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When the $$$ start rolling in from deliveries - when will Tesla formally announce more GF and assembly plants.....October?

When the $$$ start rolling in from deliveries - when will Tesla formally announce more GF and assembly plants.....October?

They need more capacity!!! Build it and they will come!

Updating of an old post -- do you think we are over 600k reservations yet???

Well photo of SN1 is out -- and it is AWESOME. My bet is they saw a spike of reservations over the past few days as many news sources covered the story.

So - the first deliveries to 30 special people happens on July 28. Ramp-up thereafter seems modest but not optimistic (no-way more than 40k delivered in 2017). So as they trickle out and more and more people get to see them in the wild.....what happens to the total reservation count?

From original post
I have run into so many people who are so curious and following the Model 3 progress -- but are waiting for the car to actually be fully revealed (and on the road so they can see / drive it) before they actually make a reservation.

The current reservation count which is also a mystery (somewhere between 350k - 650k) will likely grow rapidly once this day happens in the not too near future. What are everyone's thoughts on additional reservations a week and a month after the final reveal and initial deliveries happen?

Maybe we can get mntlvr23 to kick in a hat (if somehow we can get a count?)

noleaf4me | June 24, 2017

OK -- need to be the first guess......

I say they get an additional 125k reservations after the initial reveal and that grows to 275k after 1 month after these bad boys hit the street.

noleaf4me | June 24, 2017

Sorry -- I meant "final reveal" Damn lack of edits.....

KP in NPT | June 24, 2017

I doubt we will ever know the answer because Tesla won't reveal it. We might be able to guess based on how much deposits held jump as shown in the quarterly reports but that would be hard since they will be delivering then as well.

mntlvr23 | June 24, 2017

One week - 200,000
One month - 500,000
5 million orders by the end of 2018.

topher | June 24, 2017

When will the first day be, when the waiting list gets shorter?

Thank you kindly.

mntlvr23 | June 24, 2017

@topher - great question

iaeen | June 24, 2017

Whatever happens, it's certainly going to be interesting.

I'm expecting a lot of activity immediately after the final reveal. Probably a fair number of cancellations (those still holding out for a HUD/solar roof/instrument cluster behind steering wheel) as well as another enormous surge of new reservations. Probably won't be quite as spectacular as when reservations first opened, but this'll be a nice boost before things settle down to more normal demand.

TheChad | June 24, 2017

The reservation count is going to remain steady. They will be producing and delivering cars at an equal rate to new reservations. I believe the goal was 5K per week!

noleaf4me | June 24, 2017

topher - it may be years....

Efontana | June 24, 2017

Most people don't buy cars with reservations.
Elon wants to sell to most people.

Cultural change takes a long time.
Elon does not like to take a long time.

There will be cars ready for walk in buyers and eligible for the tax credit in January 2018.

As for this year, since if you have a deposit you will get the full tax credit, i don't know about walk ins and deposits.

Woodsonpd | June 24, 2017

I'd be willing to bet they will reach 1 million reservation holders before they catch up by ramping up production, and then over the course of 1-2 years that number will go to 0 when they finally hit demand. I'm very optimistic about Tesla, if you can't tell :)

iaeen | June 24, 2017

@Efontana - "There will be cars ready for walk in buyers and eligible for the tax credit in January 2018."

No way! Every single Model 3 that Tesla can build through at least the end of 2018 is already spoken for.

Tesla was very specific about what the delivery order is going to be, and changing that would be like spitting in the faces of their biggest fans. Not to mention it could very well get them sued for breaching their own reservation agreement.

Efontana | June 24, 2017

iaeen,

As long as all depositors receive the tax credit and receive the list of features there is certainly no grounds or breech.

They do not have to even make sure all receive the tax credit, but I think they will.

I don't think the order is going to change a whole lot - employees first, proximity to factory first.

I think:

Tesla can build a whole lot more cars than they are letting on.
There will be multiple lines.
A line with RWD and no option variation will run 3 shifts - the only focus will be "Faster, how do we make it faster?"
Other line(s) will produce the AWD and highly optioned vehicles.

