Shall we guess how many Model 3s will be made in 2017?

Shall we guess how many Model 3s will be made in 2017?

So Mr Musk gave us a few clues as to production numbers...I'm going to keep his first two, and his last...going down a bit for his September numbers (seems tough to go from 3.3x increase between July and Aug, then a 15x increase between August and September).


So about 35 thousand Model 3s in 2017. That actually would be a pretty good number.


Edited: so whoever is the closest (shipped from factory or delivered or produced---whichever number Tesla gives out as their official year end 2017 number of model 3s) will get an "Tesla only" aluminum parking sign to put up over their evse

gavinfaulkner | July 3, 2017


bmalloy0 | July 3, 2017


Wait, no, that's how many boars Inhave to kill...

Brian | July 3, 2017


Nexxus | July 3, 2017

I know the exact number...all of them made in 2017 will be the number. :-)

My guess, around 50K.

Wildcardtaylortesla | July 3, 2017

35,000 is very close to the number that will put them over 200k cars sold in the U.S.

mntlvr23 | July 3, 2017

35K - 65K maybe 50,000
Elon was overly optimistic when he said 100,000-200,00 a while back, so this time he will be much closer and on the conservative side

Sandy’s 3 | July 3, 2017

I'm in. 32,500.

PhillyGal | July 3, 2017

Made vs delivered is the question.

If they're close to the mark, they'll probably make a bunch but hold off on delivery for US customers to deliver that 200,000th in January.

dyefrog | July 3, 2017

What do we win? Make it worth my while. I'm on track to win the hat and I already have a coffee mug. Take it from there.

nadurse | July 3, 2017

more than 20k and less than 40k.

Darryl | July 3, 2017

20 - 35k.

akgolf | July 3, 2017


daverileyak | July 3, 2017

33.5k Model 3's delivered in Q3 + Q4. We will probably never know how many were made. Though they do reveal the number in the delivery pipeline as of the end of each quarter. That number can run in the thousands.

Tropopause | July 3, 2017


jstack6 | July 3, 2017

don't forget the 1st one Serial Number 1 on Friday July 8th, then 30 on July 31st at the official presentation, then off we go with more each month to about 30-40K

Frank99 | July 3, 2017


Steve18 | July 3, 2017

25k - they had battery delays for the X in q2. They'll have more delays in the second half on some stuff for the 3. Not meeting his own target but well on the way to changing the world nonetheless...just slightly less quickly than he promises (as usual)

w8ng4m3 | July 3, 2017

35k - 40k. Total accumulated US deliveries at end of 4Q will be capped at 199,500. Hoping excess Model 3 production will go to Mexico/Canada.

AlMc | July 4, 2017

24,025 produced; 23,875 delivered

Iwantmy3 | July 4, 2017


This is likely to leave total sales below 200K in the U.S. That should make a lot of people here happy.

mntlvr23 | July 4, 2017

33100 of course - it is a magic number

noleaf4me | July 4, 2017

I would have said 33,333 but someone else guessed that already. Another guess is about 100 less than the number it would take to get total vehicle sales from Tesla to get to 200,000 total sales in the US (of course that also depends on Model S & X sales).

Thus put me down for 34,133

noleaf4me | July 4, 2017

Are you donating a hat mntlvr?

bj | July 7, 2017

OK I'll play because I've refined my model based on Elon's 3 data points, namely 100 cars in August, 1500 in September, and a production rate of 5000 cars per week in December. I assumed that 5000 cars/week doesn't happen until the week before Christmas. Turns out a cubic polynomial fits the data points pretty well.

The formula predicts 111 cars in August, 1486 in September, 4070 in October, 8909 in November and 16,476 in December, for a 2017 total of 31,081 cars (including the 30 cars delivered at the reveal).

That's my estimate and I'm sticking to it :)

noleaf4me | July 7, 2017

BJ - more thought than I put in it.

Are you donating a hat to the winner?

dsvick | July 7, 2017

"don't forget the 1st one Serial Number 1 on Friday July 8th, then 30 on July 31st at the official presentation"

The first one is today, Friday July 7th not the 8th, and the delivery event is the 28th not the 31st.

noleaf4me | July 7, 2017

gavinmcc - is a hat included for the winner?

mntlvr23 - maybe you can show him how to manage a contest.

eeb9 | July 7, 2017


And don't forget your towel

mntlvr23 | July 7, 2017

I think that NL4M is just crying out to start and run his own contest.

Let me know and I'll play - but since hats are kind of old hat by now - how about we play for some Tesla tire chains?

stevenroglen | July 7, 2017


ReD eXiLe ms us | July 7, 2017

More than many believe and fewer than some would hope for...

elephant in a bottle | July 7, 2017

< 70k

socaldave | July 7, 2017


keithndeborah | July 8, 2017