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will EVs survive an all republican government

will EVs survive an all republican government

Does anyone have any intelligent insight into how the republicans will handle EV tax credits renewable energy solar rebates. Tesla is an American company that has brought jobs back to America they are a shining example of how you make America great. Will Trump side with the fossil fuel industry on every count or will he be more like Obama and back an all of the above energy mix. I know he will back coal and oil but I have no idea how a business man like Trump will handle new energy companies like Telsa Solarcity which is creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs, after all Trump is no stranger to using government handouts to build his business. Please post only intelligent informed responses

carlk | November 9, 2016

Tesla will not stop. US is not the only market in the world either. If this slows down legacy auto companies it will only allow Tesla to widen the gap even more.

Tropopause | November 9, 2016

If Chevy is relying upon EV incentives to sell Bolt, could be more problematic to GM then to Tesla.

Captain_Zap | November 9, 2016

@tropopause

GM and other large automakers were counting on an EV charging network that is largely subsidized by the government. That is why we hear so little about their charging network plans.

Mike83 | November 9, 2016

@Captain_Zap +10
Your correct. Another issue is the taxes Tesla has to pay will go down as will the very wealthy get tax benefits. Oil jobs won't happen since oil will keep dropping.This is my opinion but I am enjoying the stocks today. I would have preferred more incentives for EVs and a reduction of oil subsidies but I don't believe that will happen. Lots of unknowns. But it does seem not to hurt Tesla but may even increase profits.
It is what it is but things will change again. The unhappy people will still be unhappy. But when they look at their retirement activity they won't like it.

dyefrog | November 9, 2016

It would be in our best interest if he wiped out all energy related subsidies. (good luck with that) We've shown the viability of solar, wind, alternative energy albeit with governments assistance, now let the market take over. Once the oil subsidies no longer keep the price of fossil fuels artificially low, solar and wind will look like a bargain. Imagine how EV sales would pick up with gas at $12/gallon. Solar would soar when utility bills quadruple.

Dramsey | November 9, 2016

Prediction: this time next year, not only will Tesla still be going strong, but other EV makers will have joined the market.

SUN 2 DRV | November 9, 2016

I worry about the call for reduced regulation by the EPA and thus relaxed milage and emissions standards. This could take a lot of the pressure off the auto industry to innovate, and also increase the demand for oil based products like gasoline.

Let's sell more of 'dem big SUVs and help save the oil compaines.

Madatgascar | November 9, 2016

Tesla's US competitors have shipped a lot of manufacturing to Mexico that Trump wants to bring back home. This may improve Tesla's competitive position.

RedShift | November 9, 2016

@dramsey

"but other EV makers will have joined the market."

Not optimistic about that one. Unlike Tesla, they will be very dependent on subsidies. On vehicles as well as charging infrastructure. Tesla is dependent too, currently, but they can survive if they go away.

EaglesPDX | November 9, 2016

EV's will survive but take hit and US green house gases will continue to rise.

1. The national regs requiring zero emissions will go away.
2. The national EV highway will go away.
3. Tax credits for EV's will go away.
4. Gov't R&D and loans for battery tech and mfg, EV tech and mfg will all go way.

With CA, OR and WA being a EV refugee zone with 50 million people and pro-EV regs, EV's might hang on with Tesla and imports but GOP could pass legislation forbidding states to have stricter pollution and pro-EV regs and GOP Supreme Court will back the GOP legislatures.

US going anti-EV (what the election was about in large part) will cost world wide EV sales about 10% assuming CA/OR/WA can fight off the GOP even there, loss of Federal Tax credit will probably slow sales in those progressive states.

vperl | November 9, 2016

The Federal tax credit has and always had an ending, stopping point for each manufacturer.

Dramsey | November 9, 2016

@EaglesPDX,

I'm not sure what you mean by "U.S. Greenhouse gasses will continue to rise."

You m is they've been going down for a while now, right?

bp | November 9, 2016

The tax credits were always supposed to be short term, to help EV manufacturers overcome the initially higher cost of the new technology and help EVs compete with the more mature ICE vehicles.

Tesla should trigger the $7500 tax credit phase out sometime next year, and after that, Tesla needs to get their vehicle prices down so they can compete with other manufacturers, not only against ICEs, but also against EVs from other manufacturers who will be able to take advantage of the tax credits (if they are still available).

