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I'm excited, but Model 3 reservations will be <10K new buyers

I'm excited, but Model 3 reservations will be <10K new buyers

Almost certainly roughly 1/3 of Model S owners will be reserving a Model 3. So maybe 30K reservations there.

But unless there is some real deal sealer, there are going to be VERY few new buyers reserving a Model 3 in the first rew weeks.

People are not ready. I'm 100% pro-Tesla. I'm also realistic. I hope I'm wrong. But look at these forums. It's 99% old-timers.

Bluesday Afternoon | March 23, 2016

@logicalthinker

Illogical thought!

Within a month there will be well over 50,000 reservations! I already know three people reserving and they are new to Tesla. By June 30, 2016 (end of quarter) there will be 70,000+ reservations. Maybe I'm drinking the Kool Aid but it tastes pretty sweet to me.

KevinR.co.us | March 23, 2016

@logical thinker
I agree the forums are long timers and new converts. But we are a very small fraction of the people out there with Tesla vehicles. I am thinking close to 100K by April 3rd.

The lines outside the store will be the media event that advertises the release and drives more reservations by the end of the weekend.

Time to refill my Kool Aid.......

Steven.Haver | March 23, 2016

Yes, this forum and TMC are just a a tiny sliver of the population interested in Tesla and the Model 3. I won't be surprised at all if they pull huge numbers after the first week. Like Kevin said, the word will spread quickly after the reveal event, especially if there are good images/videos/media coverage of people waiting in line on the 31st. Tesla has many levers they could pull to increase demand but I don't think they will need to do anything at all if the reveal goes smoothly.

Haggy | March 23, 2016

I spoke to two of my brothers-in-law many times over the past year about getting a Model S, and about the $1000 off promotion. They didn't budge. I didn't mention the Model 3 to them but they both asked me if I can reserve more than one so I can get priority. There are many people who would love to get a Model S but simply don't want to spend that much money on a car. They've been waiting for something like the Model 3 for years, are not "old timers" and are willing to reserve it sight unseen. They are almost as enthusiastic as owners, and I'm sure there are some who are more enthusiastic than owners but simply couldn't justify a Model S or perhaps couldn't get a loan. The two I mentioned could likely afford a Model S without a problem, but it's not something they'd spend that much money on, so a Model 3 seems like a no brainer.

PhillyGal | March 24, 2016

I also have to respectfully disagree. When I went to talk to my boss about needing off for the event - and how I intended to be off to wait in line anyway - his reply was "should I reserve one?"

Just like that. As casual as trying out a new lunch spot.

Also, my local store said he's easily gotten 100 customers a week for the past 4 weeks asking how to reserve. And that's just in the Philly burbs.

PeterPlt | March 24, 2016

+1 for PhiilyGal!

The pipeline will be primed with thousands of Tesla employees (at least 30%, would be my guess). Then at least 20% of current S/X owners/order holders. That gets us to 25,000 orders in the first few days NOT including the general public. Think of all those Leaf/Prius/etc. owners who would LOVE to be in an EV that is more practical and much more attractive than their current compromises. My guess: 100,000 more worldwide. So, my lottery WAG is at least 130,000 deposits in April.

And then the wait begins... again... Oh, my! I've discovered Tesla's secret sauce. They have transformed the anticipation of Christmas for little kids into the car buying phenomenon for adults (term used very loosely).

Hi_Tech | March 24, 2016

I'm going back and forth here....

On one side, I'm super excited and wish/hope for this to be a blow out event, etc... also, I think the media will be talking about nothing but this on the business channels and articles. There will be lots of photos and videos. Friday should make for an interesting day getting a lot of snip-its from all different angles.
Also, just look at how many members there on just TMC: over 34k.

On the other side, I doubt many people outside of the group that has been following Tesla and EVs are actually aware. Hope to be proven wrong.

I'm going with roughly 50k reservations within one week of the event.

georgehawley.fl.us | March 24, 2016

You folks are all pikers. There will be >100,000 reservations by the end of business on April 1. No foolin' :-))

Hi_Tech | March 24, 2016

I wonder if there will be a way to track the reservations, or if Tesla will provide that info (which I doubt).

georgehawley.fl.us | March 24, 2016

Tesla will have a press release with a positive spin or it will be revealed when they announce 1Q deliveries latest.

