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Solar Roof Progression (UPDATE 2/13)

Solar Roof Progression (UPDATE 2/13)

****UPDATE: 2/13/2020****
**Updated calculations to reflect a true economic comparison to traditional shingles roof.**

Live data tracker!!!! https://drive.google.com/open?id=1CnpXjBb4D6-uTYXwgJthA1RozQWxWS018_G3BG...

Below is updated numbers. This is still not the final design:

Solar Roof Cost for my house:
1,859sf Roof
9.4kW System
Est. Annual Production: 8258 kWh

NO POWERWALLS:
$39,156.09

Financing Info:
NO POWERWALLS
20 year loan @ 6.99%:
$303.34/mo

NYS Tax Credit: $5,000
Federal Tax Credit: $6,446
Total: $11,446

Shingles Roof Estimates: ~$16,000

Life span of Shingles Roof: ~25 years.
Life span of the Solar Roof: 60 years. I think its more realistic to use 50 years.

Shingles Roof needs 2 replacements by the end of Solar Roof life, which translates to ~$32,000.

Solar Roof recovers $11,446 from tax credits, and generates about $900/yr in electricity.

25 year warranty guarantees 87.5% of solar's nominal rated power generation due to degradation at the end of the warranty.

Sunlight Region Info: Albany, NY
Potential Annual Energy Generation: 8,258kWh
Potential Annual Value of Energy: $929.02
Maximum Utility Payout for Energy (1/3): $309.67

50 year cost:
Shingles Roof: -$32,000.

Solar Roof:
Electricity Value: 900x50x0.875= +$39,375
Home Appreciation Value: ~5% (traditional solar panels) = ~+$10,000
Tax Credits: +$11,446
Solar Roof: -$39,156.40

Add them all up and you get: +$21,664.60

After 50 years you will be net positive 21 thousand dollars instead of being negative 32 thousand for a traditional roof.

Time to break even: 10,000 + 11,446 - 39,156 = -17,710
-17,710 + (900*X) = 0
X = 19.6777

Break even period is 20 years based on electricity rates of $0.1125/kWh.

andy.connor.e | 19 January, 2020

Nuked the old thread because im going to move forward with this until i get more information that may or may not be desirable.

Called Tesla yesterday and asked about main panel compatibility. Any 200A, 250A, 300A main panel should be compatible with the system that they install. I currently have a 60A main so that pretty much doesnt work anymore so im getting an upgrade before the roof.

Tesla2018 | 19 January, 2020

Any time frame on when solar roofs are going to become available? I figure my roof has got about five years left unless a hurricane takes it off but Tesla said they were coming out with tiles several years ago but nothing ever happened except for the model houses from Desperate Housewives that they used and a couple other ones.
I plan on retiring in about 5 years so if I stay then it would be worth it to have them installed, but if I decide to move I don't know if I would be able to recover the difference in the cost.

andy.connor.e | 19 January, 2020

Nope. I asked about that and he couldnt even give an answer because they have absolutely no idea. But i bet if you live in California it wont be much longer. My roof is definitely at the end of its life this year, could probably make it 1 more year but would be best to get it done now while the federal tax credit is 26%. Next year its down another 4%, which in the grand scheme of things is really alot with the price of the roof and potentially powerwalls.

Im imagining if i ever move i am going to turn my house into a rental property. The roof makes sense.

TeslaTap.com | 20 January, 2020

Tesla has already been installing them now in California. I hope to get my roof on in a few days - it keeps sliding out each week due to rain, but they have already completed others locally. They need 3-4 days of clear weather. I suspect once the rain abates in our area, they will be going like gangbusters. Powerwalls are mounted, as these only take one day, so easier to find a single non-rainy day.

I expect the major issue is having Tesla roofing teams available in your area. Once they open the solar roof up to all roofing contractors, I'd expect the entire USA to be covered. That may happen later this year.

Tesla2018 | 20 January, 2020

TeslaTap- Are the tile design options the same as the ones they originally came out with?

