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"West Coast First" So does that mean ???

"West Coast First" So does that mean ???

Hi Guys,

Here is the question. California gets their cars first, after employees. After Calif., I would assume that Oregon would be next. THEN..........Washington State. How far out would they let you configure your car ? Would all the orders for Calif. have to be almost done, before Oregon can configure ??? And then the same for Washington ? What are the logistics involved here ?

Bob in Seattle

AZ Travelers | 29 September, 2017

Don't forget about Arizona and Nevada, which also directly border California. :)

noleaf4me | 30 September, 2017

May be better to say "distance" from Fremont....

sbeggs | 30 September, 2017

Calicentric!

milesbb | 30 September, 2017

At some point I believe the model 3 production will get diverted to Canada, ahead of other states. Tesla will want to avoids going over the 200,000 US delivery number until the start of a new quarter, and after they have ramped up to near full production rate. Maximizing production and US sales in the quarter they hit 200,000 and the following quarter will allow Tesla to demand premium priced option$ on their US sales. When production gets going, a hand full of local dealers will not be able to process the cars being manufactured. The cars will be distributed further a field before all California reservations have been fulfilled.

Bob, you may see Model 3's in Vancouver BC before they show up in Seattle.

leadfoot_ed | 30 September, 2017

I plan on doing a factory pickup with mine, even though I live in Southern California. I emailed Tesla about this, and they gave me a vague response saying to discuss it with my assigned rep when I get the invitation to configure. Sounds like it's still going to based on residence ZIP.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 1 October, 2017

leadfooted_ed: I believe that going forward 'factory pickup' will be off-site at a Tesla Delivery Center in Fremont, not at the assembly plant proper. Parking is apparently at a premium there too, with all the construction and expansion going on, so maybe there will be a tram to ferry you to a factory tour if you schedule one.

jordanrichard | 1 October, 2017

"West coast" is not just CA.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 1 October, 2017

jordanrichard: I'm a big fan of Calicentria. ;-) The initial post did mention Oregon and Washington, while subsequent posts noted Arizona and Nevada. I would even include Hawaii, Alaska, and British Columbia among sites for 'West Coast' consideration.

Haggy | 3 October, 2017

All of California (if you mean filling all California orders) will not need to be done before Tesla branches out. That would be impossible. Tesla plans to ramp up to 5000 cars per week for worldwide sales. They will need to have enough staff worldwide to be able to divide production among them. If they tried to have California staff move 5000 cars per week, they'd have to have a massive hiring effort followed by a massive firing effort.

Once production is under control and it becomes clear that California staff would be overwhelmed if Tesla doesn't send cars elsewhere, it would already be too late to start the process and heads would roll if they weren't already sending cars to other places. Individual stores need to ramp up too, and it would be better for California stores to operate below capacity while they hire more people as other regions get cars.

hsadler | 3 October, 2017

It means you now have to move to California.

(Don't forget - Granny goes in the rocker mounted on top.)

PhillyGal | 3 October, 2017

Haggy beat me to it. While you'll see cars on the West Coast first when production numbers are low, once they ramp there just won't be capacity to deliver that many cars to West Coast delivery centers and ignore other locations.

dd.micsol | 3 October, 2017

It means if you're on the East Coast 2 month delay. At least it happened to my neighbor. Yes it's true no matter how many people attack me. So if you get delayed don't expect me to feel sorry for you after pounding at me all day.
DS especially you.

Frank99 | 3 October, 2017

Haggy is right.

I expect that, by this point in time, the expectation of "west coast first" should probably read "west coast will start a few weeks before the Mountain states, which will start a few weeks before the midwest, which will start a few weeks before the east coast". I expect that, within a month or two of non-employee deliveries starting, deliveries will be occurring to the entire US. Remember that, not only do they have to ramp up production, they also have to ramp up delivery centers - hire and train the delivery specialists. The best way to do that might be to start by shipping sufficient cars for one-a-day deliveries for a week, then maybe three-a-day deliveries for a week or two, then maybe 10-a-day deliveries. Not only does the Production ramp look like an s-curve, so does the delivery ramp.

fritter63 | 3 October, 2017

just to add a data point, I'm 3 hours south of Fremont, non-owner, and yet I see non-owners in other states reporting delivery dates a few months ahead of mine (jan - mar '18).

