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Bloomberg now says... I am retired from estimating production, and so is this thread.

Bloomberg now says... I am retired from estimating production, and so is this thread.

As at 28 May, Bloomberg ceased making Model 3 production estimates based on their model. They will however still report VINs created and submitted. So with that, I endeth this thread.

Historical stuff
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According to Bloomberg’s production model, Tesla reached the 150k milestone on 31 Dec 2018, 200k on 18 Feb 2019 (although Bloomberg later revised its quarterly numbers down - so it probably happened later than that - maybe early March) and 250k on 8 May 2019

That implied a pretty consistent production rate of between 5000 and 6000 cars per week. No other manufacturer is coming remotely close to that volume of production of BEV.

If this rate keeps up, Tesla would make over 300,000 Model 3 cars in 2019.

ebmcs03 | April 14, 2018

Day 1, 3/31 pre-reveal reservation holder. Still waiting for invite to configure. SoCal. So numbers don’t mean much to me.

johnyi | April 14, 2018

Why doesn't that mean much to you? you might be #114,000 in line. 2,800/wk will get you to an invite twice as fast as 1400/wk will...

dyefrog | April 14, 2018

I think the number is 2395

bernard.holbrook | April 14, 2018

3070 this morning (2018 Apr 15)... Looking forward to Tesla confirming that they are though the 3k barrier.

Go Tesla!

lar_lef | April 14, 2018

Great. I think we all can relax.

ebmcs03 | April 15, 2018

Means squat to me because many others who are also in so cal who reserved after me. Have been invited and I’m still waiting. So doesn’t matter if they making a billion if I don’t get invited.

bernard.holbrook | April 15, 2018

@rbmcs03 - You should care about how many cars a week Tesla makes because the more that they make, the faster they get to your order.

Bighorn | April 15, 2018

Karma is sweet

KP in NPT | April 15, 2018
dyefrog | April 15, 2018

bj, if you're listening, can you maintain your heading to the current number every few days?
Thanks

wylkatz | April 15, 2018

That would indicate that my car (VIN 183xx) hasn't been made yet? Not sure about that...

johnyi | April 15, 2018

@ebmcs03, I also think it no longer means anything to be in socal. That was just for the initial lots. Now they need as many delivery centers as possible to handle the volume. My guess is if you live in a Tesla-rich area like LA or the Bay area, you're probably at a disadvantage now as you're competing against so many other reservation holders.

Now if you know for a fact that someone who is served by the same delivery center and reserved after you, got theirs before you did, then that sucks and hopefully EM is looking into it as promised.

djharrington | April 15, 2018

+1 BH. Pretty entertaining!

KP in NPT | April 15, 2018

Bankwuptcy must be coming any minute now. ;-)

SolarCharged | April 15, 2018

As much as I want to believe Bloomberg’s 3000+ weekly production estimate, it doesn’t mesh with Elon’s CBS interview this past week when he read the factory’s tally board as just over 2000 during the previous seven days. Puzzling... Am I missing something?

carlk | April 15, 2018

Do we know when that interview was recorded?

njchillie | April 15, 2018

Tuesday April 10

jcd82 | April 15, 2018

I think bloomberg may be overestimating a bit now (but hope that's not true).

KP in NPT | April 15, 2018

According to the Bloomberg tracker, they were at 2395 on the 10th.

The tracker is not exact and in fact was actually lagging by a few days the last I heard. But compared to the Q1 numbers I think it was within 5%? (someone correct me if I'm wrong.)

Regardless of the exact numbers, it is clear that the ramp is accelerating.

Silver2K | April 15, 2018

this means they are building model 3s faster than Nissan is building the new leaf. teaching old dogs new tricks!

great news!

dyefrog | April 15, 2018

While we're piling on, Tesla is cranking out more model 3's in 4 days than GM spits out Bolts in a month.

njchillie | April 15, 2018

@dyefrog No doubt that’s true, but EVs are only a small portion of the vehicles GM builds, whereas they are the ONLY thing Tesla builds and the Model 3 is the highest volume vehicle Tesla is/will be building. Other than the obvious numerical difference, is there an additional conclusion to draw? Are you trying to compare the companies as a whole based on volume production of one vehicle?

jordanrichard | April 15, 2018

No, what dyefrog is pointing out is that obviously the Model 3 is in demand and the Chevy Bolt isn’t. The plant that makes the Bolt, also makes the Chevy Cruze. If there was real demand for the Bolt, they could easily adjust. The fact that there are thousands of Bolts sitting on dealer’s lots and there are no Model 3s sitting on a Tesla lot, says it all.

ravisundaramam | April 15, 2018

@njchillie | April 15, 2018: That is the point Elon makes about ICE makers. They are not fully committed build, their dealers are not fully committed to sell. They do it dragging their feet reluctantly. They do release plans for moving towards electric, etc. But in the top corporate offices, all the top line honchos spent their entire life laughing at electric cars and putting it down. They will never let electrics win. It would mean they had been wrong. As long as the old timers hold levers of power, their companies will never make any serious inroads into electric vehicles.