TeslaTap.com | 20 January, 2020

They only have Textured tiles, but that's what I wanted. Other styles are not available yet.

andy.connor.e | 20 January, 2020

I like the textured. Smooth is also pretty slick looking, but is relatively indifferent to me.

blue adept | 20 January, 2020

@TeslaTap.com

>>> "Once they open the solar roof up to all roofing contractors, I'd expect the entire USA to be covered." <<<

I don't see that as being all that advisable as that could, potentially, expose Tesla to a variety of liability claims stemming from improperly installed and/or inadequately operating solar roof systems.

andy.connor.e | 21 January, 2020

Yea i was kind of hoping that Tesla would install the roof, and not some other contracting company who is going to do a cob job to get it done super fast.

TeslaTap.com | 21 January, 2020

So far I'm been impressed with Tesla's team. They have their own independent inspectors too that come out at various points during the work. My guess is if they allow others to install the solar roof, they would retain the inspections to ensure the jobs are done correctly. They may also just stick with doing it all themselves in the future.

While the major markets could be addressed by Tesla, I don't see how they could get enough volume to justify teams in rural areas, so it may be a choice between no availability or allowing contractors in select areas.

It will be interesting to see how they change in 2021 when they up production capacity and what new directions they take.

andy.connor.e | 21 January, 2020

I am crossing my fingers that they get to my area this year.

blue adept | 22 January, 2020

@TeslaTap.com

I think it'll come down to "volume" as well and can see them continuing to keep installations 'in house' to ensure both the quality of the install and the integrity of the system's performance since customer satisfaction and positive public perception will both be top priorities.

andy.connor.e | 27 January, 2020

Just got a call that my solar roof design is done, call tonight to discuss!!!! I wonder if that had anything to do with the fact that i called to verify main panel compatibility and they realized that i was actually a serious customer.

andy.connor.e | 27 January, 2020

OP updated based on call with Tesla representative 1/27 (today).

andy.connor.e | 30 January, 2020

Some more information. According to Zillow and hundreds of thousands of homes, having solar increases the value of your home by 5%. The true number is 5.1%, and if anything the solar roof would be more valuable because its a roof that can last about 60 years. So if i dont have to replace this roof until im 86, thats a pretty good deal.

After the 25 year warranty expires, the solar panels themselves are guaranteed to still maintain 87.5% of their rated capacity of generation. Which is not that much degradation over more than two decades.

I have decided today to move forward with the solar roof. Installation should begin somewhere after the beginning of Apirl.

andy.connor.e | 30 January, 2020

Live data tracker out!!

TeslaTap.com | 30 January, 2020

@andy.connor.e - Good info. So if your house is worth more than $1M, spending $50K on solar returns $50K in house value, and you save even more from the free electricity you use. Lots of variables here - house value, how large a solar system you install, cost of that system, and how much electricity you use. Still, not too hard to figure it out. Also, 26% of the solar install can be a credit on taxes too. Some states offer additional deals, but not California.

I hope to have the solarroof panels finished being installed tomorrow. It may take a while for PG&E to approve and allow activation. I've heard up to 4 weeks. So far the Tesla Energy team have been excellent.

andy.connor.e | 30 January, 2020

Yes i will essentially recover 50% of the cost from the tax credits and house value. And i wont be paying a dime because im going to just siphon money out of my airbnb income. So to me its just worth it across the board. I also want to stick it to family members to show that its possible, this is the economics of it, and maybe neighbors will ask about it.

andy.connor.e | 31 January, 2020

Final property assessment this Monday. Its been months of silence and now everythings moving very fast.

andy.connor.e | 13 February, 2020

OP has been updated to reflect real world economic calculations.

Disclaimer: These calculations are specific to my property, my areas exposure to sunlight, and my electricity rates. Your numbers may vary.

Tesla2018 | 13 February, 2020

Is the 6.99% loan rate from Tesla or someplace else?
That rate seems high since Home Equity Credit lines are currently lower. You can also do a refi on your mortgage and get an even lower rate, but may have some closing costs.
Also can you deduct the interest on your loan as a home improvement or does it not qualify since it is maintenance?

andy.connor.e | 13 February, 2020

Financing is through Mosaic. I dont have enough home equity to pay for this. Will look into the interest write off. I would think that it should be considered home improvement since the solar roof will increase the property value.

WhiteWind | 17 February, 2020

My electricity generation estimated at 1390 bucks a year 3140sqft roof 9.3 kWh glass roof 43k before credits in GA. Paid for roof replacement 3 years ago 12k only bc I knew owner, home Depot gave us 18k estimate lol.