*Volunteered data so it may underestimate actuals.
Credit to volunteers at: http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1
Over 30,000. If all those reservations turn into orders, Tesla won't need any new orders until 2H16!
Nice work, again. Thanks!
Thanks again for another exceptional work of art and science!
EVino, I dub you the Graphic King. Good work.
China is actually pretty impressive.
Having been to China a few years ago, I was totally surprised how most cities have switched to electric. All scooters/bikes/motor-bikes are all electric (with the exception of the city of Yang Shao). The other surprising thing was how many nice new high-end vehicles they have on the road.
I think Hong Kong is.
Well I meant the number of reservations in China but ... :-)
Hmm, people were saying Tesla is doing bad in China.
Chinese govt only offers subsidies for cars made in China.
If Tesla wants a decent share of the Chinese market, they would have to build a factory there, employ local labor, and essentially give up any intellectual property.
Is it worth it?
Nokia built 7 factories in China and captured up to 44% of the global cell phone market until Apple brought out the iPhone that is assembled in China. Apple seems to be doing alright so far.
Volkswagen built factories there too. One day they figured out one plant made more engines and gearboxes than VW and associated cars sold.
Entire plants have been cloned, sometimes run by the same people. Very industrious and creative people, copying others is part of their genes and they find nothing wrong in doing so,
That's what I meant too. Hong Kong has a very small population compares to China or Europe.
Is it worth it?
Not sure of that. GM has built so many factories and are selling whole lot more cars in China then they do in the US but now they have over-capacity because China slow down and local brands catching up in the market. Now they want to export the Chinese made Buicks back to the US. Same problems with Japanese and German auto companies but you can't fault them for doing that. Make a fast buck when possible is always the business model their share holders demand and they follow.
My reservation is in Europe and starts with a 3. When I placed it only a few moths ago they said "Spring 2016" delivery. Even the Tesla website says "Early 2016" for orders. Basically 6 months from now.
Would I be correct in guessing hell will freeze over before I see a Tesla X before about this time next year?
I was reading that even with everything up to speed and a 2nd production line they would be capped at 1,000 cars per week, of which maybe 30% still need to be the S Model. So they will get up to a speed of perhaps 700 Model X units per week (3,000 per month).
So even if they were running from tomorrow at FULL SPEED there are 10 months of reservations on the list. But we know that is not the case.
I would assume that recent orders are really 12 months away? Just makes my car buying decisions a little trickier for 2016 possibly.
You've mis-read, or what you read was mis-quoted from the earnings call. Elon said the capacity of the combined MX/MS line is that it can produce up to 1000 of each per week. They are estimating total actual production numbers to be 1600-1800 per week average over the entire year, and they will be leaning more towards the MX initially. Actual production to be less than capacity to account for delays, maintenance, upgrades, etc.
I would expect them to be running full tilt early in Q1 if not sooner, and will burn through the current reservations by June or July at the latest.
Tesla aims to produce up to 1800 cars per week once full production rate is reached, ramp up during Q4.
They wish to build up to 800MX par week. Ambitious goal.
Assume an average over Q4 of half the full speed (start at 0 and linear ramp up to 800) we have 400/week, 11 weeks (41 to 51 inclusive) there would be 4400 MXs made this year. I think if they reach that many this is great.
If they started the ramp-up a bit sooner, maybe up to 5k MX built in 2015.
I'm at GP3276 (Europe). Tesla rep told not to expect anything before Q1'16. This brackets my short-term expectations, but leaves the worst case deadline open...
FWIW, Tesla reps indicated there were over 2'000 MX reservations just for Switzerland. Seems very high relative to the European total of 4680.
For us in Europe you got to add about 6 weeks just to get them over on the boat!! I reckon *maybe* July next year for me. Q1 is a no no and Q2 I think never gonna happen unless very low on that list and they wanna get a few units into Europe and on the roads for testing etc.