Six months on... let's take stock

Six months on... let's take stock

Well, today marks a significant point - the six-month anniversary of the first reveal of the Model 3 (well, it's 1 October here in Oz :-) and the excitement builds.

Where are we at? After surprising the world with nearly 400k Model 3 reservations, Tesla announced the "big ramp up" to even more aggressively pump out cars, bring forward the 500k per year target by 2 years. Astounding stuff - if they can pull it off. Instead of ignoring the Tesla phone calls, suppliers started jumping at them, EM setting them a stretch target of supplying in volume by 1 July next year.

We know that pencils are down, so that is a good sign that things are on track. Speculation mounts as to when the second reveal will be - later this year, or around the first anniversary? That will be a key indicator as to whether Tesla will begin to silence the naysayers. If the second reveal is on or before 31 March 2017, we can be confident Tesla has nailed it.

How do others assess the situation today? Tesla on target, behind, or even ahead?

All I know is that if I call 6 months one "wait", then I have only three more "waits" before I get my car (RHD market - but I'm quietly confident!!)

bj | October 15, 2016

@EaglesPDX - well, I started this thread, and it was not because I was demanding a 6-month update from Tesla, or even expecting one, but it seemed like a nice point at which to take stock as to where we are at and inviting speculation and discussion from the masses, because that's what forums are for.

When did GM reveal all the final details on the Bolt? 12 months before production or 2?

EaglesPDX | October 15, 2016

@bj " I started this thread, and it was not because I was demanding a 6-month update from Tesla, or even expecting one."

But you were asking for one and fair to say you were expecting one since you are asking, as are others on this and other "update?" threads, "Dude! Where's my car?"

Since only Tesla can answer the question, the question is only for Tesla.

It's odd that people excuse such poor customer service on Tesla's part. Saying "GM's just as bad", considering how some Teslerati fear and loath GM, is damning with faint praise.

You noted that "we know pencils are down" but the fact we have no six month update of what pencils down six months ago produced, pencils may not be down and there might be design issues just as there were with the similarly announced Powerwall which disappeared from the marketplace. A bit disconcerting since the Powerwall was based on the new Tesla batteries for the T3.

KP in NPT | October 15, 2016

God you're an idiot.

bj | October 15, 2016

@EaglesPDX - I know what my motivation and expectations were in starting this thread, you do not. Simple as that.

Pencils were down mid-June. That is four months ago, not six. The target was hit, because on 28 June at the Gigafactory tour EM said and I quote: "The Tesla Model 3 did hit the “pencils down” mark, CEO Elon Musk said during the Gigafactory media tour. Musk told reporters that the final designs for Tesla’s $35,000-and-up electric Model 3 were locked up two weeks ago."

Sometimes you say interesting stuff, but you seem to have a somewhat casual relationship with facts, and moreover when pointed out to be wrong, you often sail on regardless and continue to repeat the falsehood. That's what infuriates so many people here.

As to "excuse such poor customer service on Tesla's part. Saying "GM's just as bad" I reject the premise to begin with, i.e I don't think Tesla customer service is poor. Tesla has every right, just like every other corporation out there, to decide when it will make announcements regarding its products and what information it discloses.

The point of me asking that question was to find out whether you are holding Tesla to a much higher standard of disclosure than you do GM. You didn't answer the question.

EaglesPDX | October 15, 2016

@bj "The target was hit, because on 28 June at the Gigafactory tour EM said and I quote"

But no evidence that it was since there's no information provided to customers of what the target was that was 'hit". Four months later Tesla still can't say what the final design looks like.

Hopefully the design phase was completed but if so then Tesla is guilty of very poor customer relations in not providing the paying customers with the information. There's no way around that.

You keep saying GM is "just as bad" while saying GM is terrible so you are equating Tesla with what you consider poor customer service.

But GM did not ask for or receive $1,000 deposit so it owes potential customers nothing while Tesla owes 400,000+ actual paying customers a lot more. Certainly a six month update and answers to what the final design entails.

brando | October 16, 2016

Since 1980, one to two auto fire deaths per day on average.

When is the last time you read/heard about an auto fire death?

bj | October 16, 2016

@EaglesPDX - so basically you are saying EM is lying. He said the design is complete but you say without evidence you are not going to accept the CEO's word that it is. Astonishing.

"Four months later Tesla still can't say what the final design looks like" - well they could, but they choose not to (yet). And that seems to infuriate you, as if you feel entitled to demand what a listed company should and should not do.

You keep saying GM is "just as bad". No, I've never said that. I dare you to produce an exact quote from me where I have said that.

gregcropper | October 16, 2016

Crap! New product announcement has been moved back to Wednesday.

EaglesPDX | October 16, 2016

@bj "so basically you are saying EM is lying."

No more than Musk is "lying" by saying they will produce 500,000 cars in 2018. We all know it will be a difficult to reach goal and no one is going to call Musk a "liar" for setting high goals and falling short.

If the design phase was finished and finalized months ago then Tesla owes its paying customers the results.

Rocky_H | October 17, 2016

Heh, I think this is the best one yet. He says it's the same level of honesty or ability to be proven in "We just finished this." versus "Here's what we plan to accomplish in the next year." Ha ha.

Red Sage ca us | October 17, 2016

Elon, "Hey, Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit outta this here hat!"

Rocky_H, "Again?!?"

Elon, "Nuthin' up my sleeve..."


Elon, "PRESTO!"


Elon, "Woof! Musta brought the wrong hat..."

Rocky_H, "And now here's something you'll REALLY like!"

bgbythsea | November 3, 2016

Hey Red Sage, do you know where I could put a reservation in on some atomic powered roller skates?

Red Sage ca us | November 4, 2016

bgbythsea: Sure. You have to swing by Tokyo-To... The Shibuya District, to be exact!