jvcesare | April 15, 2018

@njchillie Exactly. When I tried to get a new battery for my Leaf, I couldn’t get anyone to call back. Not a warranty replacement, mind you, but a $6,000 replacement. Even waving money in there face had no effect. After a month of calling the dealer and getting nowhere, I gave up. Dealerships want EVs to go away.

ebmcs03 | April 15, 2018

@johnyi “Now if you know for a fact that someone who is served by the same delivery center and reserved after you, got theirs before you did, then that sucks and hopefully EM is looking into it as promised.”

Yes that’s what bothers me. I wouldn’t mind as much if no one after me in Los Angels has ordered yet either. But a co worker of mine ordered on 4/1 at lunch time has been invited. I ordered 3/31 8:30pm before he reveled the car and I have not been invited. That’s my gripe. Plus there have been a few people here who reported they ordered during the unveiling and they have ordered.

mos6507 | April 15, 2018

"They will never let electrics win."

Ah, "They" again. Anytime someone says "never" they are usually wrong. I think you'll find that "they" are in the process of coming around, just slower than Tesla fans would like. VW group in particular seems to have seen the light, albeit nudged by scandal.

djharrington | April 15, 2018

“They” are “never” going to make a $35k Model 3... lol

TexasBob | April 15, 2018

Chevy Bolt plus Chevy Volt = 7853 total units for 1Q (4375 Bolt, 3478 Volt) = 604 per week. Model 3 production now at 5X GMs sales.

cafutter | April 15, 2018

The only reason I can think of for the dealers not wanting to sell them is the service. Since the service requirements for an AV are so much less, there is less money to make on the service. It is almost as if the sale is the loss leader and they make the profit on the service.

carlk | April 15, 2018

Not just dealers don't want to sell them but also GM does not want to make a lot of them. GM is losing money for every Bolt it sells as opposed to large profit from each SUV or pickup. It has no interest in selling more than enough compliance car that will allow them to sell SUV's and pickups.

Silver2K | April 15, 2018

djharrington | April 15, 2018
“They” are “never” going to make a $35k Model 3... lol
------------
Great job!!!!

---------------

njchillie
You're right, gm is shooting for poor production for a vehicle they have invested millions engineering.

Silver2K | April 15, 2018

carlk

I believe they want to sell them and compete, but the just can't

TabascoGuy | April 15, 2018

"Anytime someone says "never" they are usually wrong."

Whenever "someone" says "anytime" he is usually wrong.

jcd82 | April 15, 2018

always when someone says never they are always never right

Coastal Cruiser. | April 15, 2018

"They will never let electrics win."

"They will find a way to make electrics profitably or they will become irrelevant."

Fixed it for you, no charge.

-------------------------------
In the meantime...

Roses are red
violets are blue
you'll get your Model 3
and I'll get mine too.

johnyi | April 15, 2018

Speaking of Dealers, I've been hounded by the local Jag dealer to put a deposit down on the i-Pace this week. All from filling out a request form online last month when it was announced. I was wondering why I had to go to the dealership (not convenient to me) to place my deposit, rather than over the phone or online. Now I'm thinking it may be they just want to try to sell me something else (e-Pace, etc).

mos6507 | April 15, 2018

Waymo didn't partner with Jaguar rather than Tesla because a traditional automaker "wasn't serious about making EVs". All this trash-talking about traditional ICE automakers "never" wanting EVs to take over are just exploiting what will, in the rear-view mirror, expose itself as just a transitional situation. Tesla has an advantage in the sense that it doesn't have to navigate this transition but the downside is it can't leverage existing ICE car sales, hence Tesla's huge debt burden. So the cash-flow from ICE cars are sort of a necessary evil to bootstrap their transition.

TeslaTap.com | April 15, 2018

@johnyi - Let's hope they don't try and sell you the s-Pace, only available in a vacuum.

JustSaying | April 15, 2018

Can I get a Jag i-pace with a Tesla motor and battery pack?

Coastal Cruiser. | April 15, 2018

mos6507 said: "...Tesla has an advantage in the sense that it doesn't have to navigate this transition but the downside is it can't leverage existing ICE car sales, hence Tesla's huge debt burden. So the cash-flow from ICE cars are sort of a necessary evil to bootstrap their transition."

True enough. This has been true over and over again in history. Unlike in politics, where the incumbent tends to have the advantage, in tech, the company unencumbered by the past, not entrenched in the mindset that built the firm, and sans the egoic need to survive at all costs... is in the superior position.

We should all be hoping and praying that the entrenched automakers pull off a successful transition. The air is not going to be purified overnight. We really don't want to see the resultant mass employment if even one giant automaker were to fall. The present condition of the economy might not be able to absorb it.