Get in line.

carlk | March 24, 2016

I go with 100,000 the first week when people heard >50,000 have been reserved the first day.

jordanrichard | March 24, 2016

I can't make a prediction, and I say this with my Kool-Aid glass set aside, but this will be huge. The Model 3 has been advertised since the beginning of Tesla's existence. Think of just about every news piece/review of the MS. The Model ≡ was mentioned. Though there are still people who have never heard of Tesla, I think that will change come next week, simply due to the media coverage. Tesla is the benchmark for EVs and there is real anticipation to see, compared to the Bolt, Tesla comes out with.

Also, many people turn their ears off if you will, when they heard how much the MS costs. However, once they hear about the price point of the Model ≡ and what it can do and looks like, they will sit up and pay attention.

Another thought I had related to the large numbers people are predicting, Due to the time it takes to ramp up to full production for anew model, that may be the true reason to let employees and existing owners get their cars first. We all know what to expect and by the time Tesla gets "our" orders filled, they will have everything worked out and be able to crank the cars out at pace that the general public is used to.

carlk | March 24, 2016

I was thinking the same thing too. Tesla is such a new technology there is a lot of learning curve on customer's part. I can see from the X delivery some first time Tesla owners seem to have a lot of issues while old hands like Roamer though everything is just fine. Not necessarily user errors but just learning curve and what to expect. This is a good reason, and smart move on Tesla's part, to have employees and current owners to get their hands on first batch of cars to separate real issues from user issues.

Chunky Jr. | March 24, 2016

If the model 3 looks great, and the specs are great (range and 0-60), I wouldn't be surprised if there were 50K reservations on the first day or two. The performance of the Model S is legendary at this point (check out the number of views of all the Model S launch videos on YouTube), and if Model 3 has a 0-60 time of under 5 seconds, it will be a hit.

If you go in google, and type Tesla, the number one recommendation is "Tesla Model 3".

carlk | March 24, 2016

You are right. I was googling for Model X delivery check list but soon as I typed Model the 3 came up. I did not even type Tesla. Must be millions of people searching for Model 3.

Rocky_H | March 24, 2016

@PeterPit, Quote: "Think of all those Leaf/Prius/etc. owners who would LOVE to be in an EV that is more practical and much more attractive than their current compromises. "

Yep. Here in my city, a couple of guys in the electric car vehicle group have been talking for the last couple of years how they will be hovering over the "reserve" button when it goes online. They were there watching the Supercharger getting built here almost every day. They are not on any of the Tesla forums, so they would not show up in @logicalthinker's careless^G^G^G^G^G casual assessment of interest. Their current vehicles are a Leaf and a Ford C-Max Energi plug-in.

Ankit Mishra | March 24, 2016

My guess - 100000 in 48 hours.

Tesla-David | March 24, 2016

@georgehawley.fl.us I agree, I believe the number of registrations will be >100,000 by the end of 1 April. Too many people have approached me with questions about the Model ≡, and a number have told me they were waiting to reserve the Model ≡. They would love to have a Model S, but the price was a detriment, but the Model ≡ is the sweet spot that mobilizes new EV enthusiasts.

PhillyGal | March 24, 2016

Who wants to start a thread that they will monitor and update (the original) with wagers on how many reservations will be made before April 2nd? We'll give the in-store day and on-line day equal weight as "first day" because for some, a store is not feasible. So it's really something like 36 hours.

Bighorn | March 24, 2016

This is the same LogicalThinker that chose a Volt over a Tesla:)

logicalthinker | March 24, 2016

yeah, I'm a hyper optimized life frugal type, and after a lot of agony didn't get a Model S, but i'm definitely planning on getting a Model 3.

I hope you guys are right, re: bazillions of reservations. Believe me, I hope it.
But not a lot of Americans have $1K to set aside. :( So I do think there will be a lot of movement on the reservation list, and also a lot of the reservations will be former EV owners (yes, good point about other EVs).

Really Tesla needs to begin to DELIVER like late 2016. THAT would be a win.

georgehawley.fl.us | March 24, 2016

Fraction of Americans able to part with $1,000 ? Over 30%. That's over 90million.

U.S. Auto sales in 2015: >17 million.

Average sales price >$34K

What was the question?

End of 2016? Do you mean 2017?

