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Delivery dates not matching up

Delivery dates not matching up

I put down my $1,000 on Oct 1st.
My delivery date says "Late 2018"

I'm a bit confused because Elon stated that their target is 5,000 cars each week.
5000 x 52 (weeks)=260,000 cars

I believe the reservations are in the ballpark of 400,000 if I'm not mistaken.

That is assuming that when 2018 hits they will be making 5,000 cars a week which will not be the case.

Any ideas as to why I don't have a more realistic date of around Mid-Late 2019?

blunt2544 | 18 November, 2017

October 1st, 2017 by the way. I will likely be at the end of the assumed 400,000 reservation holders queue

noleaf4me | 18 November, 2017

5000 / week is the target for end of Q1 - 2018. The ultimate goal in 2018 is to be up to 10,000 / week.

blunt2544 | 18 November, 2017

@noleaf4me Ahhh I suppose that makes sense I think late 2018 is still a little too optimistic. I suppose I just need to hurry up and wait.

tripplett | 18 November, 2017

I thought I also read somewhere the possibility of starting a second model 3 line mid 2018?

LA-Fohlen | 18 November, 2017

The 400,000 or so are world wide but Tesla will concentrate on the US market first. Even Canada doesn't start before 2nd half of 2018 and I assume that oversees comes after that and wrong side driving markets come at the end.

On the other hand it is just an estimate to begin with. This information might change.

ReD eXiLe ms us | 18 November, 2017

Wow. Can someone find a Fifth Grader to explain this to the OP?

Shock | 18 November, 2017

Several things going on here:
1) Tesla plans on ramping up above 5,000/week
2) Some reservations will cancel
3) Tesla's estimates are historically terrible and this one is, too. I don't believe for a minute they will hit 5k/week by end of Q1 anymore than I did when they said they would by end of Q4/17.
4)....other...

blunt2544 | 18 November, 2017

@ReD eXiLe ms us I'm not understanding the reason for what appears to be a condescending comment that offers 0 help to my question. I am a late reservation holder that had a question but I should have known keyboard warriors have infiltrated even this forum, smh

edhchoe | 19 November, 2017

US deliveries are not all of 500000 reservations.
US deliveries are first priority.

blunt2544 | 19 November, 2017

Yeah that does make sense, I did not think of that prior to @LA-Fohlen mentioning that as well. I do wish we had some solid numbers on the current numbers and what locations they are coming from as well as how many have opted for a certain option. I am just so excited for this car and wish I threw down my $1,000 a long time ago. Live and learn

tom8959 | 19 November, 2017

@blunt2544 I put my $1,000 down two days after you and very much know how you feel! I've always been a fan of Elon Musk and Tesla, but somehow I just wasn't tuned-in to everything going on with the Model 3 until late - and ended up with the 500,000th(-ish) place in line.

At this point, I can hardly wait, but wait I will. The Model 3 not only combines beauty, performance and practicality like nothing else before it, but is truly innovative and historically significant. For me, it's worth waiting for, and I'm glad to even have a place in line for such a car.

Regarding the "Late 2018" delivery estimation, I'm considering Elon's characteristic optimism when I read that. Tesla's manufacturing challenges here are as awesome as the car itself - maybe more so - and there will be set-backs and delays as they ramp up and fine tune the process. Eventually, with the possibility of adding second and third shifts on the line, or another line altogether, production numbers could get very high. Maybe, just maybe, late 2018 could happen for us... naaa!

Another thing for us late bloomers to consider is that Tesla will be a lot better at building Model 3's at 500,000 units then they will be at 5,000. A small consolation, I know, but something.

edhchoe | 19 November, 2017

I just hope tsla doesnt raise price on us mid production.

jan.stubbs | 20 November, 2017

This would not be an issue you could still cancel the order and not take delivery Im sure. No car no money

mos6507 | 20 November, 2017

"I just hope tsla doesnt raise price on us mid production."

We still don't know what the AWD price will be. Since that's what I want, it might be cause for concern. The double-whammy of inflated options and no more $7,500 discount is bad.

bodenalan | 20 November, 2017

Mine still says Nov - Jan, but with the holidays, and not a single Cali customer getting theirs yet, this estimate is totally bogus. I can't see them hitting March, let alone Jan at this rate.

acemandinga | 20 November, 2017

@blunt: I've been reading these forums for many months now, I rarely post. However I just got the Chrome extension another user made that lets me block users. There are several morons in my block list that have made reading these forums less hostile and more pleasurable. We're all in this together but for some reason certain people just can't help themselves but to be complete iceholes.

In case you're wondering here's the plugin: https chrome google com/webstore/detail/tesla-forum-enhancement-s/hkbifhpnajcifmkpgmbnhkfipjbkbfcl (replace the spaces with periods obviously)

Welcome to the forums!

andy.connor.e | 20 November, 2017

@mos

The $7500 will surely be gone by the time AWD is available. At least you can count on getting $3750.

edhchoe | 20 November, 2017

If tesla reaches 5000 per week rate by march, by june 7500 credit would be over and partial credit would end by nov.
So if awd is ordered by nov 3750 credit may still be available..

dsvick | 20 November, 2017

"If tesla reaches 5000 per week rate by march, by june 7500 credit would be over and partial credit would end by nov."

Not quite. The full credit phases out after the quarter following the quarter they hit 200,000. so if they hit 200,000 in Q1 2018, the full credit would be in place through the end of June 2018, then the half credit would be in place through the end of the year, and the quarter credit through the middle of 2019.