How many Model S buyers would instead purchase a Gen III if it was available?

How many Model S buyers would instead purchase a Gen III if it was available?

I'm wondering if the Model E/GenIII will eat into the S demand at all. I know that these are completely different cars similar to BMW 3 series vs. 7 series etc. However, I believe many Model S buyers stepped up and spent more than they normally would on a car because of the environmental advantages.

I'll start with myself: Given the choice I would still purchase a Model S over a GenIII car.

JAFIC | September 5, 2013

Eh...why are you comparing a to a B when B is not released yet.

It's like comparing Galaxy Note 3 to a iPhone 5S when 5s is not announced yet.

cfOH | September 5, 2013

What's the 0-60 time on the Gen-III? How does it handle? How roomy is it? Does it have enough storage to fit our dog on a road trip? What's the final price as I'd configure it?

When we know those things, I can answer your question.

Xerogas | September 5, 2013

I would buy Gen III. Much as I love my S, it's way bigger than I'm used to, and way more expensive.

So I plan to sell my S when Gen III arrives, and buy one (or two) Gen IIIs! | September 5, 2013

As a Model SP owner I would reserve a Gen III- Model E with a deposit now if they would let me (they won't, I asked). This would be adding to my Tesla garage-- not as an alternative.

JZ13 | September 5, 2013

@cfOH - Assume similar 0-60 as S. Assume a Performance version along with small and big battery options just like S. Assume it's similar in size and price to a 3 series just as Elon has targeted.

PAK | September 5, 2013

Not instead, but in addition. We've done the best we can for now, with a Model S and a Toyota RAV4 EV occupying the two stalls in our stable.

rbgliny | September 5, 2013

The Gen3 will be the next car my children will buy once they need another car.

jbunn | September 5, 2013


I think we've just assumed we're intending to buy a Tesla S with half the price tag. Those are pretty overwhelming assumptions you're asking us to make.

Carefree | September 5, 2013

Not GenIII but the roadster based on it. I can't wait! I'll be one of the first signature reservations:-) Oh, and my P85 will still be my day to day driver.

David70 | September 5, 2013

I wanted the size, comfort, and safety of the Model S. I doubt I would be as happy with the Gen III, even though it will be less expensive.

JZ13 | September 5, 2013

@jbunn - Not sure I follow you?

jbunn | September 5, 2013

Yes. You said "Assume similar 0-60 as S. Assume a Performance version along with small and big battery options just like S. Assume it's similar in size and price to a 3 series just as Elon has targeted."

Given that we don't know what it looks like and how many it seats, and given the assumptions you've asked us to make, it sounds like an S but half the price.

The S interior is pretty streamlined. It's not a complicated interior to make. The large display is cheap and getting cheaper, so there is no price pressure to remove or resize that. So I expect the E will share a similar sleek interior and large display.

negarholger | September 5, 2013

I am over the moon with the S as it is. If at decision time there would have been the choice between the S and a smaller car I may have picked the smaller car. In a couple of years we have to replace the other car and it will be electric - the X doesn't fit in the garage, so it will be a S or Gen3. If the S has a 500 miles battery by and the Gen3 not... It will be a S.

AmpedRealtor | September 5, 2013

No, I would still go big.

JZ13 | September 5, 2013

Gotcha jbunn. I'm not sure a 3rd row seat would fit in the Model E, probably not.

RedShift | September 5, 2013

In addition to. As big as the car is, it's spacious for me and my family, and it looks every bit the luxury top dog.

Gen3 will be the 3 series killer I will want for commute. After my TMS gets the bigger battery when it's available.

Mark K | September 5, 2013

I'd still get the S because it is more car - space, power, protection, and presence.

I'll probably get Gen III's for the kids, but my wife and I will still drive our Model S's.

To your question, I think there are some buyers today that are upgrading to an S class car today because it's the only way to get Tesla's technology benefits.

Once the lower cost option is available, they would downscale to that. Offsetting this effect though, is the increased penetration into the premium segment as more people switch from BMW, Audi, etc.

Overall, I think TM will see strong growth in each segment.

chrisdl | September 6, 2013

I'm happy that the Gen III is not available yet, since that gave me the excuse to spend way more than I normally would on a car :-)

pebell | September 6, 2013

+1 chrisdl

I stretched myself incredibly financially to be able to drive a Model S for the next 5 years (lease). Had the Gen III been available alongside the MS with similar range as the S85, I would have drooled over the MS but opted for the Gen III (which I have no illusions about, it will be a compact family car, not a smaller version of the MS).

But after all the calculating, cutting costs and the whole process of getting my wife "on board" with this decision, I am very happy (understatement) that there is no Gen III yet :) This will be my once-in-a-lifetime chance to drive a real supercar and feel "king of the road", and I will treasure each minute and every mile I drive in it :)

Mireille and Conan | September 6, 2013

We needed the space for 5 adults (and need every inch the pano provides). Maybe Gen III as a 2nd Tesla, but if we can financially manage another S or an X that's what we'll get.

dlewis | September 6, 2013

+1 for in addition to, not instead

carlk | September 6, 2013

I don't know about GenIII but my top choice would be a Roadster II or whatever super sports car they are thinking. I have never been a big car guy. If GenIII would be a M3 killer instead of just a 3 killer even at MS price level then I'm interested.

jat | September 6, 2013

Since the Model S was more than twice what I have ever paid for a car, if it was available at the same time I probably would have bought the cheaper version. However, after having driven the Model S for 8 months, I can't imagine giving up performance, room, etc, so not at this point.