Keep working on that logic thing.:-))

SD Supercharger | March 24, 2016

OK-first week reservation numbers::
100K---INSANE
200K---LUDICROUS
300K---MAXIMUM PLAID

lvaneveld | March 24, 2016

I work in a small engineering department of 11 people. I heard last week two of are seriously considering a reservation. This is not quite the general public but regular salaried engineers, not managers or company owners.

I expect a lot of reservations from middle class engineers and other technically educated people. Somewhat slower rates from the general public. In California I think the response will be huge. How big in the first week remains to be seen.

I would guess between 20k and 70k.

Haggy | March 24, 2016

I asked a couple of people in Fremont what they expected. They said they were expecting a crowd and said they already knew of several people who plan to camp out overnight.

AlMc | March 24, 2016

OP: I have a big problem. I am going to order two model3 for immediate family at the store opening......But, I am told I can only order two. I was hoping to order a total of 7 for coworkers who can't make it at store opening.......Reason: someone has to work that day :)...They will just have to order online instead. :(

I have NO clue how many model3s will be ordered in the first hour, day, week. But I am confident it will exceed the number of Roadsters/ModelX and Ss that TM has produced to date soon (and not Tesla 'soon')

I do think a 'shocker' would be to have TM announce they will start production in 9 months.....

flight505 | March 24, 2016

Tesla will not allow any "transfers," meaning the person that put down a $1,000 deposit cannot sell out when the car is new - effectively selling the right to buy their order when the car shows up at the dealership.

People could sell their Model 3 after purchased, but then it would be used with no tax deduction.

In the BMW dealer system, many "buyers" ordered the new i8 last year and sold for a fast profit rather than accept delivery, meaning they didn't have to actually buy the car to make fast bucks. I'm not sure how this worked.

I think Tesla's policy of no transfers will take out opportunists looking for a quick buck.

In other words, people putting down $1,000 deposits will be end-users.

Once I see the car I'll be able to make a better educated guess on how many people put down a grand to hold a reservation.

jbunn | March 24, 2016

I also disagree. I'm an old timer here, and am reserving a 3, but I'm camping out with 3 additional reservations, for a total of 4.

Tstolz | March 25, 2016

I think Tesla had about 25,000 reservations for Model X .. with projected volume at 10x higher for model 3 ... that would suggest 250,000 reservations could happen ... maybe not in the first 2 days ... but maybe before production starts.

PhillyGal | March 25, 2016

Thursday night the other automakers are going to need the PeptoB on hand.

PhillyGal | March 25, 2016

2008: An electric supercar in a Lotus body? Who cares? Just a couple bored rich nerds playing "let's build a car."
2012: An expensive luxury sedan? So what? They'll sell a few in California and fail once they learn how hard it is to build a car.
2013: People are buying them? Big deal. It's a toy for the rich. They still need a backup gas car at home.
2014: Superchargers? Whatever. It's still too expensive of a car. We sell more cars in a month.
2015: No one cares about consumer reports or safety ratings anyway.
2016: Did you say 100,000 reservations in 2 days? It goes how far? Wait, that's the 0-60 time? F*ck! (Hey Janice, get me some retirement papers!)

Red Sage ca us | March 25, 2016

PhillyGal: +42! EXACTLY! The Ultimate Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything about "How Will Naysayers Attempt to Cope with the Phenomenal Success of Tesla Motors?"

finman100 | March 25, 2016

love the PhillyGal timelime! LOL, but it's true.

biggestfan | March 25, 2016

I guess I would be considered old school. I have been following Tesla from way back when Martin Eberhard was with Tesla. Read the forums a TON, but don't post too often. Been dreaming of my Tesla since I first found out about the Roadster. Had tons of friends telling me it will never happen, no way they get 200+ miles, blah blah blah blah blah. Spent so much time trying to figure out how to get a Tesla Roadster. I wanted to get a Roadster, drive it everywhere and make all those people saying it couldn't be done scratch their heads and wonder how they did it...maybe give them a ride and scare them with the acceleration to help them realize just how foolish they were.

I think the first couple of days will net about 20,000 reservations. I wouldn't expect some huge influx because all of us that do put down a reservation will very likely be waiting for 18 months to 2 years to receive our cars and lets face it, most of us just don't want to part with money that far in advance...even if it is only $1,000.

