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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

Captain_Zap | February 26, 2014

@Jamon - You missed one little detail. I got back into Microsoft a couple years later. Microsoft was very good to me. Those extra shares from a those splits would have made a big difference in my world. I learned to love those splits!

Captain_Zap | February 26, 2014

New short interest report is out:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest

It didn't decline as much as I thought it would during that period. Days to cover increased because average volumes were down while everyone was in the "wait and see who flinches first" mode.

We did wipe out lots of shorts in the past couple weeks but newbies that don't understand Tesla at all stepped up to the plate.

Jamon | February 27, 2014

@Cap you didn't mention that detail in your original post. I feel better now! You'll have to let us know when TSLA surpasses your success with MSFT :)

NomoDinos | May 7, 2014

ahhhhhh... anyone else temped to double down on 184? It's looking pretty tempting to me right now...

renwo S alset | May 7, 2014

Cap. I am old enough to know what LSMFT means, not sure about the other.

J.T. | May 7, 2014

Microsoft. Zap

nickjhowe | August 7, 2014

Near record highs. Looks like the Tesla China trademark news has caused a big spurt. Gigafactory progress and the Q2 results didn't hurt either!

Closed at 252 today. Record close is 254 back on March 4th.

Bighorn | August 7, 2014

So is 265 the intraday high?

nickjhowe | August 7, 2014

I think so. 265 on Feb 26th.

Red Sage ca us | August 7, 2014

That much closer to our seeing Jim Cramer's head explode...

Brian H | August 8, 2014

Haven't heard from JP lately. Wonder if he's rolling in his lead-acid income ...

Brian H | August 11, 2014

Deutsche Bank upgrade from Hold to Buy, and revised its target from $220 to $310. TSLA "gapped up" about $11 on the open and an hour later is up $14. Squeezin' time!

David70 | August 11, 2014

Down to $259.32 at EOD, but that's still ATH for EOD.

just an allusion | August 12, 2014

And then...

Today: Tesla stock hits a new closing high as chorus of optimistic analysts receives a new voice.

THE LEAD: TESLA JUMPS TO RECORD HIGH AFTER ANALYST NOTES PRODUCTION GAINS

Tesla Motors stock reached yet another record Monday, as the electric car maker rode a wave of optimism to a market valuation topping $32 billion.

Tesla established a new high closing price of $259.32, topping the previous record of $254.84 set March 4, by jumping 4.5 percent in Monday's trading session. The strong increase arrived along with yet another investment bank analyst predicting the company's shares will top $300 with a new automobile offering on the way and increased production capabilities.

Deutsche Bank's Rod Lache wrote in a note Monday morning that Tesla CEO Elon Musk's recent revelations about the expected jump in automobile manufacturing at the company's Fremont factory greatly affected his views of Tesla. Musk said in last month's earnings call that Tesla would double its production capabilities from the end of this year to the end of 2015, when he expects the former NUMMI factory to produce Tesla automobiles at a rate of 100,000 cars a year.

"At this point, we see an increasingly clear path to 500,000 units of annual production by late this decade," Lache wrote. "And we don't expect growth to end there, as Tesla is already contemplating opportunities for additional production capacity."

Tesla shut down its production line last month to install new equipment meant to increase the number of cars it can make and prepare to manufacture the company's next offering, the Model X, and rebooted production last week. Tesla currently offers only an all-electric sedan, the Model S, but expects to begin sales of the SUV-like Model X next year.

Musk is also planning to reduce costs through his other main production goal, a giant battery-production facility dubbed the "Gigafactory" that he says will manufacture more lithium-ion batteries in a year than were produced globally in all of 2013.

Deutsche Bank predicted that the cost savings resulting from a successful Gigafactory "could have profound implications not only for Tesla, but for the overall auto industry," could give Tesla a cost advantage on manufacturers of gasoline-powered cars.

Last week, Tesla began its push toward record highs after optimistic notes about the Model X from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who reiterated a $320 price target, and Pacific Crest analysts, who established coverage with a $316 prediction.

"Some in the market have described Tesla as a 'one hit wonder' with the Model S. We expect the Model X will put that to rest very, very quickly," Jonas wrote.

Deutsche Bank became at least the fourth investment bank to predict Tesla's shares would top $300, pushing its price target from $220 to $310; Dougherty analysts have the highest price target on Wall Street for Tesla, at $325. The lowest price target according to Thomson Reuters research is $75, and JPMorgan Chase has a target of $170 on the stock.