What appears to be a recent series of price increases for AP 2.0 ($5,500 vs. AP 1.0), pano roof ($500) and 100D (which could be an additional $10K) are moving the prices in the wrong direction and next year's phaseout of the tax credit will only make the situation worse, unless Tesla can reduce their costs for producing vehicles, while maintaining the margins they need to be profitable.

Mike83 | November 9, 2016

States also have something better. Its called incentives.

dsvick | November 9, 2016

Keep in mind too that, at some point, oil will go back up. Given the potential volatility of our new president I would not be surprised if that happened sooner rather than later. At that point EVs will be much more attractive to more people.

Eagles is right thought that the EV highway will most likely be a non-starter now. That might be a point in Tesla's favor though, since they'll already have the SC network. Heck, it might even prompt another manufacturer to take Elon up on his offer to buy into it.

EaglesPDX | November 9, 2016

@Dramsey "I'm not sure what you mean by "U.S. Greenhouse gasses will continue to rise."

US greenhouse gas emissions have been rising from 1990 to present. The small decrease you see is from the Great Recession with major impact on economic activity therefore industrial emissions activity. As we have slowly recovered for the GOP Great Recession, green house gases have started to rise again.

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions

Efontana | November 9, 2016

The president elect is not a republican.

SCCRENDO | November 9, 2016

Not a good sign. Trumps choice for EPA director
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-top-climate-skept...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myron_Ebell
Looks like we may be hearing a lot more from Mitch's scientists

EaglesPDX | November 9, 2016

@vperi "The Federal tax credit has and always had an ending, stopping point for each manufacturer."

And has always been too little to have enough of an impact. We have to cut greenhouse gases by 80% from 2000 levels by 2050. We were hoping to have 1,000,000 EV's on the road by 2015 but fell short.

We need to change out 250 million cars and light trucks in 34 years and we are way the mark. We likely need to double or triple the Federal Tax credit, allow it to be taken over several years.

The GOP has fought all the EV efforts in the past and with a free hand, will no doubt kill incentives for EV's just when science, economics, environment and national security say we should do the opposite of the GOP's ideology.

Mel. | November 9, 2016

Elon did step on it with his recent Trump comments.
However,
Trump will follow the Fathers of the modern electric car and help Tesla as Reagan and W.
Obama never did anything to help Tesla.

SCCRENDO | November 9, 2016

@Mel. Trump will help Tesla how?
By denying climate change?
By removing all subsidies?
By appointing a climate change denier to head the EPA?
By upsetting our overseas trading partners?

You make ridiculous statements never accompanied by explanation or fact.

EaglesPDX | November 9, 2016

@Mel "Obama never did anything to help Tesla."

1. Lent Tesla $500M to stay open in 2012.
2. EV Highway initiaive.
3. increased fleet MPG requiring more plug ins per fleet.
4. Higher emissions standards for cars.
5. Increasing oil prices and fossil fuel costs.
6. Appointing scientists to top posts instead of flat earth religious ideologues.

Those are just a few.

More to the point is Trump and GOP's opposition to EV's, climate science etc.

RedShift | November 9, 2016

@mel

Missed your meds? It's alright, I know you are excited about the sexual predator of underage getting elected to the top office, but you need to calm down and stop being fact free.

Mel. | November 9, 2016

As the father of the modern electri car Bush pushed thru and signed th $7,500.00 tax credit that we have all used..

Scc, you could be right, but predicting the future is not that easy.. you should know that.. I hope and believe that Trump will follow in the Reagan / Bush model.. which helps Tesla.
Eagles must still be in High School. He is unable to comprehend.. logic is not something he understands

Mel. | November 9, 2016

Red,
I thought you were not going to bring up Bill or Anthony

RedShift | November 9, 2016

@mel

I'm not. Are you dense?

tranhv68 | November 9, 2016

Tesla will hit 200,000 domestic sales by early 2018. At that point the $7500 tax credit will begin to phase out. Legacy automakers have yet to make a dent in their 200,000 allotment. GM's Bolt could be the big loser if the tax credit goes away. Also Tesla derived some of their revenue from selling zero emission credits, but as more and more legacy automakers add EVs to their mix, they will not need to buy credits so that source of revenue is going away anyway. I don't think that Trump's refusal to accept global warming will have a huge impact on Tesla individually. However, if his intent is to open up drilling in federal lands and add more oil to the global market, then oil will be forced lower and cheap gas will definitely deter many people from going electric. This will have an impact on the broader EV market. However, that being said, driving a Tesla Model S has been a unique experience for me and many others and the gas savings is near the bottom of my list of why I love my Tesla.

