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Model 3 should be developed in parallel with Model X

Model 3 should be developed in parallel with Model X

In my opinion, the development of the Model 3 should be done in parallel with the development of the Model X, instead of waiting until the Model X is released, particularly in light of the recently announced production delays in the Model X.

petochok | 19 November 2014

How do you know it isn't being developed at the moment?
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but Elon recently mentioned something to the tune of "Model 3 styling is basically complete". Does this mean we'll see it displayed within a few months? Probably not, but to say that Model 3 is not being developed in parallel with Model X would be false.

plafor | 19 November 2014

It's not with the Model X that the Model 3 needs to be synchronized but with the gigafactory. The Model S will be too expensive to sell before the gigafactory is in operation and Tesla will loose money if the Model 3 is not ready when they open the gigafactory.

Red Sage ca us | 19 November 2014

Elon has already stated that Tesla Motors cannot reach their goals by being a serial manufacturer that can only manage to build and market one car at a time. He wishes to banish any cricism of their being a boutique or niche player in automobile manufacturing. Thus, the Model S and Model X will be manufactured at once.

Elon has said that he would like to introduce a new car every year once they can. I believe that would involve parallel development, especially among Generation III vehicles on the horizon. So it is certain the Model ≡ has begun the design process already, in parallel to Model X.

It is because of this strategy that I believe the Model ≡ will be the first platform to be unveiled with multiple configurations at once, at least three of them. The sedan would be released to start in 2017. The crossover or wagon would follow the next year. A 2+2 sporthatch or coupe would come next perhaps. Then maybe a nice cabriolet, followed by the introduction of the pickup truck my Brother covets...

David N | 19 November 2014

Elon has said in interviews that Giga factory and Model 3 are all about timing.
Model 3 demand means that it will need battery packs from the GF. Teslas goal is not to have either one manufacturing before the other.
No sense having a 5 billion dollar plant producing packs but no car to put them in, or having Model 3 coming off the line with no battery packs to put in them.
Elton said the timing of the GF and Model 3 are crucial to Teslas success.

blue adept | 19 November 2014

With their recent factory retrofitting and upgrade they should be able to ramp up production of any of their models:

And, perhaps, meet their production and model introduction goals.

3seeker | 20 November 2014

If they could then they should. I want to get the Model 3 sooner than later! Feeling a little more anxious now because of the Model X delay, which may consequently result in a Model 3 delay.

blue adept | 20 November 2014

I think that they should first focus on meeting current commitment obligations before branching out to encompass the production of the Model X alongside the Model S, you know, just to keep those desirable of ownership happy.

Red Sage ca us | 20 November 2014

Development... not production.

.

y3fj4

blue adept | 21 November 2014

Developed...? YES! Produced...? No!

Much the same process as is involved with the Model X being developed in conjunction with the production of the Model S, the M3 should, IMHO, be developed in conjunction with the Model X's production to maintain quality standards.

Brian H | 21 November 2014

Despite best efforts of some, TM is not suffering from lack of happy MS owners. MX owners will just add to the list, followed by others as fast as TM can design and make their god-chariots.

Red Sage ca us | 21 November 2014

'Chariots... of the GODS!'

Drawn by Luck Dragons and fueled with Unicorn Happiness.

T≡SLA

ian t.wa.us | 21 November 2014

Model X is being developed and produced alongside the S because underneath it's the same car! The Model 3 is, however, very different. It will require a completely new chassis (aka skateboard) and Tesla is running a tight ship as far as personnel. Patience.

Cheers!

petochok | 21 November 2014

This is why they are able to say "Model 3 styling is basically complete". Developing a clay, or a virtual Model 3 body doesn't stand in the way of MS/MX development/production as both of them are way past that stage at this point.

Red Sage ca us | 21 November 2014

Franz & Co in Hawthorne have not been sitting on their hands since January 2012.

carlgo | 22 November 2014

Since Tesla is starting from scratch it would be hard to believe that they didn't figure on using as few different parts for as many different models as possible. Same for the use of the assembly lines and at the battery factories.

