FSD and HW3

FSD and HW3

I have EAP, and yesterday, I took advantage of paying $3k for the early upgrade to FSD along with HW3. I know that this wont be available until later this year, but are there any educated guesses as to when this upgrade will be available?

legna_fo_htaed | July 29, 2019

Are you asking when FSD will be available or HW3? Some cars are already rolling out with HW3. FSD is depending on quite a lot of factors.

Joshan | July 29, 2019

Elon said end of Q4 so think Dec/Jan.

Joshan | July 29, 2019

On my above post I assume you were only talking about the install of HW3

dmastro | July 29, 2019

Tesla has been consistently late with major feature sets, so take what Elon puts out there with a grain of salt. Also, there will be a big difference between the FSD feature set being completed, and local/State municipalities allowing FSD... who know how long it will take to be approved for use.

You all may be using FSD early next year, or it could be 5 or more years off. It's all a guess at this point.

Joshan | July 29, 2019

The usage of it is a guess for sure. But I don't think the upgrade to HW3 is, they have to order those and have them made etc. Hardware is much easier to timebox than software.

dmastro | July 29, 2019

@Joshan: agreed, assume HW3 installation will begin roll out when FSD feature set is complete and existing software has been optimized for the new hardware (per an earlier EM tweet).

Actual use of FSD is unknown.

M3BlueGeorgia | July 29, 2019

There have been estimates that HW3 retrofits will start in Q4, for those with HW2.5 and FSD.

That's about the time that we are supposed to see FSD-specific features.

Unknown when Tesla will start upgrading those S&X with HW2 to HW3, but a number of those owners paid for FSD.

EVRider | July 30, 2019

Don’t think Tesla will start HW3 upgrades until there are FSD features that require it. At that time, anyone who purchased FSD and doesn’t already have HW3 will be eligible to upgrade. I don’t think anyone really knows when that will happen.

LostInTx | July 30, 2019

My hope is that if a existing EAP owner upgraded to FSD, they've update the chip the next time that client has a service appointment. The chips are there - just drop them in when the opportunity arises.

JAD | July 30, 2019

There are probably around 50-100,000 people ahead of you waiting for the upgrade that paid for fsd before you did. I wouldn't expect it this year.

PhillyGal | July 30, 2019

@JAD - That's what I was thinking as well. I just ordered the other day as well so I imagine there will be quite a line to start.

ICEMELT | July 30, 2019

I think they will make it a priority since they also need data from HW3 performance

Joshan | July 30, 2019

Dodie Williams
· Jul 7, 2019
Replying to @elonmusk and 2 others
When will you start upgrading the existing HW2 fleet? An estimate of course.

End of Q4, most likely

ADinM3 | July 30, 2019

Anyone know if the HW3 boards require connections to the cooling system? I seem to recall a photo once which lead me to believe it does. If so, this would eliminate the upgrade being performed by a mobile ranger and complicate/slow the upgrade process. There are special steps which must be taken when the cooling system is breached which currently can only be done at the SCs (i.e. purging lines, etc)

efuseakay | July 30, 2019

When Elon says “most likely”, that means it’s at least a year away.

raffidesigns | July 30, 2019

Schedule an appointment now with a Dec date. You're service center will most likely let you know they either have it or they don't. If they don't, keep asking them to push it out until they do. That way your be among the first

andy.connor.e | July 30, 2019

Its likely that true summon used exclusively in parking lots will be written into law allowed to be used first. You are completely gambling with FSD's true release to be used on roads in the state of being able to sleep behind the wheel.

Pepperidge | July 30, 2019

Probably early access program participants with FSD option will get HW3 update before others.

TabascoGuy | July 30, 2019

Aren't parking lots "private property"? I think summon can be used on private property now.

andy.connor.e | July 30, 2019

I think thats playing semantics. Its a public area filled with many people coming and going, while technically the parking lot is owned by the business/landlord. That depends though, can you currently use summon in a shopping mall parking lot and have your car pick you up at the front?

TabascoGuy | July 30, 2019

I'm not sure what the actual laws are for using summon in a mall parking lot. Maybe someone who does know can chime in.

andy.connor.e | July 30, 2019

I'd pay for the summon. The amount of time you would save not having to find a parking spot and walk into the store and back out again would add up REALLY fast. +1 for someone who does know to chime in.

Joshan | July 30, 2019

the answer is going to vary in every state, so no real way to answer that. Illinois is all jacked up and has distance from the public road as part of the equation. I had it help me once (blowing a stop sign) and hurt me once (some idiot hit me and they couldn't write him a ticket).

rhj | July 30, 2019

EAP with HW3 First.
FSD with HW3 Fleet Release Second.
FSD with HW2.x and scheduled for upgrade to HW3 Third.
No AP or AP only with purchase of FSD Last.