I thought of trying to take the day off to visit the only Service Center we have in Minnesota, but I realized that I would probably be better off waiting until I can order online. I look at it like this, I have been waiting for a Tesla for 10 years already. What difference does it make if my order takes a couple of extra months because I didn't go do it in person. All that would do is decrease my billable hours.

All that said, I do think the number of Model 3s that are sold will increase quickly after deliveries begin. I would be surprised if Tesla isn't able to get to 500,000 cars by 2020. Tesla is the ONLY car company out there that is taking the need for production capacity of batteries so seriously that they decided to build a factory big enough to be able to meet the demand at 500,000 cars per year. Sure some other manufacturers have tried writing agreements with battery manufacturers, but NONE of them took the initiative to line up a couple of Lithium mines to make sure they have a supply of raw materials.

carlk | March 25, 2016

The gigafactory is what will make all the differences. Tesla is the only EV company with this kind of vertical integration. If you read the history Henry Ford relied on suppliers in the beginning and weren't able to begin mass production until Ford started to produce most components in house.

biggestfan | March 25, 2016

@carlk You got that right!!! None of the others will be able to catch Tesla. By the time they really get into the game, who would you rather buy from. A company who just started producing electric vehicles, or one who has years of experience and billions of miles under their belt already.

Hi_Tech | March 25, 2016

Other companies are pushing the risk away to battery manufacturers. The problem is the battery manufacturers are too risk-averse to jump into significant ramp-ups. Somewhere I read LG Chem had about 1gw manufacturing capability 1-2 yrs ago. Even if they fully utilize their current factories (add production lines to fill out the space and efficiencies), then double with new factories, you are getting into the 3-4gw range. And that is one of the largest producers.
Tesla/Panasonic is talking about 50gw with the GigaFactory, then add on whatever Panasonic is making currently... complete different playing fields!

alnrench2 | March 25, 2016

I plan to place an order on the 31st at my local store less than three miles away from the house......might even order "two" because my girlfriend will certainly desire one of her own. I have a Model S now, and until recently, had a Volt for 5 years, serial #313. However, as much as I liked my Volt and always sang its praises, the upcoming Chevy "BOLT" will not be supported with a quick charging network, and does not excite me as the Model 3 does. I believe Tesla will have a higher standard of quality and customer satisfaction.

apsley | March 25, 2016

I used to live in Vancouver, Canada. It has a lot of condo towers and whenever they announce a new one, people buy all of the units in it, sight unseen, almost immediately. I don't think that people will have a problem with ordering a Model 3 sight unseen.

SUN 2 DRV | March 25, 2016

PG: "Thursday night the other automakers are going to need the PeptoB on hand."

Might be wise to get themsleves some Depends too... :-)

bb0tin | March 26, 2016

I am expecting hundreds of thousands of reservations, possibly a million+, in the first month.
The reasons are many:
Tesla is aiming at total sales of 500,000 cars per year by 2020, so that gives a ballpark of expected sales for model 3.
The cost of the 3, particularly after incentives, is less than many comparable ICE cars.
The 3 is in the largest selling price segment which is tens of millions of cars per year.
The deposit is fully refundable, is a 'mere" $1000, and the final decisions need not be made for a couple of years.
Once reservations start, anyone considering a 3 will reserve ASAP, rather than wait, in order to get a place in line.

Ross1 | March 26, 2016

There won't be any reservations in the first days, as the computers will crash

Gen3Joe | March 26, 2016

A few things to keep in mind.
- Reservations are already open for SpaceX and Tesla employees. That's a pool of 20,000. Before the 31st there will probably already be around 10,000 reservations.
- This is a worldwide event
- 100,000 Model S owners exist every one of which is aware of Model 3 and many of whom will by more than 1. I would expect 50,000 reservations from this pool alone.
- The vast majority of EV enthusiasts either can't afford to or are not willing to pay the price of a Model S but will leap at the opportunity to get a Model 3.

For these reasons I believe we will see well over 100,000 reservations by the end of April 1st and I would not at all be surprised to see over 200,000.

georgehawley.fl.us | March 26, 2016

@Gen3Joe: I like the way you are thinking. Any way you look at it, Tesla has achieved an amazing amount of public recognition with no advertising. This will be big.

