Looks like Model 3 production should be ramping up soon!

Looks like Model 3 production should be ramping up soon!

Good news! According to supplier, Model 3 production should increase to 5000/week:

carlk | December 14, 2017

Looks real. Good news.

KP in NPT | December 14, 2017

Excellent news. :)

El Mirio | December 14, 2017

This is peak season for airfreight and can cost between USD 7.00 to USD 10.00/kg, to fly in steel parts from Asia is extremely costly right now. If they wait after X-mas prices drop, still very expensive tho.

If they are flying stuff in before x-mas that must mean that ramp is well on the way right now.

michael | December 14, 2017

Must be a logistical nightmare. I wonder how soon they'll have a rail line hooking up to the Gigafactory. A rail line already goes by the Fremont factory...

El Mirio | December 14, 2017

@michael, i suspect they will skip rail. During Semi announcement they said that Platooning with Tesla Semi will be cheaper then rail.

Using trucks it is also easier to fine tune arrivals, if Freemont is not ready to offload trucks, they could wait on a truck stop near by, Freemont could call Truck forward on a short notice, much harder to do with a rail composition.

weluvm3 | December 14, 2017

Could be stuff like the logic board of the EAP/FSD computer. That's made by NVIDIA in Taiwan, right?

95dawg | December 14, 2017


spockagain34 | December 14, 2017

A rail line wouldn’t matter here, this is from a supplier in Asia. They’re using air because via boat would take too long for the ramp, which is an excellent sign. Ideally for them, things will hit a pace where they can rely on shipping via boat and meet quotas soon, but hopefully this means Tesla needs the parts right away.

El Mirio | December 14, 2017

That particular supplier however is shipping gears and axles, is that not assembled at the Gigafactory onto the skateboard?

phil | December 14, 2017

Submitted by hoffmannjames on December 14, 2017 "Good news! According to supplier, Model 3 production should increase to 5000/week:"

Then why are they not producing 5,000/wk now?

They should have plenty of parts already in stock - they planned for thousands of cars per month, but have only been producing dozens or hundreds per month since July. So presumably the current constraint on production is those known and yet-to-be-found "bottlenecks" Musk has talked about several times. Have they been fixed? If so, we should be seeing thousands of cars produced weekly. If not, how can Tesla have confidence the bottlenecks will be gone and production fully ramped "soon"? Sure, they (and we) can hope for the ramp. But until they can demonstrate volume production in the thousands weekly, it's just hope, not confidence.

El Mirio | December 14, 2017

We dont know whether they have a higher production rate yet. Car companies part logistics are usually just in time, they dont want to tie up capital on parts. Check Kanban production.

95dawg | December 14, 2017

Yup. Could be many reasons why sudden demand to suppliers.
It's possible that Tesla, with uncertainly in ramp up timeline and velocity, is erring on the side of overstocking parts. Kanban as part of JIT doesn't work if manufacturer doesn't have confidence with the suppliers' ability to meet the fluctuating demand.
There could be contractual penalties if certain number of parts are not ordered before EOY. It might make sense for Tesla to meet the minimum order requirement to avoid penalties.

Coastal Cruiser. | December 14, 2017

El Mirio said: "That particular supplier however is shipping gears and axles, is that not assembled at the Gigafactory onto the skateboard?"

As best I know we've only head that the motor is being built at the G factory. If still true it depends on which gears. ;>

BTW - There is a huge question regarding this article that has not been asked yet..... if that factory was instructed to produce 3K units per week instead of 5K - per the article- that's still a LOT of parts the past many weeks. Where exactly are those part, and why is an air operation required to get more of those parts here PDQ?

Inquiring minds want to know.

El Mirio | December 14, 2017

@CC; true! there is so many moving parts in manufacturing especially on ramp up. I worked in logistics and was involved moving cargo for shut down lines for GM, VW, Daimler and BMW.

I assure you every year they chartered +10x 747's each because of some hick up somewhere in the world, it could be bad planning, QC fail, port strikes, bad weather, volcanos or inconvenient holidays. Car companies do budget two digit millions for air charters every year, all of them!

I think they figured with all the moving parts, 1 out of 3 projects is likely to experience a hick-up, so might as well go ahead and budget for a good junk of airfreight every year.

@95dwag, hard to tell, my involvements in helping getting customers their PO's was very dynamic, day to day. Logistics feels like a battle field. Holidays at origin, strikes at destination, no access to capacity to move cargo, container shortage, tight logistics deadlines to reach a vessel, customers taking long time to take decisions, the list goes on and on.....

