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How many Model X do you think Tesla has already manufactured without reporting?

How many Model X do you think Tesla has already manufactured without reporting?

CNBC stated Tesla delivered 11,500 Model S in second quarter.

How many Model X bodies in white or partially completed Model X did they build in 2Q 2015, which then will get customized and delivered to signature reservation holders later this year?

Moved to Model X forum.

beady | 2 July 2015

That number makes the other companies sales look poor and puts this article in doubt (they estimated 6950 for first 5 months):

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2015/07/01/hybrid-ev-sal...

Mathew98 | 2 July 2015

And the stock is only up 10 bucks pre market?

Bighorn | 2 July 2015

+280

tes-s | 2 July 2015

Very nice!! Biggest quarter yet.

Does that put production pretty much flat from the beginning of the year at about 1000/wk?

Mathew98 | 2 July 2015

TM has to hit 14K+ for Q3 and 18K for Q4 to hit the year end target of 55K.

Benz | 2 July 2015

Total H1 2015:

10,045 + 11,507 = 21,552

In six months almost as many Tesla Model S deliveries as in full year 2013.

That's significant growth.

Benz | 2 July 2015

Total Tesla Model S deliveries before 1st July 2015:

78,834

The 80,000th Tesla Model S will be delivered in July 2015.

sbeggs | 2 July 2015

Questions:

If Tesla delivered 11,500 Model S cars, how many more did they manufacture and not deliver to customers making final payment...thus they will be ready for delivery in 3Q?

And

How many Model X bodies in white or partially completed Model X did they build in 2Q 2015, which then will get customized and delivered to signature reservation holders later this year?

georgehawley.fl.us | 2 July 2015

They are building close to 1,000 per week with a goal of exceeding that number.
They are delivering maybe about 885 per week including maybe two weeks of production from the previous quarter. 13 x 885 = 11,505.

If they get up to 950 Model S cars per week in 3Q plus maybe 500 Model X, they will hit 13,000, about 35,000 over three quarters. If they deliver 7,000 Model X plus 13,000 Model S in Q4, they will hit the 55,000 target.
It's doable barring X hiccups.

tes-s | 2 July 2015

@georgehawley - weren't they at that production level at the end of 2014?

Red Sage ca us | 2 July 2015

Some have been reporting Production of Model S at ~1,200 per week for several months. There may still be some rides 'on the water' for European or Asian delivery. I would not doubt that 55,000 Production is managed during 2015 for Model S alone, though Model X Deliveries will also be needed to crest that amount in sales.

NomoDinos | 2 July 2015

Uh-oh, edging closer to the 200k mark. Might have to get an X for the wife earlier than I thought if I want the federal rebate!

jordanrichard | 2 July 2015

Interesting that he made no mention of Tesla in that article.

tes-s | 2 July 2015

@Red - wouldn't rides 'on the water' be relatively constant one quarter to the next?

I'm guessing they are still around 1,000 per week production. 13,000 produced and 11,500 delivered. 1,500 for demo/loaner cars.

AmpedRealtor | 2 July 2015

@ nomoDinos,

The federal tax credit will expire after Tesla sells 200,000 cars domestically. All figures being quoted here are worldwide.

Ankit Mishra | 2 July 2015

This is good news. Tesla is heading towards its annual goal. This will lighten the gloom after recent Spacex mishap.

TwinMaTesla | 2 July 2015

@beady, Wondering why the paper would misrepresent Tesla sales so extremely? Oh, _Detroit_ news....

donaldmeacham1 | 2 July 2015

I guess Mr. Sheperdson hasn't yet been introduced to Tesla Automotive. Too bad.

EdwardG.NO2CO2 | 2 July 2015

Detroit news did publish Tesla sales results in a separate article. Got the closing stock price wrong though.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2015/07/02/tesla-record-...

georgehawley.fl.us | 2 July 2015

@tes and @Red: When on a factory tour in Fremont in early May, we were told that they were striving to reach a production level of 1,000 per week, implying that they weren't there yet. If they are still production rather than demand limited then the 885 "average" production level may indicate that they are close to, if not exceeding, the 1,000 target now. The X body line goes into operation "soon". Elon has said that the planned combined S and X production rate goal for the end of 2015 is 2,000 per week. If they come close to that, I'm thinking that the 55,000 number is achievable, again barring X hiccups.

tes-s | 2 July 2015

So they plan on more than doubling production in less than 6 months, after leaving it flat for the past 6 months?

Guess it is good the X has been delayed - it seems they are still having trouble ramping up production.

FlatSix911 | 2 July 2015

Glad I could do my part as one of the 2Q15 deliveries!
I also took the factory tour in June and saw a lot of activity going on behind the construction curtains for the new Model X production line.

Red Sage ca us | 2 July 2015

President georgehawley, I concur.

tes-s, perhaps.

