I didn't find a thread on this question.
There have been a number of guestimates ranging from barely getting the signature models out by the end of the year (about 1200) to something in the 8000 range if ramp-up goes well.
A lot slower than I hoped. Yet still faster than others have predicted.
In my guess, there would be about 1500 X delivered this year (best scenario). Q1 onwards X will see a significant ramp up. 1600 X per week is Tesla's target at full production capacity.
3-5k by year end.
Buy a KIA
If Christmas they close down or slow down think 2.75 - 3.5 k by year end. Most figured over 5-7kbut that was wishful thinking three months ago
Elon was confident of ramp up rate. His goal is about 800-900 per week. Let's say they get to 600 a week in Dec., 400 in Nov., 200 in Oct., 200 total for September. Deliver 200 + 800 + 1600 + 1800 (3 weeks worth in Dec.). 4600 deliveries in 2015. They will be doing well to achieve this.
Do you think that they will open up the Design Studio to customers based upon their reservation number, meaning, if I have a number in the 12000s, that they won't open up the DS for me until Feb/Mar 2016 or would they allow me to configure earlier and just have to wait for delivery?
Thinking back to 2012 when the Model S came out, it was right around the same time of year when they started deliveries. I received my P85 off the UPS delivery truck the day before New Year's Eve, VIN ~3200 (non-Signature). I think some people ahead of me deferred until 2013 for tax purposes; another factor was that P85's were produced ahead of regular 85 and 60's. Still, that helps give a rough idea of how many they had produced by then.
The Model X ramp up would seem to have advantages of shared paint shop and other similarities in production and delivery mechanisms for Model S already in place. I hope to get my ~6900 non-Sig X85D by February 2016 or so.
. I hope to get my ~6900 non-Sig X85D by February 2016 or so.
So you do not want the bigger battery?
Anyone know if the first "production" reservation, that is the first non-Sig, got their reservation tagged as #1 or #1501 (assuming there are 1500 Sigs). My reservation is in the 2500 range, so are there 2500 or 4000 ahead of me? Thanks
I am #1427 (non-Sig). Reserved August 28, 2012, so over 3 years now. I thought I saw somewhere on here that reservation numbers were sequential. The email declaring X reservation was complete assigned the Reservation Confirmation Number (the number Tesla uses to 'track your account') and a Reservation Sequence Number, which "indicates your place in our reservation queue and the order in which you'll be invited to finalize your Model X configuration, options and packages." When I reserved, I could have opted for the Sig. Just not sure if there is a separate 'queue' for Sig. and non-Sig, ie. I am #1427 and whether there are 1,426 non-Sigs in front of me OR whether there are Sig reservations mixed in with those 1,426 reservations for one mixed queue. I assume it makes no difference as they are producing all 1200-1250 Sigs first, which makes total sense. I am just excited and ready to get off the roller coaster and into my X. Does anyone think I will have it before year end? Also, review your contracts. Your X will not be produced until you sign Purchase Agreement and pay "any amounts that are then required to be paid." I assume this includes any down payments required if financing. Therefore, it may be prudent to get your financing in order now and be ready to get that signed Purchase Agreement and down payment back to Tesla ASAP so no one can jump in front of you in 'production' queue. I am lucky enough to pay cash and will have Purchase Agreement signed and returned with full payment the day it is sent to me so production can begin immediately. Just a thought for those who have been waiting so long. :)
Supposedly the sigs are not included in the number scheme of regular reservations. Plus you also have additional overseas sigs and res's too.
Pretty much impossible to tell what your actual number will be and Tesla reserves the right to deliver the cars in any order they chose to.
I am #1845, and while anything can happen to cause a delay, I would think that @Jennifer and I are both under 3000 total give or take, and that it is reasonable to assume that we should get our cars by the end of the year. Of course everything depends on the speed of the ramp up. As far as all of the European reservations, I believe that sigs in the EU are not going to ship until early next year. There are not that many of those anyway. I will be keeping a close eye on the ModelXTracker.com website because by the end of October and November we will be able to get a lot of useful data regarding the production rate etc.