Mel. | November 9, 2016

tranhv68,
Nice post

EaglesPDX | November 9, 2016

@Mel "As the father of the modern electri car Bush pushed thru and signed th $7,500.00 tax credit that we have all used.."

By that odd standard, it would actually be Senate Majority leader Harry Reid who would be the "father of the modern electric car" though you mean the "father of the EV tax credit". GOP defeated the EV tax credit in the House so Reid used a legislative loophole to add to Bush's economic recovery bill when Bush and GOP crashed the economy again for the Great Recession. Bush signed it to try and lessen the economy crash from his failed policies, the EV tax credit was a Democratic sweetner added to the bill over Bush and GOP objections. The Bush II Reaganomics Great Recession was so bad the GOP and Bush passed the bill anway.

Fair to call Elon Musk the father of the modern EV. Prior to Musk they were golf cars.

GOP will likely kill the EV tax credit. Can you name one GOP Congressman or President-Elect who supports it?

codyb12889 | November 9, 2016

There is already plenty of demand out there for BEVs specifically cheaper models like the Model 3. This is thanks to lower overall ownership cost and convenience of not having to stop and fill up every few days. Gas prices going up or down will not change this fact. Government incentives specifically on Tesla will likely run their course before they are removed thanks to sales numbers.

What I am very concerned with is government over sight on Autonomous Vehicles. Our already obstructionist government will jam up things in this area even more until the likes of Ford, GM, and so on start lining up to fill the pockets of the disaster areas which are congress and senate and then we have to hope that something agreeable to the president is what makes it to his desk.

Long story short, Autonomous Vehicles likely just got at least 4 years further away in my opinion. I am sure the people killed by drunk drivers who could have been in a self driving Uber for next to nothing, the people killed because they or someone else fell asleep at the wheel, the motorcycle riders run over by inability to check blind spots, or the multitude of people killed or injured by other avoidable situations will surely appreciate the fact that Republicans lining their pockets comes ahead of allowing life saving technology to be properly regulated by a functional government.

Here is to at least 2 years of trickle down obstructionism and stagnation. Why would a country such as ours want to make advancements?

EmpiricalAudio | November 9, 2016

Several European countries now have initiatives or laws to limit ICEs, so Tesla will have a market. If a lot of ICE companies move back to the US to build more large SUVs and trucks for the Trump supporters, and the US withdraws from the Paris accords, these US companies will not develop EVs. The regulations for mileage may be rolled back and EV incentives eliminated, except for maybe California, where local pollution is a big problem.

carlk | November 9, 2016

I agree with @EmpiricalAudio Europe and to some extend China and Asia plus the few deep blue states will continue to promote EV and provide Tesla with enough market to grow. The rest of US will just become a backward country and laughing stock of the world.

EaglesPDX | November 9, 2016

@EmpiricalAudio "these US companies will not develop EVs."

They will because they are international companies and European and Asian markets are as big as US market for EV's and more encouraging. The US is so backward that the president-elect doesn't believe in science, much less climate science.

Chevy for example has an overseas market and brand for what is the Chevy Bolt in the US. US won't have the Federal Tax credit or EV highway or pollution/oil use regs to push EV's and 21st century sustainable economy but it has other markets it has to have an EV option and beat out EV competition.

A big question will be how much the GOP will attack CA's and the other ZEV state's progressive EV regs and rewards.

Until the GOP makes a run at them ZEV states will provide a base for EV sales which, including overseas markets will keep Ford and GM moving forward on EV, hybrids and plug-ins.

Dramsey | November 9, 2016

A big question will be how much the GOP will attack CA's and the other ZEV state's progressive EV regs and rewards.

I think you are probably overreacting: state incentives for EVs are not something which the Federal government controls. I suppose they could try to pass a law against it, but I kinda doubt they will.

EaglesPDX | November 9, 2016

@Dramsey "I think you are probably overreacting: state incentives for EVs are not something which the Federal government controls."

When CA first created auto standards higher than Federal government, there were several lawsuits by auto corporations and GOP Federal governments to claim CA had no right to impose stricter regulations.