I have theorized before that shutting down Fremont to reconfigure last year seemed rather... lackluster. That is, they shut down the facility, and set up the whole place again, just to go from ~700 units per week to ~1,000. I'm no production design engineer, but that doesn't strike me as a proper use of resources.

I mean, if you are going to plan to shut down for a week, and end up shutting down for two, wouldn't it make sense to get the most out if it? In other words, why settle for a ~50% improvement, en route to doubling that total Capacity 18 months later, when you can instead install a system capable of 4-to-5 times the workload?

What if the only reason the Fremont Production line is at ~1,000 units per week annualized Capacity, and moving to ~2,000 by the end of 2015 is that is all that is required to handle baseline minimal projections of Generation II output. That works out to 50,000 each of Model S and Model X, 100,000 combined, per year. What if Fremont is already technically capable of 4,000 units per week, has been since July/August 2014, but Generation II vehicles are not meant to sell in those quantities... yet.

I believe the Model X will be very popular, at least in the US. If it maintains a market trend, outselling Model S by at least 2:1, and possibly as much as 3:1, then a theoretical maximum Generation II Capacity of 200,000 units would be very welcome. And if Model X demand remains at the officially projected 1:1 ratio with Model S, there's no harm done. That will just leave more room for the Model ≡ expansion.

True, quality control is paramount at this juncture. It is imperative that a close eye be held to all aspects of Production as it ramps up further. Even so, it is always better to have Capacity that is unneeded rather than need it with no way to get it. That is, after all, why a company that built ~2,500 cars over three years purchased a factory that had approached 500,000 units per year in times past.

carlk | 2 July 2015

The question in the very beginning was whether MS sales trend will follow the conventional auto model, where sales peak at the first or second new model year, or the Prius model, where sales continue to increase for many years to come. It's pretty obvious now that it is following the Prius model. Like Prius in the early days MS has many detractors and ignorers. This is actually a good thing since these people represent a large pool of potential future buyers when they eventually figured things out.

tes-s | 3 July 2015

@carlk - what is the sales trend for the MS in the US?

They don't seem to report sales by country (or region), but I think it has been pretty steady at around 18,000 per year. Maybe a little lower in 2014 due to production constraints, and a little higher in 2015 as they catch up with production and with the introduction of D, autopilot, and 70D.

Globally, they have now opened most major markets so there won't be significant increases in sales from opening new markets. China is still underperforming, but seems to be on the mend - could drive a large increase in sales.

I'm with Tesla on the MX projections - about the same as MS. Yes, SUVs seem to outsell sedans, but I just don't see a huge difference between the S and X. 100,000 combined units annually seems like a reasonable projection.

Upside: MX:MS is more like 2:1 or 3:1, not 1:1.
Downside: MX sales cannibalize MS sales.

I do expect sales to be maintained through innovation - I don't think innovation (D and autopilot) was a one-time event for Tesla. Larger battery, second-generation autopilot hardware, faster charging, and I'm sure many other innovations will be coming. Then M3...

sbeggs | 3 July 2015

Everyone,

How many X bodies do you think they have already built?

Red Sage ca us | 3 July 2015

Hmmm...

42!

What do I win?

georgehawley.fl.us | 3 July 2015

@Red: you might be joking but 42 sounds like a reasonable number of prototypes for all forms of testing.

As far as production capacity is concerned, last year I think they shut down to augment or otherwise reorganize the S production line. In the latter part of 2014 they began installing a boatload of additional robots for the X body line. I believe that they have a single line to build the frames and then split into two body lines now. That's what it looked like. When we were there, the X robots looked to be set up but not operational. By now they must be getting programmed and adjusted to meet tolerances. Tools have are probably in place for stamping out X body parts. They may have begun fabricating X body parts depending on the availability of the big stamping machines that also knock out S parts. They may have already begun to build up an initial stock of X sub-assemblies and contractor supplied parts.

When the X body line is fully operational and up to speed (October?), they should be approaching the 2,000 per month end of year target. If X demand, especially with the weight of a big stack of reservations that turn into orders, exceeds S demand, I think that will just mean that the two cars will experience different order to delivery intervals with the X line running maxed out and the S line operating at a rate driven by current orders.

Captain_Zap | 3 July 2015

@georgehawley

Did your NDA expire?

The second line is supposed to produce ~3000 vehicles at full production. The current line is supposed to do 1000-1200 at its current rate. The lines shut down for maintenance at the first of each quarter. Unfortunately, the old Model S line isn't available to see at the factory during tours because it runs prototypes, Alpha and test vehicles now. It would be interesting to compare the old line to the new line.

The ramp up of the new S/X line will be interesting to watch. The second Model S line got up to speed quickly. The old original line was slow to ramp in the beginning for the Signature Models. Once the Signatures were delivered, it was like they flipped a switch and they really started rolling out the door and it took everyone by surprise. Elon called it an "exponential ramp" and compared it to just "flipping a switch". That is exactly what happened.

In the beginning, Elon test drove every single Signature car. Later he test drove several days a week then it dwindled to a couple days a week, once a week then spot checks.