And its all noise until V10 Release

thedrisin | July 30, 2019

The owners of a private parking lot can decide on the rules. They may not allow skateboards if they want. They can decide if the liability of having autonomous cars is worth it. You cannot do whatever you want on someone else's private property. Your private property is another story, you decide the rules.

@andy. I prefer fo walk and get the exercise. Also, I park away from other cars. If you allow summons to decide on the space, you may end up with dings.

Joshan | July 30, 2019

@thedrisin that is a very good point I had not thought of yet. I also park in certain spots due to a nasty door ding 2 weeks after getting the car.

M3BlueGeorgia | July 30, 2019

@rhj There are no EAP owners with HW3, as HW3 didn't switch into production until after Tesla stopped selling EAP.
Therefore the first people to get FSD-specific features will be AP+FSD owners with HW3, since its just an OTA to them. Then Tesla will start bringing HW2.5 owners to get the HW3 upgrade. And somewhere in there, they'l have to solve their HW2 problem.

Anyone without HW3 will need a hardware upgrade. We don't know if Advanced Summon really requires HW3, but maybe Tesla made a mistake in not ring-fencing more capabilities with HW3 requirement instead of trying to get them to work with HW2.5

I also wonder if HW2 S&X owners with EAP but not FSD, would be offered upgrades to HW2.5 using the boards replaced by other HW2.5->HW3 upgrades?

hokiegir1 | July 30, 2019

@M3BlueGA - I started to say the same about EAP with HW3 and then I realized he probably meant Early Access Program, not Enhanced Autopilot. :) | July 30, 2019

@M3BlueGeorgia - HW2.0 to 2.5 paid upgrades for EAP owners doesn't seem too likely, but an interesting idea. Not sure it will provide any new features though. Most of HW2.5 was adding some redundancies. Also HW2.5 cars include a different set of cameras. There are other changes in a HW2.5, such as the steering rack. Doing a full HW2.0 to 2.5 conversion sounds really expensive - maybe $4000-5000? With a total conversion, the only added feature would be the Dashcam. Far cheaper to just buy a third-party dashcam for $500.

AlasCon | July 30, 2019

A $3k upgrade to FSD sounds attractive - but I can't figure out if I qualify. Purchased M3 DM LR with AP for $3k in April 2019, so I'm thinking/hoping I qualify? I emailed Tesla via the website asking about it, but no reply to date...

82bert | July 30, 2019

I believe the 3k discount is for those that purchased old enhanced AP (eap). I believe that was gone by April.

AlasCon | July 30, 2019

82bert thanks, yes that was gone, but after paying $3k for the then-called AP Tesla started including AP as a standard. It's all very confusing!

82bert | July 30, 2019

I can understand the confusion. I feel fortunate to have jumped on the 2k sale awhile back.

Milky | July 30, 2019

Does HW3 do anything for the car in addition to enabling FSD?

tdwin2000 | July 30, 2019

I picked up my LR RWD Model 3 in August of 2018. I have the EAP option which includes a lot of the stuff today's buyers have to get ONLY when purchasing FSD. Like auto park, Summon, Auto Land change on Autopilot, and NAV on Autopilot. So, know that the only thing I could actually look forward to is the Full Self Driving, I have no interest after giving it much though in spending $3000 now for something that might not get approval for regulation in my home state. Or, Tesla might not make available for a few years from now. I would rather save my money until I know it's on its way to our cars. The $3000 sounds like a bargain compared to the $6000 it was priced at but realistically, how many people actually shelled out $6000 for FSD software (which might not make it to our cars in the next 5 years or longer.

Tcloutier5890 | July 30, 2019

I would hesitate to let the car park itself, not because it would lack the ability to do so but that it would lack the sense to not park in some tight space next to some rusted out beater whose owner might not be careful when opening their door.. I apologize in advance to rusted out beater owners who are as careful as I am.

efuseakay | July 30, 2019

You’ll end up with a lot more than dings if you rely on the car to park itself. lol

M3phan | July 30, 2019

@tdwin2000, before full self driving, you would still get traffic light and stop sign recognition, and navigate on auto pilot on city streets.

cquail | July 31, 2019

I upgraded from EAP to FSD last night. While I believe it will be quite a while before FSD will be allowed or functional, i believe in the mission.

Our Model 3 already can drive itself on the interstate for a minute. Then comes the nag to keep hands on wheel. I am hoping Tesla will increase the time between nags for FSD cars and then eliminate it for interstate driving. That would make my 3K purchase worth it.

vmulla | July 31, 2019

If the car could accomplish FSD without the HW3, would you buy the upgrade?