In line with this, I was wondering about the possibility of using the same exterior sized battery for the S/X and forthcoming Model 3s, based on the assumption that the 3 would be roughly the same size as a BMW 3 Series:

Model S length 196, wheelbase 116 and track 65.
BMW 3 Series 163 110 60.

Could an S battery physically fit the smaller size car? I think someone on this forum once said they could. I don't know if they use the same case on the Toyota RAV4 and the Mercedes Model B.

Nanana26 | 22 November 2014

I agree with the OP. They're missing out on a massive market.

BMW has the new i3.
VW has the new e-golf.

Tesla's model 3 will be extremely late to market. By then everyone else will have already a new model out.

petochok | 22 November 2014

Let's call it being fashionably late. Someone needs to show the i3's and e-golfs how to properly enter the ballroom. This wouldn't be the case if Model 3 was just another 80 mile runabout though.

Grinnin'.VA | 22 November 2014

@ carlgo | November 22, 2014

Since Tesla is starting from scratch ...

I think Tesla started "from scratch" over a decade ago. IMO, they did a rather splendid job of it: They created the first new viable auto manufacturer in over half a century.

I was wondering about the possibility of using the same exterior sized battery for the S/X and forthcoming Model 3s ...

No. It would be impractical to keep the same skateboard while reducing the weight and costs enough to cut the price to $35k + options.

Could an S battery physically fit the smaller size car?

No. Have you visited a Tesla store,? Looked at the skateboard and sat in an MS? The MS longer, wider and heavier than any small sized car.

@Fruity | November 22, 2014

They're missing out on a massive market.

Tesla's model 3 will be extremely late to market. By then everyone else will have already a new model out.

Yes. However, having a new model out doesn't necessarily win the competition. When M3 is delivered, it will probably sell like the MS does: Made to order; several weeks to several months order-to-delivery waits; factory busy making as many cars as they can. Hell, anti-Tesla politicians in most of the states of the U.S. can't even make a serious dent in Tesla's growth. Neither can the established 'major' auto manufacturers.

I think it will take quite a few years of 50% per year growth for Tesla to sell as many cars as Toyota, GM, Ford, VW, etc. But that's what I see happening. Tesla is at least 5 years ahead of their competition in developing BEVs. I'd guess that some of the smarter mainline auto manufactures will notice this when they start seeing their sales declining while Tesla's sales keep on growing. But by then they will be hopelessly behind.

My magic crystal balls shows Tesla winning the first decade of BEV competition by a wide margin.

Go Tesla!

Brian H | 22 November 2014

And as repeatedly emphasized by Straub and Musk, they're expanding into a huge global market where even a 1% of yearly turnover is millions of cars.

3seeker | 22 November 2014

@Fruity

The i3 and e-Golf ought to be compared to the Leaf or Focus Electric - a bunch of short range Tesla wannabes. It takes a lot of preparation to create a real EV for the masses; and those who wait for it will be greatly rewarded.

Red Sage ca us | 22 November 2014

The Model S is slightly wider than its contemporaries. The battery pack does not actually fill the entire wheelbase, despite being located between the axles.

Thus, the Model ≡ will be slightly wider than A4, ATS, CLA, & 3-Series. Due to the electric drivetrain, it can have a longer wheelbase than is found on those other cars, eve if it has a similar overall length.

Therefore the Model ≡ can possibly use the same shape & size of battery pack as Model S or Model X. The reverse is also true. A new battery pack design for Model ≡ could conceivably be retrofitted to the Generation II vehicles.

petochok | 23 November 2014

Isn't there a possibility of using a different form of cell packaging on M3? Is everyone absolutely sure it will stick to 18650 type cells for its pack? If not, then there is no need to use the same large and bulky pack shape currently in use on the S.
Even if the M3 were come with an 85kWh pack, it wouldn't take up as much real estate as the current pack of the same capacity does due to higher cell density.

Iowa92x | 23 November 2014

The S 60 pack will be base battery on Gen 3. The D high efficiency motor will be reused on the X and 3.

petochok | 23 November 2014

The motor, yes. The battery, no. I don't believe the same physical pack would fit without affecting the smaller car's front and rear crumple zones. The pack is simply too wide for the car to be any narrower than the MS. And let's face it, the MS is already noticeably wider than most people initially expect.