Red Sage ca us | 3 July 2015

E-X-cellent.

georgehawley.fl.us | 3 July 2015

@Captain: I didn't say when...

Maybe Elon could be persuaded to autograph the "Signature" models.:-))

Unable to get any Signature information today as Tesla is shuttered.

NomoDinos | 3 July 2015

AR - ah, thanks for the clarification. Back to 2018, then!

Grinnin'.VA | 3 July 2015

@ Red Sage ca us | July 2, 2015

I believe the Model X will be very popular, at least in the US. If it maintains a market trend, outselling Model S by at least 2:1, and possibly as much as 3:1, ...

You may well be right.
However, I think the ratio of MX to MS will depend a lot on:

1. How the MX's range, acceleration, handling, etc. compare with the MS,
2. What battery pack options Tesla offers for the MX, and
3. How much premium price Tesla charges for MX compared to similarly equipped MS cars.

Given that Tesla has released very little information about the MX, my magic crystal ball shows a very hazy picture of future MX sales vs MS sales.

Mathew98 | 3 July 2015

@Grinnin' - May I suggest using windex on your crystal ball to clear that haze?

Answers to your questions.

1) 90%, 95%, & 100%.
2) Same as MS.
3) Same profit margin as MS. Ergo 0% premium over MS.

My projections are almost always correct. @Brian H can attests to my 110% scientifically proven SWAG method!

JayInJapan | 3 July 2015

At the shareholders' meeting, EM said they were still tweaking some features in Model X, like the passenger doors. Once the design is finished, we'll see MX in the design center.

FlatSix911 | 3 July 2015

Keep in mind that US buyers will favor the Model X over the Model S by a 2:1 margin ... check out the stats for the Porsche SUVs.

http://press.porsche.com/news/images/sales-may-2015.gif

Mathew98 | 4 July 2015

MX will be the ultimate soccer mom vehicle. Then the hubby would take over without even asking...

tes-s | 4 July 2015

It will be interesting to see the ratio of MX:MS. At 1.5 to 2x the price of the Porsche, I'm not sure the same ratios will hold.

Grinnin'.VA | 4 July 2015

@ Mathew98 | July 3, 2015

@Grinnin' - May I suggest using windex on your crystal ball to clear that haze?

My projections are almost always correct. @Brian H can attests to my 110% scientifically proven SWAG method!

Thanks for confirming my suspicion that you have no intent to engage in an adult dialog here. IMO, that partially explains your many outrageous posts on Tesla's forums.

Out4aDuck | 4 July 2015

Not many people weighing in on Q2 production, so I'll take a stab. There were about 12250 VIN's assigned in March, April, and May. This should define the upper bound, since not all VIN's get translated into cars. I'll estimate 12000 for the quarter.

tes-s | 4 July 2015

So still a little less than 1000/wk? Isn't that where they were at the end of 2014?

sbeggs | 4 July 2015

@Out4aDuck,

Sounds reasonable, thanks.

How many test Model X produced...? I can't remember where I heard that they had 400 test mules produced and operating.

bonaire | 4 July 2015

@Out4aDuck - I think Vins were a little higher (Mar-May), I saw 12696 based on postings at the end of each month. Let's say they do pre-assign some for inventory or whatever, then production in Q2 would be 12,000, or less, like you said. Just about 12 weeks of production since April 4-10 seems to have been a factory slowdown week to start the quarter. In the Q1 customer letter, it said: "In Q2, we expect to produce about 12,500 vehicles, representing a 12% sequential increase." 12,000 is "about 12,500" so that is not far off. They do have to manage inventory and expenses and should not go crazy building far more cars than sold.

Mathew98 | 4 July 2015

@Grinnin' - Please provide evidence that any of my answers to your questions are invalid. There have been many threads and articles which can back my answers but I don't have the time to debate the merit of each one.

Please highlight any of my answer to anything that I ever posted to you that is proven invalid and I will buy a bagel from @JT and eat it too!

TwinMaTesla | 4 July 2015

Presumably, when ramping up 70D production, there was a bit of a factory slowdown, which might have depressed the numbers early in the quarter.

tes-s | 4 July 2015

Is there a shutdown in July or over the summer?

sbeggs | 4 July 2015

Yes, but what if there a giant conspiracy by ICE manufacturers to induce suppliers to slow down delivering subassemblies and parts to rival Tesla???

It would only take the absence of one key part.

Out4aDuck | 5 July 2015

@bonaire,

The last VIN I saw assigned in February was 79690. The last I saw assigned in May was 91949. Your numbers may be somewhat different, but it should lead us to pretty much the same conclusion.

Red Sage ca us | 5 July 2015

Capacity - theoretical maximum number of units that an be built

Production - actual number of units that are built

Deliveries - final number of units that reach Customers

sabbia | 5 July 2015

I thought Red said 42 factorial. That would be nice. Explains the share price jump.

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