Predicted starting price for regular and large battery?
P.S. The jumbo pack will probably be > 85 kWh.
@clorxbb - I think you have not taken the 30% performance cost improvement into account. At most $34.95. ;)
At least offer three EZ payments of $19....
...and throw in a Popiel Pocket Fisherman. I always wanted one of those.
Shipping and handling extra.
Except where prohibited.
@jjs, Can't wait to see the "rants" when the order pager goes live with actual prices.
A story in PC Mag say staring at $55k, where did that come from?
a California Dreamer. I would be happy if this was actually going to be the case, but I do not think so. Probably 63 to 65k to start.
I can't believe it will be less than the S starting price, and with the front motor suspect it will be $5-6K more than the base S.
EM has suggested about a 10% bump.
It will have to be more than the S for sure, the motor, second inverter, doors, my guess is about $10,000 more than base S.
The S starting price is $59,9k We know that that is just the base price, and that very few people actually end up getting the base. Having a lower base price makes sense for many people who live in states where there is a personal property tax on cars. In Virginia it is close to 3K for the first year,assessed on the base price, and it does not go down as fast as one might hope. In Virginia the tax is something like 4% of the bluebook value each year, in addition to annual registration fees, sales taxes and what I call the annual EV penalty (a road use surcharge from which hybrids and extended range EVs such as the Volt are exempt)
I am not sure how good math is, but 10%, which is higher than what Elon has said in the past (he has said single low single digit price increase) translates to an increase of about $6k when compared to the base S.
Remember that the cost of the batteries Panasonic is producing have been reduced ever so slightly per unit, due to the significant production increase agreement with Tesla bringing about streamlining and other manufacturing improvements. It think that only time will tell, but Tesla is not going to start the X as high as some of you think, because they want as many people to boy it as possible. There are far fewer orders for the $120k Model S, than what was the case initially, and the Model X is aimed at a totally different demographic, although I am sure there will still be a standard, performance and performance+. The vast majority of orders will be for the 85kWh pack standard model. Tesla is also in a much better position now to produce more of both the S and X.
Speculation at this junction is pointless, but I do not see a base price lower than $63k or higher than $65k for the 65kWh model X. When adding the tech package, which I think my be required if the doors are to be motorized, will probably be the same as the Model S, which is $3,750, then comes other things such as the third row seats which is unlikely to be more than $2,500. That puts the cost of the 60kwh model at about $71k which is indeed about $10k more than the base S, the options cost the same on all versions, but add $10k for the larger battery pack (or $7,500, because it is supercharger enabled).
Red Sage's WAG Model X 2016 Pricing
Vehicle kWh Range (mi) Cost
Model X 85* 216-240 59,900
Model X 100 254-282 69,900
Model X P 100 254-282 89,900
Model X P+ 142 360-400 109,900
* Software limited. Upgradeable to 100 kWh.
Please let this be the truth and not our hope...
Tesla wants to lower the price of all their cars, and when the
battery cost and weight is lower, we are likely to see larger battery packs. This in unlikely for the Model X however. While possible, I really doubt Model X will be offered with anything larger than 85kWh.
As far as the $55k price mentioned in PC mag., I do not think it is far fetched. It may have more to do with lowering the base price as much as possible for those that have to pay an annual property tax an the value (initially assessed on the base price.)
I just used the Model S design studio to see what a comparable Model S would price at, and without the Federal Tax Credit it added up to close to $100k. Very few people will actually order at the $55k lever, and Tesla will still make a healthy profit on them. The vast majority of people will pay more than $85k (especially with the third row seat), which is what my original goal was, but it is clear that this, but adding dual chargers, premium audio, cold weather, leather etc., has a price. I plan on driving this car for a very long time, so in the scheme of things it may not be wise to opt out of features that one might later want.
I think a slightly lower base model price will have other benefits too. When people call Model S super expensive (i.e. beyond the means of most) I quickly point out that the base model started at $59,9k, and while the price has been increased by about $3k, it is a lot more affordable than people think. With the X starting at a lower price than that even, Tesla is making good on their commitment to making EVs more affordable, while in reality people will still choose to pay more. I will also be able to tell people who ask that Model X starts at only $55k, which does not seem so bad. No one needs to know what options I have and how much they cost.
The day of the EV is coming closer.
@Red Sage: I am glad you are so positive, and I hope your prediction comes to fruition.
I am budgeting for the 85k model x being no higher then 90k. I really hope it is not higher then that. Please Mr. Musk keep it in that range. Reservation # 9682
We better hope for price point savings based on efficiencies gained learned from the S production and economies of scale to get to $59.900.
TM is still using the S and X to produce gross margins in excess of 25%. Those profits are put back into the company so they can produce the Gen III which is the more affordable TM product.
The Roadster owners were the guinea pigs for TM. S and X owners are subsidizing the company and EV adoption and have to accept that we are supporting larger gross margins than ICE car makers make. I can't see Red Sage's numbers although I respect his attempts to predict them.
I think the X will start $10k higher than the S. People are willing to pay more for a crossover than a similarly sized sedan (perceived xtra value in SUVs). If Elon wants to maintain the 25 to 30% margin, I don't see how the X will be less than $70k on up. If I'm wrong and it starts in the $50s, I'll pay cash for one.
Until the battery factory comes online, we won't see a large decrease in cost. Battery makes up more than half of the manufacturing cost of Tesli.
The property tax issue is really important in states like Virginia (It ads more than $10k to the cost of the car during the first 5 years), so I would not be too surprised if the base price is less than the Model S. You are not likely to want the base model however, and you will see why once the design studio is up an running. Most people are going to want at least some options, and those who do not are not going to be statistically significant enough to have a real impact on overall margins. There is a major difference between the base price and what you actually pay.
Base EXCLUDES supercharging and the warranty on the battery is more limited. Also, the twin charger option is quite handy if you have access to 80amp charging where superchargers are not available. Those two things alone would add at least $3.5k to the base price. Also, some options may be more than you expect in order to facilitate a lower base price, but continue speculating if you want. Even if the base is less than $60k I still expect to pay close to $100k because several features are essential to me, such as motorized falcon wing doors etc.
Better let JB Straubel know. He thinks it's <25%.
Sorry guys, base will not be below $70. I predict $74,900 for 60 battery.
These things will sell much better than the S like all SUV's do. Why should he lower profit on the X when he is ramping EVERYTHING up for years to come, maybe 10 years. He needs the cash.
Plus the cost of doors will be up, extra motor, driveline, inverter.
I am glad you are so certain! I will however, just wait. For me a lower base price means less personal property taxes every year. The purchase price that I pay and the sales tax will be much more. the base regardless of what that might be.