Benz | 23 November 2014

@ Red Sage

"Therefore the Model ≡ can possibly use the same shape & size of battery pack as Model S or Model X. The reverse is also true. A new battery pack design for Model ≡ could conceivably be retrofitted to the Generation II vehicles."

That would be really nice.

Though this would be very practical too, as of now I just don't think that this will be possible. I don't think that the two different skateboard platforms will both be able to use the same battery packs. But I could be wrong. I guess we will just have to be patient to find out.

Brian H | 23 November 2014

Large and bulky? Per kWh capacity, the MS battery is small and unobtrusive. Batteries in other EVs, even the Roadster, eat storage and passenger space.

Iowa92x | 23 November 2014

The Gen 3 can reduce cell count and raised cell mah to hit 60 kwh and smaller form factor.

petochok | 23 November 2014

Yes Brian, compared to Model 3, the MS battery pack is too wide and too long.

Red Sage ca us | 24 November 2014

Stop by the BMW website. Take a look at dimensions for the 3-Series and compare them to the 7-Series. Then compare the 7-Series to Model S dimensions.

blue adept | 24 November 2014

@Red Sage ca us

I think Brian was referring to this:

blue adept | 24 November 2014

@Fruity

Tesla's model 3 will be extremely late to market.

I believe that you've overlooked the fact that it is Tesla Motors who not only devised the "market", but are the ones defining it...!

For this reason I find your perspective on the matter a bit myopic.

TeoTeslaFan | 24 November 2014

The Fremont factory has a capacity of 500,000 cars a year and Elon said they will restore the factory to its former capacity. When that happens, which of the following two options would you prefer?

Option 1:
100,000 Model S
100,000 Model X
300,000 Model 3
Total: 500,000 cars/year

Option 2:
200,000 Model S
200,000 Model X
100,000 Model 3
Total: 500,000 cars/year

I would even prefer Option 2 because financially it is much better for Tesla and it is also better for EV adoption because it puts more pressure on other car makers. Selling 300,000 Model 3 cars a year hardly changes anything in the automotive industry that makes 90 million petrol cars a year. Year to date production number after 2014 Q2 is 45,212,661 (source). End of year production is expected to be 90.4 million cars in 2014.

Elon said other car makers seem to make the least number of electric cars required by government regulations. He said the only thing that will force them is competitive pressure. If they see they are going to go out of business if they don't go electric, then they will go electric (Source watch from 1h11m55s.)

For example Porsche doesn't make a car that will compete with Model 3. But they do make cars that compete against the Model S and X. In fact their best selling model is the Cayenne SUV. In 2013 they sold more Cayennes than other models combined.

Source: PDF File

300,000 Model 3 doesn't create competitive pressure because the market in that price range is huge. However for Model S and X the market is much smaller. Therefore Tesla can create a lot more pressure if they manage high Model S and X sales. Tesla should focus on releasing the Model X and then increasing the sales numbers of Model S/X. They are already doing this as fast as they can. The Gigafactory takes time. They already said in 2016 they will use Gigafactory batteries for Model S and X (Tesla 10Q document 7 Nov 2014). This should be a warning to companies like Porsche. The 2015 Porsche Cayenne price range is $61,700 - $113,600. It is in direct competition to the Model X. Until 2017 Tesla is focusing on Model S and X which is the right thing to do.

Benz | 25 November 2014

@ Teo

What you say is correct.

The annual production and sales numbers of every Tesla EV model (including Model S + Model X) will rise every subsequent year (compared to the annual sales numbers of the prior year).