SamO | April 15, 2018

Traditional automakers are dead men walking. So much sunk engineering costs in oil and gas.

VW is the most serious, but only due directly to their murdering pedestrians by making their vehicles more poisoning than usually permitted. And lying about it. Repeatedly.

But they will survive because their shareholders have already eaten several platefuls of $hit and losses already. Won't be the last.

Honda is screwed. Toyota, backing hybrids, and hydrogen is screwed. GM is really screwed. Ford too.

Who is well positioned for autonomy and full-line EVs?

Tesla. Only.

Waymo has a path to autonomy, but no fleet. Maybe they will pick up some automaker out of bankruptcy or a Chinese partner.

ravisundaramam | April 15, 2018

mos6507 | April 15, 2018

Ah, "They" again. Anytime someone says "never" they are usually wrong. I think you'll find that "they"
are in the process of coming around, just slower than Tesla fans would like. VW group in particular
seems to have seen the light, albeit nudged by scandal.

It typically takes 30 years to reach positions of real power in the car companies. And top guys hang around for 40 years in the board and other high places. The "They" I am talking about are the pointy haired bosses who have been promoted far beyond their level of incompetence. Usually from sales/marketing/legal streams, where schmoozing and brown nosing helps a lot more compared to engineering, R&D, production, inventory management or logistics.

It is the Class of '88 that is running the show in the top companies. Their only idea of electric motor is the asthmatic wheezing of their golf carts. They imagine diesel-electric locomotives to be "powerful" not grasping it has worse power to weight ratio than their golf cart, when pulling a quarter mile long freight train.

They had pissing contests, 0 to 60 mph, they kept making bigger and bigger IC engines, instead of ever trying a simple gas-electric powertrain. No battery, no hybrid, simple gas engine driving a generator and powering two motors one for each axle. They could have won the that drag race and bragged to high heaven. They did not. They are stupid.

True, I am talking after the fact with the benefit of 20/20 hind-sight. I plead guilty. On the other hand I was not running an auto company. It's their business, and they flunked. You think they are going to fall in love with the electrics? They need to retire and pass away for their companies to turn around.

VW seems to coming around faster because the diesel scandal removed a few big wigs and the classes of 1998 is moving upwards.

Haggy | April 15, 2018

"...Tesla has an advantage in the sense that it doesn't have to navigate this transition but the downside is it can't leverage existing ICE car sales, hence Tesla's huge debt burden. So the cash-flow from ICE cars are sort of a necessary evil to bootstrap their transition."

But it also means that when they finish the process, if they are lucky, their EVs will be stealing customers from...themselves! They need to stop the hemorrhaging. Tesla spends all the money and gets new sales. The others will spend the money and hope that people who used to buy an ICE from them will now buy an EV from them instead. They will spend all the money and get no new sales, and hope to stop losing sales.

bj | April 15, 2018

@dyefrog - “bj, if you're listening, can you maintain your heading to the current number every few days?”

Sure, I’ll do that. Note I am only quoting the headline production rate number from Bloomberg (still at 2785 per week) and not the trend number which they show as over 3000 per week as of next week, which may be a tad optimistic. We’ll see.

bj | April 15, 2018

@wylkatz - [in reference to over 16k cars made] “That would indicate that my car (VIN 183xx) hasn't been made yet? Not sure about that...”

There is not a 1-to-1 relationship between VINs and cars produced. Tesla cannot produce and deliver more cars than VINs, but they can (and do) produce more VINs than cars. VINs aren’t necessarily issued sequentially, and not all are used, some might be skipped for who knows what reason, and some are used for test not vehicles that do not end up in public hands.

bj | April 15, 2018

@Haggy - exactly, and that is how disrupted companies go out of business. It’s a brave CEO who tells his Board and shareholders that they have to give up a known and reliable revenue source in order to jump wholeheartedly over to the next technology track and lose revenue in the short term but stay in business longer term.

In most cases, in companies of any size, that step only happens after it is too late for it to be successful. History is littered with the carcasses of companies where exactly that has happened. In fact I can think of very few established companies which transformed themselves in time to either defend against or usurp the disruptor.

gballant4570 | April 15, 2018

There are costs associated with forging the trail, but that is Musk's intention - to show the way by leading the way. I (and we I assume) want the way shown, and are willing to be some of the first to put our feet on that path. Without Tesla, would there be an iPace in a few promised years to put a deposit on? I want to run the roads on Sun power. Tesla is providing the first real chance to do that.

ebmcs03 | April 16, 2018

It says over 3000 a week now. Pheesh!

Ross1 | April 16, 2018

Does anyone know how many shifts/ hm hours a day they are producing 3s?
I think I worked out that 500 000 a year was one per minute with 24 hr shift.

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