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Let's be realistic I'm glad Model 3 will be rolling out but..

Let's be realistic I'm glad Model 3 will be rolling out but..

I'm extremely happy the Model 3 ahead of schedule and Elon is full steam ahead. 30 cars will be built by July 28 ! Then the next 4 months around 20,000 cars would be built. I'm being realistic I ordered mine online one hour before reveal so I'm guessing I'm between 100,000 - 175,000 most of us will not have the car this year maybe mid next year the latest. There is no other car I want except the Model S but how many people who need cars will cancel ?

AJPHL | 4 July, 2017

Some of those are going to be holding out for AWD though--if you're not, you'll get yours before at least some of those folks.

Jcastillo18 | 4 July, 2017

True I can wait just stating that not to expect it this year but I can't wait to see the final product

gavinmcc | 4 July, 2017

I ordered around the same time...was hoping for end of this year, but probably spring of '18 is more likely

Good chance I'll get a 3, but while waiting I will check out the Bolt in August, and the Leaf 2 in September...maybe the BMW 3 too (though I expect that to be 50k or more)...

It is nice that suddenly there are choices appearing that will go 200 miles for under 40k (give or take)...always told myself I would buy an electric car when it could go 200 miles and didn't have a monthly payment similar to my mortgage :)

G

Azred50 | 4 July, 2017

I stood in line on the 31st, am an S owner and am a resident of "near the West Coast" Arizona. All three factors will matter but the latter two probably most of all. You didn't mention where you live or if you are an owner. I don't think you can even make a good guess without those two factors.

carlk | 4 July, 2017

I would say your chance could be greatly increased if you're willing to settle for any available optons instead of waiting for your perfect configuration like many likely would.

Jcastillo18 | 4 July, 2017

I live in Texas and am not a Tesla owner but willing to wait !

gavinmcc | 4 July, 2017

I live in New Mexico...not a Tesla owner...just after I placed my 3 order, the board on stage said 115,000. I assume my number is somewhere around there...

Sounds far down, but I figure 30% are foreign orders, 10% drop out, 30% wait to order for performance or other options...so suddenly I could be number 25-35 thousand...which I figure is around December build time

If so I might go basic config...depends on price and delay of going AWD when my time comes...

Wants: awd, glass roof, tow bar.
Needs: an electric car...basic would be fine if it gets me bumped up. Especially if it bumps me to 2017 vs 2018.

Keeping my options open...love Tesla, but I might go Bolt, Leaf 2...prefer a hatch/liftback...and no service centers in all of New Mexico. Possibly for years to come as the law is very clear...can be the manufacturer and do sales or service. Still I prefer a 3.

Time will tell. Been a daily motorcycle rider for many years (the last six years have been exclusively electric motorcycle), but turning 56 and told myself last winter was my last winter of riding (Albuquerque does get winter...my house is at the same elevation as Denver...though a bit south and less snowy).

G

gavinmcc | 4 July, 2017

gah! "Can't" be a manufacturer and also do sales or service.

Hard to do long posts on my phone...hard to do short post because of my scattered head...so....

G

Jcastillo18 | 4 July, 2017

@gavimmcc good point I was the basic probably a bigger battery but not a deal breaker. In Texas AWD is not relevant or the winter package ! Thanks you made my day

gavinmcc | 4 July, 2017

Thx :)

Yeah, I would prefer AWD but not a deal breaker. We get snow, but it usually melts by noon (though about ten years ago we got 20 inches over two days...that was cray). AWD would be nice, a bit faster? A bit more range? But mostly for winter rides to Santa Fe...they are at 7000 feet and it always seems to snow when I'm there.

Still I learned to drive in Pennsylvania snow as a kid, so I'm pretty good at it and would be fine with RWD.

G

vicmgvaz | 4 July, 2017

I am in Europe, soon I will have to wait many months, more than any American ...So take it easy .For me the base version is enough. Anyone who needs AWD will have to wait, and maybe they'll come down on the delivery list. So think hard if you do not prefer a Model S.

stevenmaifert | 5 July, 2017

Cancellations will come for a variety of reasons, but my hunch is most will come from folks who had the unreasonable expectation that the M3 would have a performance profile and feature set similar to the MS for half the price.

dsvick | 5 July, 2017

"...how many people who need cars will cancel ?"

You can't possibly answer that question without being really vague. It will depends on how badly they "need" one and if they're willing to just get a temporary car to hold them over until they can get their 3.

So the answer will be "some".

tedirelan | 7 July, 2017

Wife and I are in an interesting position on this. We are day One reservation holders (about 16th and 17th) in line at Houston. We only need the most basic model. Safety is priority. However, we are saving as much as we can for a down payment in order to pay less interest and also to build our credit as much as possible (not to mention, we just bought a new TV, so that has to show time has passed for us to get financed for our Model 3). Point is that we won't be ordering until a while after dual motor is an available option. I wonder how long Tesla will just let us set on our $1,000 deposit?

tedirelan | 7 July, 2017

TV was supposed to be RV.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 7 July, 2017

tedirelan: OK. That makes a lot more sense now. :-)

mntlvr23 | 7 July, 2017

must have been a hell of a TV

ReD eXiLe ms us | 7 July, 2017

mntlvr23: Yes. It was the size of an RV.

mntlvr23 | 7 July, 2017

@ReD - OK, That makes a lot more sense now :-)

ReD eXiLe ms us | 7 July, 2017

:-)

tedirelan | 7 July, 2017

Ya, a $38,000Television. You should see the definition on it though. Like, Avatar is crazy good. Lol.

Ivan_c213 | 7 July, 2017

I will cancel my reservation if I like the model y more than the model 3.

eeb9 | 8 July, 2017

It's going to be a while, I think, before the Model Y is available for reservation, let alone purchase.

I'm getting a 3, while having high hopes for the Y. H3ll, I may even go for the Pickup if it has a shell option and good aerodynamics. But I'm still getting the 3 first, to cover while the others go through their development and gestation