Delivery numbers in the coming 6 years:

2015
Tesla Model S: 60.000
Tesla Model X: 20.000

2016
Tesla Model S: 90.000
Tesla Model X: 90.000

2017
Tesla Model S: 140.000
Tesla Model X: 180.000
Tesla Model 3: 100.000

2018
Tesla Model S: 180.000
Tesla Model X: 240.000
Tesla Model 3: 300.000

2019
Tesla Model S: 220.000
Tesla Model X: 300.000
Tesla Model 3: 500.000

2020
Tesla Model S: 260.000
Tesla Model X: 360.000
Tesla Model 3: 900.000
Tesla Model ?: .......

It's important to keep a healthy balance between the weekly rate of new orders on the one hand, and the weekly production rate on the other hand. They need to be able to satisfy demand within a certain timeframe (production capacity). They must make sure that their customers will not have to wait too long for the delivery of their cars. The factory upgrade in July 2014 was very important.

Model ☰ | 25 November 2014

@Teo
Option 1:
100,000 Model S
100,000 Model X
300,000 Model 3
Total: 500,000 cars/year

Option 2:
200,000 Model S
200,000 Model X
100,000 Model 3
Total: 500,000 cars/year

I would even prefer Option 2 because financially it is much better for Tesla and it is also better for EV adoption because it puts more pressure on other car makers.

You'r right in that it would be better for Tesla to sell more of Model S/X than Model 3, but...

I don't wont to be a "naysayer" but there is a limit of how many cars in this price-segment that can be sold. Yes, temporary ut might be higher, example right after the introduction of Model X, or a face-lift of Model S, but you cant plan on this in the long run.

How big a marked will this be in the long run? I'm no fortuneteller, then something certainly I can so clearly did not say, and it can hardly anyone else either. However guessing it will be in the range 100k to 250k for Model S + X in combination. So my "gut feeling" tells me your "Option 1" is closest to the actual marked.

About the "300,000 Model 3 doesn't create competitive pressure because the market in that price range is huge" - yes, true. But we know Tesla will build a factory in China, and my best guess is that it will produce only Gen-III cars - Model 3 and later Model Y or whatever it will be called. And it's reasonable to think they will start a factory in Europa later, and I think this too will produce only the Gen-III cars.

So, we will end up with 300k from Fremont + whatever is produced in China + whatever is produced in Europa (+ whatever is produced in India? + whatever is produced in a second USA factory - and/or Mexico?). I think this will create competitive pressure on the marked segment Gen-III will enter.

Btw:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShJuKTmtHjY&feature=youtu.be
Here - at about 21 minutes in - JB Straubel is talking about producing 700k cars in 2019. I think he is actually saying it is only Gen-III cars, but I'm a bit unsure if he really is talking about Gen-II + Gen-III? But it's anyway more then the 500k everyone else is talking about.

Red Sage ca us | 25 November 2014

I remind you all once again that in 2013 JB Straubel noted their intent to reach a 700,00 unit capacity at Fremont alone by 2019. In 2014 JB confirmed that 500,000 of vehicles produced at Fremont in 2020 would only be Model ≡.

Thus, the goal for combined sales of Model S and Model X is 200,000 produced at Fremont. As I believe the Model X will sell at a 3:1 ratio compared to Model S, that means 150,000 Model X and 50,000 Model S per year. With a little bit of wiggle room, of course.

I say this to make it clear Tesla Motors intends to make far more than 500,000 cars per year -- just at Fremont. This doesn't include future manufacturing capacity from Asia or Europe. Please think globally when considering Tesla Motors' future plans. It isn't only about the US.

blue adept | 26 November 2014

@cmcnestt

Audi is already under the VW Group banner, along with Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT and Škoda.

Just saying.

johnwladd | 27 November 2014

I think by 2022 Tesla will be selling about 2 million vehicles per year. There is a take-off point with a new technology, where Tesla will likely be firing up multiple factories and making the current projections of 500,000 to 700,000 vehicles per year look conservative. Just as the Model S/D is overwhelmingly superior to Lexus/BMW cars, the Model 3 will wipe out any competitors in the affordable space. I don't see how companies like GM or Toyota can survive. Likely, Tesla will be introducing a truck to wipe out the F-series. The high-torque of electric vehicles will prove superior in this market segment.

Grinnin'.VA | 28 November 2014

@ johnwladd | November 27, 2014

I think by 2022 Tesla will be selling about 2 million vehicles per year.

Only if they build a few more gigafactories by then.

