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Will I see one in 2017?

Will I see one in 2017?

Over here in Cheshire I found myself pondering the thought, will I see a Model 3 in RHD on the road in 2017? I'm pretty high up the list booking in my order on the 1st day but

davidvbennett | 27 October, 2016

by no means 1st !!

dd.micsol | 27 October, 2016

Cheshire???? what country and/or state? Since you said over here I'm assuming not US. Late 2018 more likely.

cars | 27 October, 2016

He means in England (the original Cheshire) hence RHD. I'd say 2018 is likely as well, although not necessarily late 2018 if he ordered that early. I do not share the opinion of some on here that Tesla will start delivered new LHD orders after existing 'early bird' RHD ones.

cars | 27 October, 2016

Sorry, don't share the opinion that existing RHD 'early bird' reservations will be delivered AFTER new (yet to be placed) LHD reservations. :)

leskchan | 27 October, 2016

Let do a quick check. Go to your My_Tesla->Model_3_Reservation. Do you see

"delivery will begin in late 2017" or something else.

bj | 27 October, 2016

@leskchan - apparently no-one outside of USA sees that text.

I'm with cars (or perhaps cars is echoing me). I see no reason why Tesla would make over 400k+ Model 3s without making RHD ones. It makes little sense to have a single production cycle that big. And never forget Model 3 is designed for build simplicity, including minimum of mirror image components for RHD.

My prediction for first RHD cars on the road is 2Q 2018.

leskchan | 27 October, 2016

@bj

I agreed. So you will see, hopefully soon, "Delivery will begin 2Q 2018", for RHD.

Red Sage ca us | 27 October, 2016

You may see one. It may not be yours...

EaglesPDX | 27 October, 2016

Late 2018 if that depending on how highly optioned you go with the T3, You are facing two strikes, overseas and right hand drive and in the right hand drive category you have issue of level of options with more options being delivered sooner.

China apparently was a source of a lot of orders so they would get theirs before the UK and other right hand drivers.

leskchan | 27 October, 2016

China is LHD.

EaglesPDX | 27 October, 2016

@leskan "China is LHD".

Correct so China gets theirs before UK or other right hand drive countries per the stated Tesla policy.

bj | 27 October, 2016

@EaglesPDX - clearly you haven't read my posts in other threads explaining why making your M3 "highly loaded" will make virtually no difference to when the first batch of RHD cars are delivered to the various owners. My estimate is 2 months between the first and last deliveries in the first RHD batch - almost insignificant.

EaglesPDX | 28 October, 2016

@bj "clearly you haven't read my posts in other threads explaining why making your M3 "highly loaded" will make virtually no difference to when the first batch of RHD cars are delivered to the various owners. "

Clearly you have not read Tesla's statements contradicting your views and noting highly optioned cars first.

Haggy | 28 October, 2016

You probably will see one in 2017. I'll post a video. As far as getting one, nobody here can speak for Tesla but I personally doubt it. There's a tremendous backlog. They will likely want to try to get up to speed on production and at least get a feel for how fast they can make the cars. At that point, it will be easier to plan logistics for shipping cars. Initially, local delivery will work best. Once they do that, it will get to the point where all delivery specialists in the region would be overwhelmed unless Tesla started sending cars to other regions. They should be able to work things out region by region as fast as they can, but it will take time to train all their mechanics and delivery specialists. Once there are enough cars being made to keep the people in delivery centers and service centers working at capacity, assuming they are able to make cars even faster, it would make sense for them to send cars to other regions. I have no idea how RHD will fit into this, and also this is a worst case scenario. They could get people trained in various regions much faster than production catches up, in which case they could send things to as many regions as possible to allow staff in each region to have a cushion. If I worked in a service center, I'd hate to see thousands of deliveries in my area and none anywhere else, and would much prefer to see 20 cars sent to 50 different areas instead, giving me time to get up to speed.

I don't think it will take Tesla as long as some people feel, and can't see them going through regional queues in order before they start other regions. Since they promised priority for current owners, I would think that by the time they have 7% of cars done, they will have hit most or all markets in the US. But international ones are a different story.

On the positive side, the longer it takes, the more likely Tesla will incorporate improvements.

bj | 28 October, 2016

@EaglesPDX - oh dear, you do seem to be deliberately obtuse sometimes. The key words in my post are "virtually no difference". In the first RHD production cycle, even if Tesla produce highly optioned cars first, I estimate they will be delivered only about 2 months ahead of the zero optioned RHD cars. In my book, that is virtually no difference when RHD markets will have been waiting 2 years since the first reveal.

And if Tesla batch RHD production by continent optioning might make no difference at all, e.g. Tesla could make all 7,000 Model 3's currently reserved in Australia in about 10 days and ship them all at once. In that situation, optioning makes zero difference. You don't seem to understand that at all.