Tesla shares have now gained 72 percent in 2014 after jumping 343 percent in 2013 on the strength of Model S sales. With its market cap finishing atop $32 billion Monday, Tesla was worth more than half as much as General Motors, at $54 billion, and nearly half as much as Ford, which ended trading with a valuation of more than $68 billion.

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_26317044/biz-break-record-high-te...

Captain_Zap | August 12, 2014

When I got my car delivered the stock price was $32 and just over 430k shares sold.

Mathew98 | August 12, 2014

That makes you an old timer, Capt Zap! A wealthier one, of course...

Captain_Zap | August 12, 2014

@Matthew98

The funny thing is that I bought at $33 almost a year earlier. Motor Trend Car of the Year and real Model S deliveries really changed things.

I should have put a much, much smaller deposit and down payment on the car when it arrived. ;-)

Paul1839 | August 13, 2014

Can someone make a Tesla Stock app like the one for Apple. You put in a date and how much money you spent on (car down payment, wedding, new LED TV etc) it would be worth this much today. I did some quick numbers and if I bought stock instead of the down payment on my P85 I would have $325,000 today! No big deal love the car and glad I got it.

Captain_Zap | August 13, 2014

@ Paul1839

You are in good company. I try not to think about it. It makes Signature Red more valuable all the time. It's doing better than gold. ;-)

I looked here for historical prices: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/historical

It might be a worth a bit more tomorrow. Credit Suisse put a $325 target on Tesla after hours tonight. Not bad after another record close.

Brian H | August 14, 2014

CapZap;
yup, up 1% after hours. You must be psychic or somethin'!!

carlk | August 14, 2014

@Paul1839 If everyone bought the stock instead of the car the stock would not worth anything now.

Grinnin'.VA | August 14, 2014

Rats! TSLA just dipped under $260 a share.
Should I panic and sell?

Ron :)

P.S. Just kidding

gary.greene | August 14, 2014

Hey-I bought shares at intervals ranging from $32-$165. I've done well. I'm thinking this is another opportune time to buy more with the probability of the stock making another strong gain on the eve of Model X and the gigafactory. But at $250+ a share, I'm a little skittish-that's quite a chunk of change. Tempting and contemplating....stay tuned.

Mathew98 | August 14, 2014

Perhaps I will get back on the wagon after a 15% drop...

Captain_Zap | August 14, 2014

@ Mathew98

I can't play that game. I get killed every time and end up paying more later. Just when I think it won't go any higher or it will pull back... Blastoff! Then there isn't a retreat that can justify the cost. I have to stick to my guns or it costs me more money.

Grinnin'.VA | August 14, 2014

TSLA gained slightly again today.
I'm in it for the long haul.
So I watch the price daily for sport, not for looking for when to sell.

BTW, I'm up 30% in just a few weeks. If I could get gains like that regularly, I'd get rich.

Go TSLA!
Ron :)

Paul1839 | August 14, 2014

@carlk Yes so true and do you think I'm mad I bought the car and not the stock? No way! This car is worth more then the $325k I would have had. @Seeking Alpha you can quote me on that!

Captain_Zap | August 14, 2014

This is the fourth ATH closing price in a row.
Everyone is a winner today!

Brian H | August 15, 2014

Any juice left to squeeze from the shorts? Or are their bladders empty?

Grinnin'.VA | August 15, 2014

@Brian H | AUGUST 15, 2014

"Any juice left to squeeze from the shorts? Or are their bladders empty?"

IMO, for the stock of any technology/innovation company, there will always be shorts. On TSLA most of them are seriously in the red. It seems to me that many of them have deep pockets. I just consider them a nice source of support whenever the stock price drops a bit, as it will from time to time.

I'm in it for the long haul. Go TSLA!

Ron :)

nickjhowe | August 29, 2014

At the close on Aug 29:

$269.70

You are welcome.

Bighorn | August 29, 2014

@nick
Every buy I've made to date seems like a smart move today:)

Captain_Zap | August 29, 2014

Official intraday high $272!

Brian H | August 30, 2014

All the Chinese destination charger announcement?

NomoDinos | August 30, 2014

Haha, I'm so glad you guys convinced me not to sell at $120 when I thought TSLA was "just running crazy hot, probably going to taper off or drop soon". So quickly a year goes by :)

AlMc | August 30, 2014

The recent run up was due to the Chinese Gov. hinting that they would be putting 16 billion into EV charging infrastructure and the Unicom/TM joint venture. On top of that I feel that many people were seeing a California legislative session ending this weekend that would produce a deal on the GF. (it did not)

Ultimately though...TM will be successful.....BUT TM will be wildly successful if they get a solid base of sales (S and X) and a charging infrastructure ready for mass adoption of the model 3 in CHINA.