There should be some cars from the standard line that make it to walk in customers early next year when the tax credit is still available.

It is in Tesla's interest to serve these customers while demand and excitement are high. Tesla wants to serve everybody.

Where is the spit? Everyone gets better than bargained for.

Efontana | June 24, 2017

Still looking for spit...

The only people even close to spit are people who are betting against (speculating against) Tesla's ability to execute.

Ehninger1212 | June 24, 2017

I agree with iaeen no way they are going to have cars for people to walk in and buy in January 2018. That would be a huge slap in the face for early reservationists such as myself. I would be pissed if I'm waiting for a car for over a year, already put down $1000 and some joe blow can just walk in and pick one up. Without any of the waiting.

Actually me being pissed would be an understatement.

iaeen | June 24, 2017

Tesla's manufacturing capacity would need to be a full order of magnitude higher than projected in order to satisfy demand from reservation holders and get inventory available to walk in customers by Jan '18. Unless they have a couple more Gigafactories ready to go in secret, I don't see the production ramp up being significantly faster than projected. It doesn't make sense from a business perspective either. You build out manufacturing capacity based on what you think long term demand is going to be. If you build tons of factories to satisfy initial pent up demand and they end up sitting idle by mid-2018, you're gonna go bankrupt.

iaeen | June 24, 2017

Tesla's manufacturing capacity would need to be a full order of magnitude higher than projected in order to satisfy demand from reservation holders and get inventory available to walk in customers by Jan '18. Unless they have a couple more Gigafactories ready to go in secret, I don't see the production ramp up being significantly faster than projected. It doesn't make sense from a business perspective either. You build out manufacturing capacity based on what you think long term demand is going to be. If you build tons of factories to satisfy initial pent up demand and they end up sitting idle by mid-2018, you're gonna go bankrupt.

Efontana | June 24, 2017

It is important to prime the pump for the walk in buyer.

The best time to do that is when there is a healthy tax credit.

It will take a while to prime the pump - 6 months.

RWD, big battery, leather, fancy wheels already offered to the preorder list - maybe black, as the paint dries faster.

The car looks really good in black.

KP in NPT | June 24, 2017

There will be no walk in buyers until at least the end of 2018, likely 2019. There are likely 600K reservations. It is not possible to clear even the US portion of that list by this January.

noleaf4me | June 24, 2017

Agree KP. They may ship cars to dealers that are not for sale but for test drives & just to see up close -- but they will likely not sell those (and if they did it would be few and far in between and certainly as a "demo" model) I wonder how long it will take Tesla to get their next factory (In China I believe) ready to produce cars?!? My bet is they do not get under 350 reservations until plant #2 is fully on-line.

noleaf4me | June 24, 2017

350k reservations that is. Being sloppy today....

iaeen | June 24, 2017

@noleaf4me - looks like the original Gigafactory location was announced in September '14 with construction started in January '15. Based on that, we're looking at Q1 2019 before a Chinese Gigafactory starts real production. This is China though, so they might get it done faster.

I'm not sure about "fully on-line" though. I think it'll be many years before even Gigafactory 1 is fully built out. I'm expecting they'll build several regional factories in parallel and reserve building them completely out to full planned size for when they become the market leaders in the future EV and industrial electrical storage industries.

bj | June 24, 2017

@topher - yes that is THE question, with the supplementary question of when will Tesla reach steady-state in Model 3 production, i.e. delivery wait time has asymptotically reached a fairly constant minimum, and for all practical purposes there is no longer a "queue".

For that we're looking at least 2 years I reckon.

noleaf4me | June 24, 2017

BJ - the Model 3 may have a wait list until the Model Y is well into production. I honestly feel they will not catch up even at 500k units produced / year. Watch Tesla keep pushing the lower end Model S -- maybe even dropping the price as the costs of the battery and overall economies of scale for Tesla reduce their overall cost/vehicle.

dd.micsol | June 25, 2017

Expect another 400k reservations after last unveil.

dsvick | June 25, 2017

@iaeen - "Tesla was very specific about what the delivery order is going to be..."