The main thing I did to minimise the wait before delivery was make a Model 3 reservation in-store 30 hours before the car was revealed. That will make a big difference to delivery time (assuming that any reservation made now pushes you into the second or third RHD production cycle rather than the first).

So in RHD markets, once your fate is sealed as to which production cycle you are in, trying to game optioning to improve your delivery date will be largely pointless.

EaglesPDX | 28 October, 2016

@bj " The key words in my post are "virtually no difference"."

But the reality as every car expert, consumer group, auto media reporter and physics professor will tell you is that RWD is the least reliable drive system for winter weather, FWD is better and AWD is best.

Tesla and Tesla drivers have spoken this as well, Tesla introducing AWD and Tesla drivers embracing it and abandoning the RWD Teslas.

The RWD Teslas are mainly marketing tools now, to show a low priced car that no one will buy.

Even the "budget" $35K T3 will see few if any RWD orders due to the functionality issues of RWD and Tesla's stated marketing plan of shipping highly optioned vehicles first.

Even for those who never see winter weather or never drive into the mountains, the resale value issue of ordering a RWD car will push them to order the AWD. Unlike AutoPilot, Battery Range and Autonomous driving, AWD has to be added when built. Tesla is not building it in and then disabling it as with the other options.

akgolf | 28 October, 2016

I guess if you keep saying it's so it must be.

How could current owners on this forum know more than someone who's never driven a RWD Model S in the snow. I guess we'll just have to take your word as gospel.

KP in NPT | 28 October, 2016

LOL he's so ridiculous. He had a guy from FINLAND with a MS tell him otherwise and he still keeps spouting the same old crap.

RWD Teslas ARE NOT THE SAME AS ICE CARS, Eagles. Get your head out of your posterior.

bj | 28 October, 2016

@EaglesPDX - AH HAH! No wonder your responses are so bizarre. it is now clear that you actually don't properly read any of the posts that you reply to. You skim instead, jump to conclusions, and respond to what you imagine the person wrote, not what they actually wrote.

I am talking about Right Hand Drive cars (RHD) and you fly off the handle on something totally unrelated. Good one.

Haggy | 29 October, 2016

" even if Tesla produce highly optioned cars first, I estimate they will be delivered only about 2 months ahead of the zero optioned RHD cars."

From my reservation page:
"Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. Deliveries will begin in late 2017. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation."

Since people will be invited to configure based on reservation date, it would be hard for Tesla to prioritize based on options. I understand it was a hypothetical statement, but it's a very unlikely one.

"The RWD Teslas are mainly marketing tools now, to show a low priced car that no one will buy."

I got mine before AWD was an option but in retrospect was glad I didn't get AWD because I have a much larger frunk. Not everybody lives where there's snow. These days, it wouldn't be an issue for the Model S since the frunk is the same size with AWD. With the Model 3, I have no idea.

EaglesPDX | 29 October, 2016

@Haggy "Since people will be invited to configure based on reservation date, it would be hard for Tesla to prioritize based on options."

Since they stated highly optioned would be a deliver priority, Tesla would need to have the configuration date much earlier. They could also tell you that your deliver moved back if you order few options and give you an opportunity to order more to keep your date.

This will likely apply to the options Tesla has spent money to build in, range, Autopilot and Autonomous. If you order them Tesla recoups its built in costs. Options like AWD, air suspension, towing etc. and not built in so Tesla has no sunk cost in them.

KP in NPT | 29 October, 2016

Eagles you have no idea exactly what Tesla will do - the "highly optioned first" statement was well before the close to half a million reservations they have. They may very well revise their strategy - or they may not. No one knows, including you.

akgolf | 29 October, 2016

Eagles is also a physic. How dare you question his facts based on whatever the hell he wants.

bgbythsea | 29 October, 2016

I think the only people who will drive M3's in 2017 will be the employees of SpaceX and Tesla. US west coast, Q1 & Q2 '18, east coast Q3 & Q4. Then other LHD markets. Sorry, David in Cheshire, my guess is it will be early(ish) 2019 (at best) before you see your M3. I suggest a 2 or 3 year lease on a MS to tide you over, or buy a CPO and sell it later. Disclaimer: this is total speculation.

ercolano | 29 October, 2016

Living in New Zealand I can only imagine we will be at the bottom of the pecking order as far as deliveries go.If you want to buy a Tesla today you buy it in Australia thats an ocean and thousands of miles away .... if you need your car serviced in NZ it has to be be shipped back to Australia! Part of me is envies the rest of the world getting the 3 sooner than me but because I have no choice I'm hoping all the bugs will ironed out adding up to a sweet ride .... in lets say late 2018

EaglesPDX | 30 October, 2016

@ercolano "If you need your car serviced in NZ it has to be shipped back to Australia"

The NZ Tesla owners could band together and fly the guy to GZ or send a Kiwi to Fremont for training. Parts from LA in 24 hours. Kiwi's seem pretty clever, even got the AC away from us a couple times, should be a way to avoid shipping the cars out. How many Tesla's are in NZ? Must be an exclusive group.