It is all about China. While I would like to see more SCs in NA if TM has limited resources (time and money) those should be directed towards China.

carlk | August 30, 2014

OK we are talking more of long term trend instead of short term variation now. The title of this thread does not look that appropriate anymore.

Either way I read more of the news and found that Unicom is a state run enterprise. The way Chinese business run this implies Tesla does have the blessing of the Chinese government. Nothing will help more than this for Tesla's business health in China. A very big plus.

Brian H | August 30, 2014

carlk;
Investors, and hence share prices, react to both near and far-term developments. Discount rates and probability guesses define where on the scale the current price settles.

Captain_Zap | August 30, 2014

I looked at the first several pages of this thread. It is an interesting history of price changes, events and sentiments in the past. Delayed cars, threats of shutting down the Volt factory, Supercharger announcement etc.

People were thinking the price was high at $38 selling and trying to time their way back in... It is very interesting.

I saw one particular post that said this:

"Jhall118 | September 11, 2012

This article might help:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/09/10/mondays-big-manufacturing-movers/

At least we can rule out the announcement of maintenance prices :) I hope it drops a little more tomorrow and I will buy more (I'm 24, which means I will have to spend my beer money, but pretty sure it will be worth it) ."

The stock closed at $28.80 that day.
I believe he's had a Tesla for some time now.

Brian H | September 2, 2014

Wow! Up to $277 pre-market today -- $7.30 gain !! ATH.

NomoDinos | September 2, 2014

:D That just brightened my early early morning. ALMOST makes me happy to be awake right now.

AlMc | September 2, 2014

Stifel upgraded to PT of $400.

Sam_S | September 2, 2014

Stifel Nicolaus Tesla upgrade to $400 --

Stifel Nicolaus Upgrades Tesla Motors (TSLA) to Buy; Sees 'Defensible' Niche in Luxury EV Market

September 2, 2014 6:12 AM EDT Send to a Friend

Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) from Hold to Buy with a price target of $400.

Analyst James Albertine noted the following key points:

-- The Call. TSLA appears to have carved out a defensible niche in the global market for luxury electric vehicles, and based on our recent tour of the Fremont, CA, facility, a sizable head start with respect to production. The key risk remains demand, in our view, but given (a) competitors' apparent unwillingness to fully invest (resources/managerial autonomy), and (b) TSLA's brand resilience in spite of high-profile accidents/fires/recalls, it seems demand deceleration may be a late decade call at the earliest. We believe TSLA is likely to further defend its already multi-year branding/production advantage relative to OEM peers chasing luxury EV share, and TSLA's Gigafactory will only augment its implicit battery cost advantage. As U.S. vehicle sales settle into a 16.5-17 mm unit run-rate through mid-decade, we tend to favor OEMs with clearer brand messages, differentiated curb appeal, and opportunities to scale abroad, which underpins our upgrade and $400 TP.

-- Why Now? We recently hosted a tour of TSLA's production facility in Fremont, CA, where it appeared the company remains on track (if not ahead of plan) to achieving a 1,000 unit per week production rate by year-end 2014. Simply put, the rate of change vs. our last tour (May 2013) was staggering. We sense TSLA may be currently running at an 800 unit/week production rate. Stacks of finished goods inventory (front bumpers, battery packs, various body panels) suggests the demand backlog remains strong. Production scaling to 50-100k units annually for the Model S/X seems more achievable to us now, with somewhat reduced execution risks given TSLA's reported quarter-to-quarter performance since our last visit. Given the pace at which production is ramping and the fact TSLA has only recently entered the EU and Asian markets, we are incrementally confident in management's ability to leverage its brand advantage globally over the next 2-3 years.

-- Model Updates. We are raising our 2017 EPS estimate to $8.28 vs. $6.14 prior, primarily driven by (a) increased Model X pricing assumptions (now a $5-10k premium to Model S vs. a $10k discount prior), (b) modestly increased Model S/X output (111k S/X units delivered in 2017 vs. 98k prior), (c) 33% non-GAAP gross margin (vs. 30% prior), and (d) R&D expenses running at 10% of sales (vs. 9% prior) and SG&A expenses at 12% of sales (vs. 11% prior).