People not familiar with the industry reason by analogy, they view cargo movement the same way they can book a flight to New York in the morning and be on the flight in the afternoon. If you want to do that with cargo you pay USD 30.00/kg with a base load of 2700 kgs, so depending how much tonnage 50 to 90k to have the same timelines like a passenger would.

noleaf4me | December 14, 2017

Great news! I may still get my Model 3 in March!!!

El Mirio | December 14, 2017

you will get it earlier, they are working hard based on the news

El Mirio | December 14, 2017

you took my phone

vp09 | December 14, 2017

El Mirio,
So disappointed at the truth about rail.
It is by far the most efficient form of transportation around-- yet you tell the truth in your post. Also, there is that business of moving the cargo off the rail car onto a truck, for delivery to the final destination, so usually you end up trucking it anyway.
I didn't sell my Union Pacific stock when I paid for my Model S last year, thinking that UP would benefit from huge rail demand at Sparks Nevada .... Never imagined that Elon would come up with a truck that is more efficient than rail. Amazing.

Coastal Cruiser. | December 14, 2017

Some may recall that a kindly old smiling gentleman with the initials WB bought a pile of railroad stock a few years ago. A big pile. Smart move in an uncertain economic future, but now comes a tech that may be cheaper than rail.

Well, it's like Yogi Bera used to say: "The future ain't what it used to be".

Wonder what Bershire's stake in TSLA is?

vp09 | December 14, 2017

Yes, Warren Buffet, BNSF.

I hate to have to agree with Yogi B. as the sage of The Future, but you have called it right.

RadOne | December 14, 2017

Berkshire Hathaway does not own any TSLA stock. Tesla business does not fit in with the type of companies WB invests in. It is overvalued by the usual metrics and has poor cash flow. TSLA may do well but does not fit with the WB philosophy at this time.

Carl Thompson | December 14, 2017

"Never imagined that Elon would come up with a truck that is more efficient than rail. Amazing."

Even more trucks on the road and even more traffic. Thanks a lot, Elon! :-P

Rutrow | December 14, 2017

Electric barges Elon. No form of transportation is more efficient than ship. Would not only get trucks off the roads but would be easier on cars that ignore crossing arms.

phil | December 14, 2017

If they really forgot to order enough parts, they should just use rocket delivery by SpaceX.

El Mirio | December 15, 2017

@noleaf4me; A friend of mine bought a high end Audi a few years back, if i recall correctly he had a link from Audi where he could follow production step by step live. Would be cool if Tesla did that! Have the robots give some live production feedback on your car :o) "Hi noleaf3me, It was a pleasure installing the dash on your car for you i can't do that nolef4me."

Based on some posts on the Forum however this could backfire big time :o)

@VP09 Rail will be here to stay, Tesla did not disclose what traveled distance is needed for Platooning to beat Rail. Rail has a disadvantage that infrastructure cost is not as distributed as streets.

I would be surprised if Europe would allow long convoys Platooning on high ways, street networks to me are too tight, which may cause traffic problems if you have a convoy blocking highway entries/exits.Will be interesting to see in which scenarios platooning can beat Rail.

El Mirio | December 15, 2017

noleaf4me not no leaf3me! oops

El Mirio | December 15, 2017

@phil the planetary rocket traveling is the ONE thing i believe Elon came up during too much wine and ambien. I predict SpaceX will pay for their stuff with internet satellites and commercial satellites and not with some biz men needing to go to Tokyo within 30 minutes.

djlew8 | December 15, 2017

Mr. Short, Chanos, is now spewing that TSLA is worth 0$. What a greedy, non-visionary a**-h*le. I truly hope production continues to go well and Tesla breaks on through to the success it deserves.

El Mirio | December 15, 2017

since July 2017 it is over for the shorts, whether they get production up tomorrow or in 2 months won't matter. shorts claim that bulls are fanboys, to me their "arguments" are emotional, blind and self deceptive. blatantly obvious!

Tesla will have set backs, every company does, however teslas stream of good valuable decisions, being young, is not a common trade one can find in the market.

sbeggs | December 18, 2017

ramping up, yes, but they seem to be stacking up like cordwood in Tesla's parking lots and delivery centers!

Bluesday Afternoon | December 18, 2017


It’s getting colder so Tesla needs to deliver a cord of wood this week.

Rutrow | December 18, 2017

Do they make wood fired battery heaters?

Nexxus | December 20, 2017


Open the Model 3 doors HAL!

I'm sorry Dave, I can't do that...