If the FSD wouldn't happen but you're going to get HW3 only, would you buy the upgrade?

Those questions are two extremes in the purchase decision, but they'll help you sort out why/what.

To me, I am only looking at the purchase as a 3k investment in future proofing my car's hardware - that's because software is going to get more complicated, and additional processing power will help.

As far as software features go, I'm not convinced FSD will be allowed per regulation - so it really won't matter in the short term, the time span until which HW3 will still be considered 'new'.

Techy James | July 31, 2019


"If the car could accomplish FSD without the HW3, would you buy the upgrade?"

I honestly don't believe that FSD would be possible without HW3. Current level of EAP without Enhanced Summon and Local roads takes estimated 80% capacity of AP2.5 Hardware based on what Tesla has released. I see adding Sign recognition as well as Stop Light recognition plus monitoring for pedestrian traffic would require more than 20% processing power. Plus redundancy from AP3 is also needed.

"If the FSD wouldn't happen but you're going to get HW3 only, would you buy the upgrade?"

Given Elon's track record, I fully expect FSD to occur. The question is when. Will we be feature ready at end of 2019? Based on track record, I think this may be closer to mid/late 2020. Full autonomy where I can just put in my destination then without any input the car take me there I think we are several years away here, and wonder if sensors as they exists are sufficient.

Techy James | July 31, 2019

Now I want to add a third scenario that @vmulla provided

Outside the known AP3.0 Hardware (Processing Unit) will we need additional hardware before we can reach past the Autonomous L3 stage to get truly to the Full Self driving stage? Also if it's determined additional hardware is required, will those that paid for get free updates to any additional sensors that may be identified.

Based on current vision of 5 fixed Point of View Forward Cameras and 3 fixed Rear cameras; adding in 12 Ultrasonic Sensors and 1 Forward Radar do we actually have enough sensor coverage for all normal expected traffic situations?

Lets look at one common situation you have in rural areas that Limited Access and even local city roads wouldn't have. A side street approaching another side street cross intersection. In this scenario Our M3 is coming up to cross road and has a two way stop sign where cross traffic don't have a stop sign and current speed limit is 55 mph. Can the current fixed camera's pick up and identify if it's actually safe to cross if that car is traveling at a common 55 to 60 mph in this case?

Second case scenario that currently many times will disable EAP/AP on side road. Traveling down a side road with a hill that is going into the sun as you approach the summit of the hill. In cases where there is point where the summit steepness causes the forward road markings to vanish just before you pass the summit. Currently AP will disable requiring you take control due to loss of road and markings to the vision system.

eplaskett | July 31, 2019


I have the exact same thought as you. I really don't care about getting true FSD for city streets, nor do I think it will likely happen anytime soon. Indeed, it may never happen with current Model 3s.

I do, however, want to future-proof my car, and want the best highway Autopilot that I can get. The Autonomy Day presentation convinced me that the new computer is indeed significantly more capable than the current one. Based on what they demonstrated, and even though Elon tweeted a year ago that HW2.5 was sufficient for highway Autopilot, I bet that Autopilot on the highway will soon work better on HW3. I also suspect that EAP refinement for cars with HW2.5 will largely cease within a year or so, as I can't imagine that Tesla will want to continue software development for two different computers indefinitely.

So, I am probably going to push the BUY button on the FSD page here in the next day or so. I would have done so during the March sale if they'd already had the Autonomy Day demonstration. I have to say that that really sold me on the power of the computer, even if I am skeptical about true FSD on city streets.

stephenclabaugh | July 31, 2019

I would think people would buy FSD before the Aug price increase if they announced HW3 upgrades were available immediately.

Joshan | July 31, 2019

it will be even higher at that point, don't worry :)

bpaul | July 31, 2019

This isn't the first time I've seen Techy James's first scenario described as a situation where the Model 3 lacks the sensors to successfully navigate a real-world situation. I'm calling attention to it because I've yet to hear someone make the "well, actually, M3s will be able to do this and here's how" case. Anyone care to take a stab at it?

Joshan | July 31, 2019

why would we theorycraft, let Tesla design their car and stop trying to think you can do it better and know more than they do.

bpaul | July 31, 2019

To clarify the situation. The car is stopped by a sign at a four-way intersection with a two-way stop. You intend to go straight through. Cross traffic is 55 mph. Assume flat roads and no visual obstacles.

As I understand it, the car cannot "see" far enough to the left or right to know that the roads are clear and it is safe to cross. Is that wrong?

Joshan | July 31, 2019

Tesla says yes. How else would you ever have FSD...

bpaul | July 31, 2019

@Joshan -- We're well past the point where a healthy skepticism about FSD claims is justified.

Aside from that, I'm not turning off my brain, flawed though it may be, for anybody.