Efontana | 30 October, 2016

Tesla might consider changing the order of the first deliveries. Don't deliver anything in the US until the line is running at full speed. Momentum matters. A running start will alway get you better results.

minervo.florida | 30 October, 2016

Late 2018.

Red Sage ca us | 30 October, 2016

Efontana: I believe Tesla will achieve the 'running start' by doing exactly what they said they would. Aim for 100,000 to 200,000 Deliveries in 2017. Start with Deliveries to employees. Then nearby Deliveries in California. Then Southwestern and Northwestern States. Move on to Midwest and Southern States while ramping up for Sales in Canada and Mexico. Try to reach Northeastern States about the same time Deliveries begin in Eastern Canadian provinces. Even if they only manage 25% of the stated goal during 2017 that would be 25,000 to 50,000 Deliveries that year. That many Deliveries in the final quarter of 2017 will amount to awesome throughput. More than the Model S managed in all of 2013 in only three months -- minimum. And probably more than the BOLT during all of 2017.

SamO | 30 October, 2016

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think the way to think of the customers is really that the Model 3, being a sedan, is about 20% lighter than – and actually quite a bit less complex to manufacturer, than the Model S. Model S was really the first car we ever made ourselves. So, it was – we were designing to make it work, as opposed to designing it from ease of manufacturing, whereas the Model 3 is really designed for ease of manufacturing.

And then we expect through economies of scale and just general design improvements to get another 30% improvement. So that's where the 50% improvement comes relative to the Model S. So, it's a sort of 35K versus 70K of Model 3 versus Model S is the way to think about the difference.

And our default plan as we've done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car. Because obviously, we've got to pay back the investment of all the tooling and everything, so that sort of makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first. So, that's what we did with the Model S and also again with the Model X.

EaglesPDX | 30 October, 2016

@efontana "Tesla might consider changing the order of the first deliveries. Don't deliver anything in the US until the line is running at full speed. Momentum matters. A running start will alway get you better results."

Tesla has hinted they will do something like that to preserve the $7,500 tax credit for as many 2018 Tesla buyers as possible. They are under pressure to ship to employees in 2017 but could then hold back shipping while producing cars to order. That would mean those getting cars in first six months of 2018 got the full $7,500 and those 3rd quarter got $4,500 and $2,500 for those in 4th quarter.

This also ties in with selling more highly optioned cars first to maintain the 24% gross profit ratio on the T3. People would have to commit well in advance of delivery which gives Tesla time to prioritize orders based on options ordered. It also helps those ordering the maxed out cars with assurance that they'll get the $7,500 tax credit to cover the $60K price.

dsvick | 31 October, 2016

@Eagles - "That would mean those getting cars in first six months of 2018 got the full $7,500 and those 3rd quarter got $4,500 and $2,500 for those in 4th quarter."

The phase out is 50% for two quarters then 25% for two quarters. So, if the 100% lasted until the end of June 2018, the next 6 months would be $3750, then the 6 months after that would be $1875.

SamO | 31 October, 2016

0 fer 1000 for dipshit McGee.

Please stop feeding the trolls.

Haggy | 31 October, 2016

Tesla did say in the past that they would make more highly optioned vehicles first, but by the time the Model 3 was available for reservation, they said the opposite. It says in writing that they will go in order of when people reserved. Even when I got my Model S, Tesla had a policy of giving priority to highly optioned cars, but that didn't mean making nothing but highly optioned cars until orders ran out. It means that a P would have been available perhaps a month earlier.

This time around, Musk admitted that selling nothing but highly optioned cars first was a mistake. Musk was trying to stress that the Model X was $5000 more than the Model S, but the press kept calling it a $135,000 car. Musk told the world that he would make a $35,000 car and can't afford to have the press say that it doesn't exist. It also won't be efficient at this point to do highly optioned ones first. Tesla is beyond the point of putting enough cars on a truck to fill it up before having it head over to a region, dropping cars off along the way. If Tesla can fill up a train to a major city and do so by making a variety of cars, it will be more efficient than sending out a few dozen highly optioned ones at a time. Tesla needs to work on throughput, and sometimes highly optioned cars take longer to build. If Tesla is aiming for 10,000 cars/week, their priorities will be different.