 2014

@Mathew98 Exactly. Timing is everything. I suspected that too when the DS informed me that the delivery date will be 3/31, the last day of the quarter, and later moved up to 3/29 when production completed early. It helped too that I had a factory delivery and a pretty loaded MS.

@Brain H I did say it with a straight face.

@dmital001 Someone just mentioned to have an assigned VIN that's 7200 above mine finalized exactly two months after I did. It appears Tesla is receiving orders, or releasing VIN's, way ahead of their stated production capability at this moment.

dmital001 | 18 May, 2014

Looks like its about 6 weeks worth of cars being delivered to the non-US customers and that's all for Q3 delivery.
I would guess (pure guess) that a substantial number of those are to china - 3500?? Any other guesses/more informed numbers?

NKYTA | 18 May, 2014

@dmital001, well...we haven't heard from @tes-s in a day or so...

Just sayin'.
;-) ;-)

DieAbetic | 18 May, 2014

LOL @ NKYTA.

I've been waiting for tes-s...

Mathew98 | 18 May, 2014

He would say the longer wait time is due to lower demands. As counter measure, some of the workers have to take a hike for a few months to artificially inflate the wait time... Let the evil empire rise!!!

pfgenius | 18 May, 2014

I ordered my P85+ on 5/13 and it's showing late July delivery.

dmital001 | 18 May, 2014

Folks, He has already posted a surprise. No more fun for ya all:

tes-s | May 17, 2014

Seems like the window for a Q2 delivery is gone. My guess is cars ordered from now through the end of July will be delivered in Q3, with most of those deliveries coming in September.

I think US wait times will go up a bit from where they have been - China shipments and July shutdown.

bradslee | 19 May, 2014

If you go to Tesla Beijing showroom, you can see how busy the Tesla sales people are in selling MS.

The Tesla delivery team has even been busier in delivering MS to Chinese customers (including both individual buyers and bulk company buyers) in both Beijing and Shanghai. Many of the Tesla delivery team members in China have taken the straight 40 working days without a single day off in order to meet the delivery goal to Chinese customers. No doubt that Q2 will show big revenue numbers from China. This will be absolutely good news to Tesla investors.

socalsam | 19 May, 2014

I ordered the car on May 15. I waived the two period by confirming on the 16th. I'm glad I did because my delivery time is showing late July which hopefully means mid July. Looks like soon after they started pushing things back to q3 or September.

amatiych | 19 May, 2014

I ordered on the 5th. Confirmed a week later. The dashboard says July but I got a call from local service center that they expect the car to be here in NY on July 18. Before I confirmed the dashboard said August.

goehring9 | 19 May, 2014

Ordered my S85 on April 24, was told would be "first week of July" but dashboard showing end of June. It didn't seem that long at the time, but now the days are just dragging!

tes-s | 19 May, 2014

Seems similar to what we have been seeing before - cars confirmed in the first half of the quarter were delivered same quarter. Cutoff this quarter seems to be about a week earlier: May 9 instead of May 16.

Q3 has an added 2-week delay due to plant shutdown - which is what we are seeing in cars ordered now. My guess is all US cars confirmed by July will be delivered in Q3, with about half of all Q3 US deliveries occurring in September. Very few US deliveries in July. If you want a short wait time in the US, confirm end of July.

Good thing US orders were down last quarter, and probably flat or down this quarter - otherwise there would be a BIG increase in US wait time as they open international markets (like China) and deal with the pent-up demand there. As it is, we are seeing only about 2 weeks added to US wait time, with thousands of cars now going to China. China sounds as if it could eat up 100% of production all by itself!

Al1 | 19 May, 2014

Production did go up. Number of Tesla in California and neighbor Arizona is growing exponentially. At least as per current Tesla owners. No issues known among Tesla owners community except for Tesla grin and excitement. Delivery time does creep up.

Conclusion?

"US orders were down last quarter, and will probably remain flat or down this quarter".

E. Musk said on record orders went up 10%. Oh, he must be just saying.

How do we know orders are up is Tesla CEO just saying to his share holders at an official call, rather orders being down is a pure fantasy of one of us? Oh, that's really simple! That's usually what you expect to see when there is a new technology called disruptive and a game changer! Orders are down quarter after quarter after quarter. Luckily there are plenty of early adopters in other markets. Where could they ever come from?

Well, don't you guys know it by now? As soon as you give an interview to a newspaper about your wonderful new invention, your email account is being attacked by early adopters from as far as China and Australia, willing to make a deposit and then wait for more than a year or so to actually receive the product.

socalsam | 19 May, 2014

So it seems that the orders are being filled faster than what it says on the dashboard. So if mine says late july, what are the chances it comes early july? I better get cooking on my trade in. Need to sell my current car!

tes-s | 19 May, 2014

E. Musk did not say orders went up. He said net orders (backlog) went up by 10%. But deliveries dropped by more than that, so orders received went down.

SamO | 19 May, 2014

The wait is going up as orders are going up.

Next quarter when waits go down, but production goes up 50%, that WON'T mean demand is down.

Please stop with this delusion.

SamO | 19 May, 2014

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/31153-Website-wait-times-f...

From the Post:

The question I sent to Tesla Investor Relations:
"Can you tell me, as a holder of many shares of TSLA, why the estimated delivery dates reported on the Tesla website move back considerably to September?
Is it increased demand? China orders? Or?"

I.R. Reply: Congratulations! You are the first to notice. We've been trying to tell investors that demand is growing even in our most mature markets, so wait times are extending. That's the answer.

carlk | 19 May, 2014

@SamO Why are you keep on feeding us the garbage? What do Tesla know about orders they receive? Didn't you hear tes-s say it's not the case?

Bighorn | 19 May, 2014

Yeah, Samo--you're in CA. Open your eyes and recognize the fact that nobody is buying these cars anymore. That ship has sailed. When's the last time you saw a temporary tag?

tes-s | 19 May, 2014

Yes, the CA ship has sailed. At least those numbers we know from CA registrations. Declining each quarter for a year.

Yes, please stop with the garbage!! They were very clear that new orders coming in for the US are down each quarter.

"Demand" is an interesting word - of course "demand" for an awesome car is up! It is just quarter-over-quarter US orders that are down.

oildeathspiral | 19 May, 2014

tes-s

Tesla DID NOT say that new orders coming in for the US are down each quarter. Nor were they "very clear" that new orders are down. Here is exactly what Tesla said:

"Yes, John, just to clarify, we said the orders in North America were up 10%, not deliveries.

John D. Lovallo – Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.

Okay, but how were the deliveries in the quarter in North America?

Jeffrey B. Straubel

The deliveries were down. We were trying to reduce the lead time in Europe. We had a long lead time there, and we were shipping a lot of cars into Europe, so that we come to a more even lead time between North America and Europe."

Based on your reputation, I have to ask if you were mistaken or lying?

Kutu | 19 May, 2014

I confirmed my MS 3/25 and it's on a truck in Texas right now (5/19). I'll pick it up 5/23 in Orlando.

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