This thread is for tracking the actual highest VIN-number. Actually I found a VIN 9903 at TeslaMotorClub.
When do we see the 10.000?
Sig 95 VIN 17185 NL
That's a good number. That maybe means something good for Q2, because the VIN doesn't seem to be between the US-VIN's ...
Highest: VIN#17185 (The Froq)
Hello everyone, just a quick question what does this all mean for a regular investor? How does this impact Q2 results? I apologize for the amateurish question in advance
Ordered July 8, Confirmed July 12
VIN showed up on my dashboard this morning! # 17237
It suggests that the sales targets for this year (21K) are very conservative. 17K VIN currently - 2500 last year sales+ 2 quarters @ 5K minimum = about 24K minimum.
Brian H: they appear to be running at 450-500 per week. We have 23 weeks left (ignoring the holiday week at year end). That seems to imply at least 11000 more by the end of the year. More if they manage to continue to increase output... so yes, 24k-25k seems like a reasonable assumption.
Elon said 25k annual rate at Teslive...
People who took the tour reported the last week of June was 600 and two other weeks in June were around 542 and 550. Not sure how many of those shipped out in time for Q2, but I don't see how they won't be raising guidance for the year from 21k.
But you need to reduce projections by about 1k cars inventory for the Europe and Asia pipeline.
Inventory? Tesla car lots? Doubtful.
The 21K includes overseas sales...so no need to reduce........
Thanks a lot Brian!! Appreciate it!!
Ordered on July 9th, confirmed on July 12th.
VIN #17239 showed up on my dash on July 13th.
A boat is like a dealers lot... or do we fly the cars over one by one ? Be my guest to ignore it. Whatever you put in that pipeline is lost - because you have to replenish the pipeline - until you discontinue the model.
Yes, there will always (every week/month) be a number of Tesla EV's being shipped to the (country of) the owner.
Updated the spreadsheet (below). Please, folks, when you post your VINs, also please post the date that your order was sent to production (the date you "finalized" your order). Thanks.
I guess "in transit" counts as inventory. I imagine TM will try REAL hard not to have any afloat at period end, though!
Thank you cfOH, very interesting!
I just got delivery notification. I was originally contacted for delivery July 29. However, I just got a call last night and they moved it up to July 19. I guess deliveries are picking up speed.
Ordered June 8. Confirmed June 21. Delivery July 19 to Chicago. VIN xx15685
16047 built approx 7.12
So this article by Adam Betancourt (real name?) at Seeking Alpha is citing the weekly production numbers generated by my spreadsheet. Does Adam frequent these forums?
You'll Be Surprised By Tesla's Q2 Earnings
Highest: VIN#17239 (mclary)
Things are definitely leading to a very conservative 21,000 figure. Hopefully, the number will be above 24k. That would be huge!
The big thing that I'm looking for is the deliveries in Q4 of this year. The reason is that there was already a 20k+ built up demand from last year. Once these have been delivered, I'd like to see how the demand continues afterwards.
I for one have talked about my MS to at least a dozen people within the first 2 weeks of owning it. Hopefully, that is the same response others have. Even if we can get one other to buy per quarter, that could lead to a huge growth for 2014!
Does anyone know what Elon meant by saying that they will make all kinds of cars in Teslive. Could that be a hint for making vehicles for the army? It sounds right. If the army uses these old ICE that are much slower than these electric cars then it is at a disadvantage! I feel that Tesla could have a LARGE contract with the army soon, or better said I feel that it SHOULD.
Just imagine a tank that is quicker than a motorcycle!
The "all kind of cars" was a reference to a Bloomberg interview, in which he said that with toungue-in-cheek, but the reporter still went with that quote.
@cfOH - The author misquoted your VIN tracking numbers. Issuing 17K VIN# does not equate to the same number of cars produced at this point in time.
The delivery of the 17xxx numbers won't be completed until August. So the author inflated the number quite a bit.
It is quite possible for TM to announce Q2 delivery of 5000 units with another 500 allocated for Q3 due to EU delivery in progress.
However, aside from the statistics, the over all article rings true. I believe TM will beat the street consensus and Goldman will reap a handsome profit once the next short squeeze is in play after Q2 release.
GS have been manipulating the market for decades. Yesterday's downgrade allowed them to accumulate while baiting the shorts to pile in again.