Go Tesla!

Model ☰ | 28 November 2014

@Grinnin'
Only if they build a few more gigafactories by then.

Yes, but what will they do? Make more "gigafactories" and car factories, or just a "megagiga" factory with both battery and car productions under the same roof?

jstack6 | 28 November 2014

The model III will not be the same material (Aluminum) , frame or share many other parts as the model S and X. I think they are very busy with the D and X for now not to mention the Roadster upgrade and self driving.

They will get to it when the time is right and do a great job on it. The battery factory is a key to that timing.

Tiebreaker | 28 November 2014

Model 3 has to be already deep into development. It is a question of timing. Similar to what Elon Musk said about any new battery technology: if they don't have it working in the lab today, it will be late for the gigafactory, because of the time it takes to roll it into production. If Model 3 is not being worked on right now, it will be late for the gigafactory too.

Grinnin'.VA | 28 November 2014

@ Model ☰ | November 28, 2014

... but what will they do? Make more "gigafactories" and car factories, or just a "megagiga" factory with both battery and car productions under the same roof?

Interesting question. I have no special insight, but I think they will most likely add gigafactories and manufacturing plants, roughly cloning the current factory and the initial GF.

Go Tesla!

Model ☰ | 28 November 2014

@Grinnin'
Interesting question. I have no special insight, but I think they will most likely add gigafactories and manufacturing plants, roughly cloning the current factory and the initial GF.

I haven't any special insight either, but one of the key points about the GF is the vertical integration. Combining the car production with the battery production is just one step further along that line. But obviously it may be other consideration to make that makes it impractical.

Earl and Nagin ... | 28 November 2014

@Model III and Grinnin',

Perhaps if we're optimizing, it would be best to put the GF or other energy intensive manufacturing processes closer to energy sources while transportation intensive processes or engineering resource intensive ones would want to be closer to those resources.
This could point toward a GF with raw material processing in sunny western NV with an assembly plant in Si Valley is moving toward an optimal arrangement. Having these directly connected by high-efficiency rail lines would complete the arrangement. Now, if we could only electrify the rail lines in CA . . .
. . . just thoughts

Model ☰ | 28 November 2014

@Earl and Nagin ...
Perhaps if we're optimizing, it would be best to put the GF or other energy intensive manufacturing processes closer to energy sources while transportation intensive processes or engineering resource intensive ones would want to be closer to those resources.

Yes, it was something a long this line that I had in my mind in my last sentence...

Brian H | 28 November 2014

That's why NV was in the cat bird's seat for the 1st GF. Close to both.

Red Sage ca us | 29 November 2014

The Model X will open a lot of eyes. The Model ☰ will shut a lot of mouths. People will see what they have been missing. People will learn not to listen to Naysayers. Tesla Motors will do very well, every quickly.

So it will become apparent that a second Gigafactory, and multiple manufacturing locations, will be necessary in rather short order.

The batteries that Tesla Motors currently gets from Panasonic are started in Japan. But their manufacture is completed in China. Then they are shipped to Fremont, where they are assembled as battery packs.

When a Chinese manufacturing plant is opened, sometime after the opening of the Gigafactory, and the beginning of Model ☰ sales, its batteries will come from the current Chinese source. They will be assembled into battery packs at the new manufacturing facility. That location will build Model S, Model X, and Model ☰ variants. I'd guess it would open in 2018 and would supply Asia and the South Pacific nations.

The second Gigafactory would be built in the US, at one of the previously chosen locations. It would probably complete construction in 2019.

The third Gigafactory would probably be built in Europe, alongside a new manufacturing location, with construction beginning sometime around 2019, aiming for completion in 2021.

blue adept | 1 December 2014

@cmcnestt

I see.

JeffreyR | 3 December 2014

+1 @Red Sage

I think another reason to "rush" the roll out of new manufacturing is to take advantage of the cheap capital currently available. I doubt there are many more vacant NUMMI-like plants to buy up!

l2thev | 3 December 2014

Yeah, I agree. Model X is just the bomb. Best thing that ever happened. Okay maybe that's a little too exaggerated but whatever...