@bb0tin: I think 500,000 cars in 2020 is very, very optimistic. A 50% rate of growth year over year would have Tesla delivering 75,000 cars in 2016, 112,000 in 2017, 168,000 in 2018, 232,000 in 2019 and 348,000 in 2020. That is a ludicrous rate of growth for a company. 500,000 in 2020 would be unbelievable. But who's counting?

TaoJones | March 26, 2016

*chuckle* It would be a no brainer that there will be 100K global reservations by eod 4/1. I stand behind that prediction and those that believe similarly.

With that said, we will likely only get the numbers for 3/31 eod in the next quarterly call. So the speculation will continue for months.

cloudohana | March 26, 2016

I think there will be a lot of reservations. I've been obsessing for months. Model 3 will be my first Tesla & my first totally EV car. Sorry to the Volt owners, but it looks like an economy sedan from the 90's to me. The rest of the EVs are tiny and weird looking, or really just hybrids. I want to get rid of the ICE engine completely. Tesla is the only one to make EVs with real range, make them into next gen cars, and have the supercharger network to make long distance (or even to the next city) travel possible.

bb0tin | March 27, 2016

@georgehawley.fl.us
The predictions of 500,000 cars by 2020 are from Tesla themselves.
Given that Tesla can produce another Model 3 line in less time that the first, and that battery costs are expected to about halve by 2020, and that the Model 3 will be a better car for less money than most of it's competition, then 500,000 may be a pessimistic number.
PS: I believe that given the rapid warming that we are now experiencing, that COP21 has established the acceptance of action on Climate Change, and that the economics of electric cars to the consumer by 2020 will be better than for ICE cars, I predict a rapid increase in electric car production by then. Tesla will have the proven manufacturing, the proven economics (and I predict a massive reservation backlog), that they will go all out on Gigafactory 2, 3... and more manufacturing. I do not see a good reason why not.

Red Sage ca us | March 27, 2016

President georgehawley: I'd just like to interject that certain terms are at times used interchangeably, but actually have slightly different meanings, if I may...

- Capacity is what the Fremont facility is capable of doing per year in a best case scenario presuming nothing goes wrong.
- Production is the number of units that Fremont will actually churning out per year.
- Deliveries are the number of those products that actually reach their Customers and are accepted during a given year.

It is very unlikely that these will all be the same. It is most likely, I believe, that Production will lag behind Capacity... While Deliveries will be less than Production... In any given calendar year.

During 2013 Capacity at Fremont reached 25,000 units. Production was very close to that number. But around 22,000 were Delivered that year.

During 2014 Capacity at Fremont reached 50,000 units. Production was around 35,000 units. But Deliveries were only a few over 31,000.

The goal was to finish 2015 with a Capacity of 100,000 units. Due to issues bringing the Model X up to speed, that has not yet been realized. It is now hoped that goal will be reached by mid-2016. But Deliveries still exceeded 50,000 units in 2015.

I believe the goal is to definitely have a Capacity at Fremont for no less than 200,000 units by mid-2017, and hopefully sooner. That is in preparation for the upcoming release of Model ≡. I believe that vehicle will require a minimum starting Production rate of 2,000 units per week to satisfy its initial demand. That is equivalent to a 100,000 unit Capacity. If that Production begins at some point during Q3 2017, in order to facilitate beginning Deliveries during Q4 2017, things should go well. Meaning, if 80% of what is Produced is Delivered, then there should be something over 20,000 happy Customers enjoying their cars by Christmas 2017. I can only hope that Production began even earlier, so that around 35,000 Customers could have their cars by year end.

But though that would be a brisk running start, Tesla Motors would have to ramp up Production rather quickly. I expect there will be a lengthy Reservation list prior to October 1, 2017 -- certainly no less than 150,000. Tesla Motors will need to reduce 'The WAIT' from 12+ months to only 1-to-3 months in short order. Thus, they'll have to increase the Capacity for Model ≡ to 4,000 units per week very quickly -- then implement it. From that point on, they will be able to more gradually ramp up Production until they reach their 2020 goal, then evaluate where to go from there.

JeffreyR | March 27, 2016

@Red Sage +1 well put!
You should make that last comment an OP in this section. It will make it much easier for me to reference. Who knows some may even read and remember it.

Red Sage ca us | March 27, 2016

JeffreyR: Thanks! A link to this page including "#comment-817552" at the end should do the trick!

https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/im-excited-model-3-reservati...

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