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Grohmann acquisition

Grohmann acquisition

The acquisition of Grohmann in Germany has been reported being done for expansion of the Fremont factory.
I believe it was more driven by the need to have secure machine production capability for new Tesla factories to be announced this year.
I previously wrote, giving my reasoning, how Tesla will soon be at the stage that they will be expanding as quickly as possible, and will not be constrained by finance, uncertainty of demand or uncertainty of production systems. I believe that time is now, and that Tesla will make that very clear this year. I expect that Tesla has over 1 million Model 3 reservations and is confident that their Model 3 production will be on track. The battery manufacturing capacity in Nevada will soon be inadequate due to the upcoming demand for Power Packs and Model 3. The recent statement that Elon believes Tesla will be worth 10 times it's current value in the next 5 to 10 years implies that investors need to be confident that Tesla will be much bigger and more secure than they currently believe.
We will be blown away by the expansion plans and timetable that Tesla lays out.
I therefore believe that Tesla will become the highest valued company in the world over the next few years.

georgehawley.fl.us | 24 April, 2017

Tesla welcomes believers. Hope you are right. Did you get your X yet? VIN?

georgehawley.fl.us | 24 April, 2017

Forget the VIN.

Silver2K | 24 April, 2017

I doubt they have 1 million M3 reservations, because they converted many to MS60 models and continue to do so with the price drop on the MS75.

I would say they have about 300k-400k reservation with a 10% cancellation.

KP in NPT | 24 April, 2017

The last numbers reported said there was $690M in deposits held - assuming most are Model 3, I'd estimate closer to 600K reservations. That is from October however, and while the number certainly may have grown since then, I would guess it's still less than 1 million.

That isn't to say that number won't shoot up once the final car is revealed.

https://electrek.co/2016/10/27/tesla-model-3-700-million-customer-deposits/

Civicrick | 24 April, 2017

Hmm. Would you think there would be that great of an increase after the reveal? Its still a rather pricey car and gas is pretty cheap. Guess I should reserve the second one soon tho to be safe

KP in NPT | 24 April, 2017

I have no idea how much it will increase - but I do expect there will be some increase. That is based on the assumption people are waiting to see the final car (even though to me that doesn't make sense, since it has always been fully refundable.)

Back when the initial numbers were coming in, Elon said he didn't expect the # of reservations to be that high until the second reveal, alluding to there being some "wow" factor that would drive reservations higher. Some believe that wow factor was the announcement of FSD, others believe it has to do with the interior. I guess we'll soon find out.

Mike83 | 24 April, 2017

John has some good points.
Just a personal story. Several times I Supercharge some people come up to talk about the car. The usual question is how far, how long and how much. I tell them and show them the car and its range and how one can charge at home. Then I tell them about the M3 and they get very excited. 1 million is very possible IMHO.
The FUD is ongoing about Tesla with many approaches to help the shorters and ICE people, but I also believe Tesla is beyond the BS now.

Bighorn | 24 April, 2017

Numbers don't lie--there's not a billion dollars in deposits.

Mike83 | 24 April, 2017

Unless your the CFO how could you possibly know what the numbers are?

KP in NPT | 24 April, 2017

As of Q4, deposits was 663M (page 8 of quarterly report) imbedded in article:

https://electrek.co/2017/02/22/tesla-tsla-q4-financial-results/

Q1 2017 report will be on May 3.

Bighorn | 24 April, 2017

What KP said--it's a public company that as a shareholder I follow.

Mike83 | 24 April, 2017

Exactly

Bighorn | 24 April, 2017

@Mike
Are you suggesting a 50%+ increase in orders QOQ? In that case, you got me!

johndoeeyed | 24 April, 2017

@Mike83
I have a similar experience. I have come across at least 5 people I did not know who have reserved a Model 3, plus 2 reservations from people I do know. The next quarterly report will tell. I believe we have gone from the doubting 'experts' last year saying that Tesla would not the production timetable, to now there is no longer that doubt. The general public will have gained confidence in the last 3 months, as supported by the sharemarket price increase.

brando | 24 April, 2017

Mike83 - researching the web tips (hope this helps some on the Forum)

Always best to check original documents when ever you can, no matter the topic, why rely on others opinions?
Only when that person/organization has earned your respect, right?

For Tesla, here are the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission]
http://ir.tesla.com/sec.cfm?view=all

If you call up report html version you can then use Ctrl-f and get a search window in the upper right corner of the document. Then put in your key word to find the actual numbers or policies or what ever.

Another tip when using google is to restrict your search to just one website.

SearchTermOrWordYouAreLookingFor site:DomainName.xxx you want searched
Example

Annual Report site:tesla.com

Just trying to read thru these reports you will learn. And you'll start to recognize more easily when "writers" are talking BS and can suspect the real motivation behind their opinions (I mean media writers and especially stock market opinions) Then of course wikipedia to learn margins vs profits for example.

I hope this helps those that don't know these techniques.

johndoeeyed | 24 April, 2017

@brando
The last available quarterly report does not include Jan-Mar 2017.
Refer to my previous post.

johndoeeyed | 24 April, 2017

@brando
PS:
I said "I expect", which is not BS since it is what I expect.
I also used "I believe" in other places.
These are deliberately making statements as opinion, not fact.

KP in NPT | 3 May, 2017

Q1 reported customer deposits - $616,398

Still not a million reservations.

Bighorn | 3 May, 2017

Thanks KP for destroying that crazy prediction.

Silver2K | 3 May, 2017

I lost track of this thread after I posted and did not see the deposit reports KP linked. Obviously the deposit proved me wrong by at least 100-150k pre-orders, but why hasn't Elon boasted about these number?

the higher numbers for the model 3 reservations do make a lot of sense, even if you have $5k deposits for 20k MX/MS orders.

brando | 6 May, 2017

2017 Q1 published May 3rd. by Tesla.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3687910351x0x940721/8...

To clarify
"Writers" BS I meant media (magazines, newspapers, TV reporters etc.) I did not mean "posters" on this forum.

$1,000 x 1,000,000 = $1,000,000,000 or 1 billion dollars.

From above Tesla 2017 Q1
Customer Deposits $616,398,000
[financial documents are noted to be in thousands, usual accounting practice to save space]
Not all deposits are for Model 3 as all Tesla reservation or orders require a deposit.
But IF they were that would be 616,398 customer deposits.

I suspect KP simply made a typo.

brando | 7 May, 2017

PS - Above shareholder letter well worth reading.
And again I encourage trying to understand financial statements. With some effort and time you'll get better at it.
Sorry for my mistake thinking SEC required financials every quarter, and this may well have wasted your time looking for this information. As noted these financials are not audited (wikipedia can probably explain).

Historical note that ENRON had many audits which in the end were fraudulent and lead to the demise of one of the "Big 8" accounting firms Arthur Andersen I believe. Google can provide accurate details. Which of course reminds me of my oft mentioned Mark Twain comment.

If you don't read newspapers you are ill-informed.
If you do read newspapers you are misinformed.

Thankfully the internet fixed all that.
just kidding.