Climate science is a issue for the GOP mainstream the way heliocentric astronomy was an issue for 16th century version of the GOP. Denial of climate science is a religious issue, a matter of faith, with them as it is in this extreme GOP Congress and President who will likely go after the ZEV states.

So we can count on hostility to EV's from the Trump admin.

Dramsey | November 9, 2016

We shall see.

SCCRENDO | November 9, 2016

Unfortunately waiting to see how bad things get is not the spectator sport I enjoy

RedShift | November 9, 2016

@sccrendo

*chuckle* you don't have to wait long. Elon's tweeted that a climate skeptic has been chosen by Trump to lead the EPA transition.

Yeah, this guy is going to do nothing bad to EVs.

Dramsey | November 10, 2016

Unfortunately waiting to see how bad things get is not the spectator sport I enjoy.

It's what some of us have been doing for the last eight years, so suck it up.

In the meantime the stock market has been doing so well-- despite Krugman's assertion that the stock market will never recover from this election-- that I'm considering changing my 90D order to a P100D. I have until Monday. Choices, choices...

mille | November 10, 2016

I think the automakers will benefit greatly from a Trump administration. The oil industry will do everything in it's power to slow down Tesla's growth and other automakers will certainly slow down EV development. That's what they want anyway. Not a lot of folks are as passionate as we are about EV's. Maybe Trump will be creative and impose a special taxe on EV owners. Why? To make Tesla's life miserable and slow down the EV acceptance. Don't underestimate the power of the big oil and natural gas industries.

Mel. | November 10, 2016

Mille,
Did you consider the impact of Saudi Arabia
We are self sufficient in natural gas. Why are we importing it?

A different take is that Trump wants things made in the United States.. he should love Tesla. I never heard him say an unkind word about Tesla..

SO | November 10, 2016

I honestly cannot fathom how people like Dramsey say that the last 8 years have been so horrible. Evidently me and every location I traveled to in the US has somehow been an amazing exception to what Dramsey is saying.

RedShift | November 10, 2016

One tanked the economy and started bad expensive wars. Another rebounded it, didn't start bad expensive wars, tried to make ACA work, (though he didn't succeed arguably).

So let's see. What could be the issue here... what...

Oh, I got it. One didn't look, talk, or belong to the same party like the other!

grega | November 10, 2016

Trump likes US made, but doesn't believe in AGW. Elon has made a point of making good cars rather than "Eco cars", so both are good for Tesla.

I think it's unlikely Trump will support government supplied charging stations.

I also suspect he's against robotic factories.... while Elon thinks it's time the world moved to much more leisure time for everyone.

Mel. | November 10, 2016

Greta,
Tesla does not support government supplied charging stations. They have deployed super chargers for Tesla vehicles throughout the country.
Trump agrees with Tesla .

SUN 2 DRV | November 10, 2016

Since Tesla itself and its largest customer base are both in California it's interesting to note this Joint Statement from California Legislative Leaders on Result of Presidential Election.

http://sd24.senate.ca.gov/news/2016-11-09-joint-statement-california-leg...

UnshodBob | November 10, 2016

@SUN 2 DRV - a "joint" statement. I get it. :)

grega | November 10, 2016

@Mel, yes that's right. Tesla has their own chargers. I don't see Trump being bad for Tesla as they're an American company employing Americans and selling a good quality car, and have their own charging network.

In terms of Tesla internationally, that's an unknown. If the US wants to tax imports then it'll be reciprocal, so price of Tesla's overseas will go up if trade deals change.

In terms of EVs as the thread asked, in the USA they'll certainly have less encouragement, no chance of Federal subsidies, may lose the charging network, imports may go up in price etc. Not good for EVs in the US - though hopefully most of the states with EV incentives will continue to do what they do.

Al1 | November 10, 2016

Elon Mask perfectly fits the slogan of making America great again. Among very few by the way. It is a strong company because of excellent products and excellent execution not because of government handouts. Sure thing, billions into charging infrastructure sounded attractive, but most of that would have gone to cars like Leaf and Bolt (and likely hydrogen). Besides there is up to 2 billion from VW and not from the government.

As much as I would like to give Obama administration credit for talking the talk I haven't seen them walking the walk. That said this administration can still come up with something that will stick around in the last few months.

Al1 | November 10, 2016

Like some last minute credit incentives that will send sales through the roof, because Trump will for sure repeal it.

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