You must have some insight the rest of us don't. Have you seen the countless "when will I get me car" threads?

carlk | June 25, 2017

The car will sell itself and lots of it. Many people still have anxiety of EV but when they see all those 3's around them on the streets and owned by friends and coworkers their perceptive will change. The thing still is you can't find another car this good in many ways at this price, or for that matter at any price other than cars from Tesla. Even now I'm hearing people say the more they've heard about the 3 and its sightings the more they think they will be getting one.

As for reducing price of S I don't think it will ever happen. Especially when people could not afford one will have an option now.

carlk | June 25, 2017

perceptive --> perception

iaeen | June 25, 2017

@dsvick - "when will I get my car" is very much up in the air depending on how well the manufacturing ramp up goes. I'm talking about relative priority, not absolute dates.

From the reservation agreement:
"By making your Reservation, you have secured the approximate priority within your region for taking delivery of your Model 3."

Further details from the reservation announcement (https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/reserving-model-3):
"In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region.

Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets. It is not possible to ship to all regions simultaneously because regulators in each part of the world have slightly different production requirements. Staggering deliveries in this way also allows us to provide the best possible customer experience."

Given the above expectations set be Tesla, there would be outrage if they formed around and made cars available to non-reservation holders before the reservations are satisfied.

iaeen | June 25, 2017

Formed -> turned

hoffmannjames | June 25, 2017

Reservations were only needed up to now so that people could save their spot since the Model 3 was not available to order yet. Once the Model 3 design studio goes live on the website, I imagine reservations will not be needed anymore since people will be able to directly place an order like they do now for a S or X. So I imagine reservations will go down as reservation holders start placing their orders and eventually new customers just place orders directly without needing to reserve first.

dsvick | June 25, 2017

@iaeen - I'm aware of their announcements, but they have not been completely clear on what "priority" means and there are tons of threads that speculate about it. For example, what does it mean that prior owners get priority? Do they get moved up to the front of the line regardless of when they reserved? Or is just to the front of the line of everyone that reserved the same day? How will the roll out from West to East work?

Yes they listed all things but neglected to mention the specifics on how they all get applied.

dsvick | June 25, 2017

"Once the Model 3 design studio goes live on the website, I imagine reservations will not be needed anymore since people will be able to directly place an order like they do now for a S or X."

True, but only when it is live for everyone. If they roll it out to limited groups at a time then reservation should still increase for a while, unless manufacturing outpaces new reservations.

SUN 2 DRV | June 25, 2017

The only cars for walk in buyers anytime in 2018 might be from people who configured their car but then at the last minute walked away. Tesla might want to sell it to the first guy in the door with a signed check.

georgehawley.fl.us | June 25, 2017

No one will see Model 3 cars purchased in the next couple of years as owners will keep them under lock and key for fear of carjacking.😉

topher | June 25, 2017

"Tesla might want to sell it to the first guy in the door with a signed check."

With 400,000+ reservations, and less than 100 possible configurations, they will just deliver it to the next guy on the list ordering that exact config.

Thank you kindly.

JeffreyR | June 25, 2017

The only way to jump the line is to buy a Model S/X or find someone to sell their Model 3 to you. In the last case, neither of you would qualify for a tax credit. So the "final" buyer would need to have more money than patience.

You better get that MS/MX real quick as July is right around the corner.

I agree w/ @topher, the date when the Reservation List starts to shrink is very interesting. But, I doubt we would ever know when that is.

Tesla needs to finish GF-01, expand Fremont, and do a whole bunch of other things. I think the date that the Model 3 list will shrink is when they announce the Model Y and a bunch of people transfer their deposit. Depending on how The Great Ramp Up is going, Tesla may choose to wait for the MY Unveil until after many of the M3 orders have been fulfilled.

kaffine | June 25, 2017

My guess is they will get another large bump of reservations after the next reveal. There will be some cancelations as well but I think new reservations will exceed the cancelations. I would guess they will have slightly over 1 million reservations and it will stay that way until delivers start in large enough numbers that it starts to drop. I don't see that many more people wanting to wait 1+ years for a car that haven't already reserved one.

noleaf4me | June 26, 2017

Good summary Kaffine -- I too believe many may get frustrated in having to wait so long. Patience......