DouglasR | September 6, 2013

If the GenIII had the same acceleration, same or better handling, same range, etc., then yes, I might prefer a smaller (and less expensive) car. I don't need a car with this much space, and a smaller car would be easier to park, maneuver, etc. The devil is in the details, however.

jat | September 6, 2013

I'm pretty confident the GenIII will not actually match the Model S in those categories, any more than a BMW 3-series matches a 5-series.

noel.smyth | September 6, 2013

if the III were available at the time I purchased the S I probably would opt for the III because of the size. However, now that I have the S, its the right size for me because I can also carry alot of cargo when I need to. We will also get a III when available to replace my wife's GTI in a few years when its available.

DallasTXModelS | September 6, 2013

Has there ever been a picture or description of a GenIII posted on I assume it will look like an economy car or at least much smaller than Model S. Even though Model S is a serious stretch for me I wouldstill buy Model S over a smaller economy version of TESLA.

katsu555 | September 6, 2013

Assuming Gen 3 is an
80% sized Model S with 80% ''capability' , a lot of the Japanene and Europeans will by it.
Supercharger network should not be needed, as there already exists CHAdeMO network in the case of Japan.

jonlivesay | September 6, 2013

I'll keep my S, but wanting to see the next generation roadster. Every time I see a Vette I imagine it with a sled underneath.

riceuguy | September 6, 2013

I want one for my wife to become a 2 Tesla family!

ssarker | September 7, 2013

My husband is all into the concept of EVs but still grumbles about the price of the MS. My 10 year-old suggested that he get a GenIII. My husband said, "what's that?" Waiting for reservations to open :)

TS | September 7, 2013

If they make a Touring version (like BMW 3 and 5 ) it will sell way better then Model S in Norway due to price.
If the only make it as a sedan with reduced luggagespace, they will loose 90% of possible sales over here beacuse will not reach the massmarket . It will then only compete with Leaf and I3 as a secondary car or citycar.
The cargospace to bcarry large babytrollers is a must.
Allready with the large S, there is a lack of such space for a family with small children .
(the hight in the trunk is an issue, but not a dealbraker for me)

Anyway, it is not impossible to answer your question without any availble specs.

Brian H | September 7, 2013

All anyone knows is a few vague Elonish statements about "a family resemblance" and "20% smaller". Draw your own mental image!

stephen.kamichik | September 7, 2013


ppape | September 7, 2013

Model S is the perfect size for our active family of 4 with sporting events. MS is primary car for my husband. Not likely we would have gone smaller if both were available.

Model X would be awesome for me, but don't really need the size of car, or size of payment. But I can still dream. :-))))

Model E will be my primary car. Can't wait for reservations to open. It will be fun to open a thread on Model E reservations and watch how fast they rise!!


diegoPasadena | September 7, 2013

I'm happy with my Model S. I'm glad I bought it, and I would do so again.
That being said, it's bigger than I need, more expensive than I'm used to.
So, assuming that at the same time that I made the purchase decision for the Model S, I would have had a choice of a car of the kind I imagine the Gen III to be - similar exterior design, similar interior design, (but perhaps not leather), 200 mile range, Supercharging capability, similar performance (should be easy with less weight), and half the price - assuming all that, which amounts to a mini-Model S, I would have opted for the Gen III. And the day reservations open, I'll be putting down my money for one. I'm pretty sure I'll hold on to my Model S, though.
But I think it's only a partially valid exercise to compare a ground-breaking product with one that appears four years later and is built on the shoulders of two more preceding generations, one of them being the very one you compare it to. I trust Tesla will knock it out of the park with the Gen III.
The part that *is* valid, is one that Tesla needs to think about: How can they offer enough of additional value with the Model S to justify double the price without artificially dumbing down the Gen III (Please, Tesla, don't do that!!).
As much as I hate to suggest it, keeping Superchargers free for Model S and Model X only while charging a fee for Gen III might be one way. Or, in the alternative, whatever is currently sold as an option needs to be added to the standard version of the Model S, resulting essentially in a price drop.
But not all has to be perfectly in line yet. It's a young, dynamic company and a young, dynamic product line. Some distortions are to be expected. Just as long as the Gen III doesn't completely cannibalize the Model S.

AlMc | September 7, 2013

If the assumption is 'Elonist'...meaning everything is 20% less. Size of car, battery and performance but cost is 50% less. I love my S but I would go with an E.

Brian H | September 7, 2013

He also hinted there is signif new tech for it he can't talk about yet.

GDH | September 7, 2013

Affordable means smaller, hopefully it will not look like a Leaf, Golf or Prius. Maybe a baby Model S.

jbunn | September 7, 2013

I think we probably will end up with a GenIII. My wife was saying yesterday that she wanted her own Tesla. I said, "You're a transit lady! You don't even like to drive! Besides we do have one." And she said, "Yes, but I want MY OWN Tesla".

There is a saying - "There is nothing worse than an ex-smoker". It's true. After a few years you become very intolerant. I am a prime example, and if you ever had to deal with my smoke on the street, at a restaurant, or smell me in the elevator, I sincerely am very very sorry. I did not know any better.

We've become that way with ICE. They smell. They leave marks. They are expensive to operate. Rather clumsy to drive. I don't see any reason why we would ever go back. So yeah, a GenIII or a different Tesla when we are ready for another car. I'm hoping that Tesla goes through with some of it's concept sketches showing different bodies on the chassis. Convertible would be nice for example. Hopefully GenIII is not just a model but a platform for many variants.

Brian H | September 9, 2013

I think the G3X has been promised.

NKYTA | September 9, 2013

I'm with @riceguy - when GenIII comes out, wife will be getting one, apparently in green. ;-)

rchiang | September 9, 2013

I'll have to see it first when it comes out before I make any decision.