-- Updates vs. Prior Thesis: Having defended our more cautious stance for over a year, we find ourselves torn in upgrading as it is clear substantial risks remain. This is, in part, given (1) the lack of available data question to management's claims with respect to battery pack durability (among other long-term warranty/residual/service/charging infrastructure related issues), and/or (2) despite lofty expectations, TSLA has never generated even one-sixth of the profitability per share based on the Street's 2016 EPS outlook (even less based on our updated 2017 estimate), while tax incentives are waning and Gigafactory construction is looming. We have no clarity on battery input costs and take management at face value relative to the estimated $200-300/kWh starting point while targeting $100/kWh ICE (internal combustion engine) cost parity inside of a decade. We are also relegated to performing various mathematical gymnastics to ascertain the cadence of Model S demand in its most mature market, the U.S., each quarter. While there are no fewer than a half-a-dozen other key concerns we share with industry purists, the reality is, these issues simply do not matter with respect to TSLA's stock. TSLA sentiment is like a freight train, in our view, benefiting from a well manicured growth story that has caught the eye of a much broader investor base relative to most auto stocks. TSLA has positioned itself as the smart vehicle of the future, with a glimpse into smart purchasing and smart infrastructure. TSLA has captivated a global audience, some of whom have lost interest in distinguishing horsepower ratings among the dozens of $100k-plus luxury vehicles, others that would have never considered spending six-figures on anything but a house. Like TSLA's right place/right time purchase of the NUMMI facility, or the astounding political energy around renewables (again), our call ultimately comes down to timing. We believe our risks remain legitimate, just much further out than we anticipated. TSLA will eventually face stiffer competition from traditional OEMs, we think, and will reach a ceiling of consumer support. But it is clear from our recent factory visit and conversations with investors, customers, and management that these concerns are at the earliest, late decade issues at best. To that end, we note our call does not hinge on Gigafactory timing, nor Model III pricing/volume expectations for 2020 and beyond. We are focused on the Model S and X alone. We are simply more optimistic of TSLA's success as a "slightly bigger than niche" global luxury auto manufacturer, and like the head start management has carved out for the brand.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $269.70 yesterday.

Jamon | September 2, 2014

@Sam S thanks for sharing that link. This is by far one of the most thoughtful and mature analyst opinions I have ever read! I think they mentioned "decade" more than they mentioned "quarter". Very impressive from an analyst!

I love this section of the last paragraph, starting with a lot of sobering reasons to be concerned about the stock price, then ending with the reality of Tesla's place in the world:
"tax incentives are waning and Gigafactory construction is looming. We have no clarity on battery input costs and take management at face value relative to the estimated $200-300/kWh starting point while targeting $100/kWh ICE (internal combustion engine) cost parity inside of a decade. We are also relegated to performing various mathematical gymnastics to ascertain the cadence of Model S demand in its most mature market, the U.S., each quarter. While there are no fewer than a half-a-dozen other key concerns we share with industry purists, the reality is, these issues simply do not matter with respect to TSLA's stock. TSLA sentiment is like a freight train, in our view"

tes-s | September 2, 2014

I love that last paragraph too. Leads you to one of two conclusions: Price target of $400 or price target of $100. :)

JZ13 | September 2, 2014

+1 Jamon - Well said as always.

tes-s - Predictably twisting the story as always. Nowhere is $100 PT mentioned.

Captain_Zap | September 2, 2014

There could be momentum added by the destination charger news.
I'm looking an intraday high of $284.89 so far today.

Jamon | September 2, 2014

@JZ thanks! But I have to agree with tes-s also. While they didn't mention $100, I have to believe there are a lot of people on the team that agreed on the price target who are probably concerned that $100 is a real possibility.

Think of it this way: If an EV startup company in California was being run by anybody else besides Elon and the team he has put in place, and the stock valuation is $33 Billion while earnings are negative, what would you do as an investor? I would sell everything and run for the hills!! And if I wasn't so passionate about the company and staying on top of all the news I would definitely be concerned that the stock is way overrated now. Because of all the issues listed in that last paragraph I would sell today if I didn't know enough to trust Elon's management through all the hurdles.

I believe that tes-s personally feels the same way and expects TM to continue to succeed, but is pointing out that a lot of people (including rational investors & analysts) look at that list of hurdles and think $100/share is just as likely as $400/share.

And I look forward to buying more shares from them the next time we get a nice big dip :)

Brian H | September 2, 2014

I think it was the "sentiment freight train" quote that did it -- a self-fulfilling prophesy!!

nickjhowe | September 2, 2014

$284.05 at the close.
How long before a correction? Or is this the start of a short squeeze?

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