@Alaa - Elon was hinted at the various models TM plan to introduce when the factory is cranking out 500k per year. That will include MS, MX, M3 (gen3), M3X (gen 3 SUV), MP (pickup), MT (tanks).
You get the idea...
>>I just got delivery notification. I was originally contacted for delivery July 29. However, I just got a call last night and they moved it up to July 19. I guess deliveries are picking up speed.
That's great news! I hope mine gets moved up too - still scheduled for July 23 at the Costa Mesa service center in SoCal.
Ordered June 14. Confirmed June 16. VIN 1550x.
It was a joke! He was commenting that he'd made the crack in a Bloomberg interview and was nonplussed when it was reported seriously. Lesson: don't tell smart jokes to stupid people.
email@example.com | July 17,2013
MS 85 black, Tech pac, Air Susp, twin chargers
06/08/13 Test drive
06/25/13 order confirmed
06/25/13 Received Vin ...6071
07/17/13 Received notice that my car would be delivered late July
Brand new loaner that I'm driving: Vin 15,476
It has 43 miles on the odo when I picked it up yesterday 7/16/2013. I was the first customer to drive it.
I ordered one this past weekend. I ordered it the same day as I test drove it.
07/13/13 Test drive
07/16/13 Order confirmed (I waived the 2 week wait)
07/17/13 Received VIN ...17,3XX
Estimated delivery late August
So far so good...
@earlyretirement If you don't want to post your VIN, can you email it to me? I will ensure that it is not visible on the production-rate estimation spreadsheet I'm maintaining. Thanks.
earlyretirement - Congratulations and welcome!
@cfOH - I just sent you an email. :)
@ Cattledog - Thanks so much! I'm eager to join the Club.
Thanks ER. Here's the update spreadsheet:
Ah, I'm so new to the board I've never seen this before. I didn't know this is what you used it for. It's really cool and useful information. I don't mind if you use my # in the future. Thanks so much for taking the time to do this.
@earlyretirement - we all made an investment into our and Tesla's future... so we just want to know how we are doing. Factory is pumping out cars, so I can sleep save and sound and enjoy my awesome car during the day.
I don't think it is a bad idea to sell to the army. Next door to us here in Egypt, Israel is using them already and have been for some time!
At any rate Elon can sell the batteries and the motor etc. just like he is doing with Toyota and Mercedes. Genral Dynamics will be happy to. An eletric truck for the army that will travell longer than gas when new more energy dens batteries are out and twice as quick is an advantage. It will be silly from the army not to use it.
Don't you agree?
The (US) army is also doing a lot with solar panels to get rid of diesel generators when possible, afaik. Using new battery technology there seems plausible to be helpful in several areas as well.
Aren't the costs for a/c going into the billions per month for the troops in the middle east alone? Or am I misinformed there? I better shut up. :)
I'm sure TM can sell an EV tank to the army for a 6000% markup like all the other military suppliers. If you can outrun everybody else, do you still need armor plated protection for the tanks?
I think an armored MX would be an awesome idea for the secret service to use. Can you imagine a fleet of these MX protecting our VIPs? Outfit them with a taser type protection on the frame of the vehicle and we're all set.
Let's go another step further and have a police interceptor version of the Gen3 while we're at it. It ought to be outfitted with the highest capacity battery and there wouldn't any car chases, ever. How many of those would all the PD purchase? Think of the cars featured in Robocop fast forwarded 30 years...
Let's not forget an electric 3 wheelers for the meter maids. They need some love too!
These are my crazy ideas for the morning...
Just got my delivery date of August 3rd!!!
Ordered on 7/5
Finalized on 7/6 VIN 16942
Delivery on 8/3
Red S85, tech, black leather/obeche wood matte, pano, sound system
TM has said the MS does not meet certain police requirements.
@tezzla, that is very quick turnaround. Are they building the car or did they source something out of inventory. I ordered my car 7/2, waived the two week change period, confirmed order on 7/5, and showing delivery in late August. I'm on the east coast so I know there will be transport time involved.
VIN 16477 p85+ green/black int w/cf/tech/prem sound/paint armor.
@Brian H - I suggested Gen3 for a police cruiser. It ought to be lighter, faster, and able to add a few more 12v batteries to run dedicated electronics...