So much for proximity to Fremont....

Frank99 | 3 October, 2017

Jan-Mar sounds like the "standard battery" delivery date for non-owner line-waiters. Nov-Jan is the equivalent "First Production" date.

When did you reserve?

drbob | 4 October, 2017

I'm on the east coast, current owner and still have Oct-Dec delivery date - fingers crossed!

noleaf4me | 4 October, 2017

@drbob - I'd hope for December....

diegoPasadena | 4 October, 2017

I believe that all this will shift in unpredictable ways. Right now, my reservation is still set at the default "First Production" estimate. We haven't decided on our final configuration yet, not will we until we are invited to do so. We might very well opt for the Standard Battery option, which will move up someone else, and if thousands of reservation holders do that it will jumble up the whole picture. I'm guessing Tesla is calculating its projection based on the current status people have selected on their estimate window, but there might be too many moving parts for even the two-month window to sync with their S curve.

I'll get the car when I get it. No use fretting over it.

That being said: I WANT IT TOMORROW!

Carl Thompson | 4 October, 2017

The production issues they've had (particularly those that required swapping out parts on already made cars) will likely reinforce Tesla's desire to sell to people close to the factory first. So while I _was_ leaning toward it not making a huge difference previously now I think people in other parts of the country may have a longer wait than expected (vs. west coast).

fritter63 | 4 October, 2017

@Frank99

"Jan-Mar sounds like the "standard battery" delivery date for non-owner line-waiters. Nov-Jan is the equivalent "First Production" date.

When did you reserve?"

April 1st, 2016. We were just under 200K reservations when I did.

It shows Jan-Mar for long range, or Apr-Jun for short range. Maybe they just had a bug and haven't adjusted mine?

billy. | 5 October, 2017

I placed my reservation the night of the unveiling from CA, the better half (northern). Do you guesstimate I'll get the base model 3 (no upgrades:( before the other states, or are they gonna deliver upgraded 3's to all of west coast first, then deliver base 3's to CA?

Carl Thompson | 5 October, 2017

@wastone1

I don't think any of us has enough information to even "guesstimate" at this point. It would be a flat out guess only. But my guess is since we know they are making the upgraded cars first and because they are working out production like issues they won't want to compound to their struggles by adding more production line options too soon. So I think it's possible that non-upgraded cars could wait a bit longer while they work things out.

Or I could be completely wrong.

Frank99 | 5 October, 2017

fritter63 -
Interesting. I would have thought that as a April 1 reservations, you would have gotten the same estimated delivery as March 31 reservations. Sounds like whatever the priority algorithm is that Tesla is using, reservation date has more impact than location.

I reserved in the morning on March 31 here in Phoenix, and have Nov-Jan delivery estimates for first production, and Jan-Mar for standard.

I think we'll have to wait a few months to see how this all works out.

dsvick | 5 October, 2017

@wastone1 As production ramps up they'll have to begin shifting deliveries East so that they don't inundate their West coast delivery centers. I suspect that location will not matter much by the time they are producing non PUP, standard battery cars for people that did not wait in line. Over the next couple of months we should see first CA non employees get their first production cars and watch that move East. So, no, they won't deliver all of CA, or even the West coast, first before moving deliveries East.

As Carl mentioned though, this is all speculation and guesswork.

billy. | 5 October, 2017

Ok thanks guys, looks like I'm going to be waiting longer than I was guesstimating. I need to set my phone to elon time (no need to do the fall back coming up).

Frank99 | 5 October, 2017

Sucks that being 24 hours late costs you two months...