COrich | June 26, 2017

@Efontana

There is no guarantee that having a reservation means a tax credit. Tesla never guaranteed a tax credit to anybody. In fact, there are already more reservations in the US for the 3 than necessary for Tesla to blow by the production numbers associated with the tax credit before even 1/2 of the cars are delivered (even with the gradual tax credit phase out) without even considering the S and X production in 2017 and 2018.

I figure that the more recent reservation holders have no chance of getting any tax credit at all.

PhillyGal | June 26, 2017

Good thing the "production numbers associated with the tax credit" only trigger the start of a time frame where the tax credit phases out and don't signal the end.

noleaf4me | June 26, 2017

If you are just making a reservation now - very little to no chance you will get a tax credit (unless Tesla ramps up the production numbers REALLY fast). If you do - it will be the $1875 variety.

SUN 2 DRV | June 26, 2017

"With 400,000+ reservations, and less than 100 possible configurations, they will just deliver it to the next guy on the list ordering that exact config."

Yes, I'm sure that would be the most likely scenario, if the original order was cancelled early enough.

But I can see scenarios where near the end of a quarter the car is already at a delivery center and the order is canceled. Makes no sense to ship it back, and I believe it will be sold to someone locally, and very possibly the first guy in the door with a check.

sbeggs | June 26, 2017

Count will be HUUUUGE!

noleaf4me | June 26, 2017

I wish Elon would give us a solid number of current reservations....I'm sure the bankers who gave him the new line of credit today were told!

ReD eXiLe ms us | June 27, 2017

Efontana: Most people buy used cars that average over 10 years old and cost around $19,000. Elon can't sell any ten year old sub-$20,000 Tesla used cars because they aren't any. It would be nice if we could worry about 'most people' later, I think.

ReD eXiLe ms us | June 27, 2017

Efontana: The 'pump' has already been 'primed' with the hundreds of thousands of Reservations for Model ☰. The only way there will be walk-in inventory to purchase at Tesla Stores in January 2018 is if Tesla sticks with a three-month time frame for selling off demo/loaner cars as 'new' inventory at reduced prices. There will NOT be 'Acres and Acres of CARS!' filling lots, baking in the sun, just waiting for someone to come over and buy them some day. There WILL be a constant turnover of demo/loaner cars though, I think.

ReD eXiLe ms us | June 27, 2017

I doubt that Tesla will 'Go LIVE' with a Model ☰ Design Studio that is open to the public, those who do not have Reservations, prior to being able to fulfill a new order within three-to-six months anywhere in the world. Once people at large get to see, drive, experience the Model ☰ for themselves...? The Reservation count is going to shoot to around 2,000,000 or so. People will convince themselves they can continue to drive their 'old' Accord, Camry, Corolla, Civic, Altima, Sentra, Optima, Elantra, Fusion, Focus, or whatever for another couple of years while they stack cash to trade up to a Tesla. Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai, and Ford will presume that their Sedan sales are flagging because of interest in Crossovers and SUVs. They won't notice it is actually because their former Customers are going fully electric until it is too late, and the Model ☰ is dwarfing their annual Sales. Oops.

kzodz | June 27, 2017

reservations may jump in areas where there are still large incentives available for EV's. In other areas like the US, where that should be dropping I'd expect most people to sit on the sidelines until they are easily available.

As far as fantasies that people could walk in a store and buy one in a few months that would be nice for many, except for poor Elon Musk who will spend several years in jail for lyng to investors and the SEC in regards to their plans and ability to produce vehicles. But, maybe he'll take one for the team. Wonder if they have extradition treaties with Mars?

noleaf4me | June 27, 2017

ReD - really - 2 million? I really do not believe they will ever get that high .... that could be a 3-4 year wait.

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