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Model S Reservation Tally

Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

derek | 30 January 2013

@Ajepstei@uci.edu

"Wow! 17xxx are already finalizing! That is awesome."

Bear in mind, that is happening not because they are about to get their cars, but rather because TM announced a price increase late last year, and all those who reserved prior to price bump are allowed to buy at the lower price - so long as they finalize.

#18,525, ordered a week ago.

jackhub | 1 February 2013

bump

Brian H | 1 February 2013

Corr:

As of January 29, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:.

25,539*1,741/1,405 = 31,647
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,539 - 13,260)*549/213 = 44,909
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,539 - 18,337)*426/91 = 52,052
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.2 :| →
.
Since June '12: 57.6 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 79.1 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

gbrody1 | 2 February 2013

i am reservation holder in toronto canada
my resrevation number is 471 dated november 29 2013
a sales rep at tesla in toronto told me they have 65 reservations with deposit in january 2013

i have ordered 85kwh with active air
due in april 2013

Brian H | 2 February 2013

gbrody;
You lie! No way have you reserved almost 10 months in the future.

GoPrag | 2 February 2013

Good part is he's getting his car before making a reservation!

csause | 2 February 2013

Reservation confirmed on Feb. 1 number 18,845

Fredhmartin | 2 February 2013

csause: Thanks for the reservation post.

michiganmodels | 2 February 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,845 (February 1, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,701 (January 31, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,705 – February 1, 2013

Net Total: 21,679 – February 1, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Brian H | 3 February 2013

As of February 1, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:.

25,705*1,741/1,408 = 31,784
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,705 - 13,260)*549/216 = 44,891
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,705 - 18,337)*426/94 = 51,728
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.3 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 57.6 :| →
.
Since Oct. '12: 78.4 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

kenliles | 4 February 2013

bump - this thread should be made persistent imo

jackhub | 4 February 2013

+1 bump

michiganmodels | 5 February 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,845 (February 1, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,732 (February 3, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,736 – February 3, 2013

Net Total: 21,710 – February 3, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Brian H | 5 February 2013

Waiting for new US P #s...

Whity Whiteman | 5 February 2013

can't wait for 2/11

michiganmodels | 6 February 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,845 (February 1, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,886 (February 5, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,890 – February 5, 2013

Net Total: 21,864 – February 5, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Benz | 6 February 2013

How about that? A rise of 154 reservations for a Tesla Model S in Europe/Asia in just 2 days time!!! Fantastic

From:
P 2,732 (February 3, 2013)

To:
P 2,886 (February 5, 2013)

Brian H | 6 February 2013

As of February 5, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:.

25,890*1,741/1,412 = 31,922
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,890 - 13,260)*549/220 = 44,778
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,890 - 18,337)*426/98 = 51,169
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.3 :| →
.
Since June '12: 57.4 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 77.1 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

kenliles | 7 February 2013

Bump

GoPrag | 8 February 2013

Bump Bump

schoendp | 8 February 2013

Still waiting for new US P #s...

schoendp | 8 February 2013

As posted on the configuration thread:

joshmaru@gmail.com | FEBRUARY 8, 2013
Reservation #18,974 placed on Feb 5th.
Received email to configure Feb 8th.

Brian H | 8 February 2013

That's a fast configure! Only about 20 res/day for the US this month, tho'. Would sure be interesting to see this by state/region as it develops!

GoTeslaChicago | 8 February 2013

Brian,

Not so fast. Reservation was made on the 5th. Therefore 129 res in 4 days = 32.25/day. Still the same rate as January.

Brian H | 8 February 2013

Doh. Sleep dep is a beotch. Don't get old. It doesn't end well.

michiganmodels | 9 February 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,874 (February 8, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,886 (February 5, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 26,019 – February 8, 2013

Net Total: 21,993 – February 8, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

michiganmodels | 9 February 2013

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,974 (February 8, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,886 (February 5, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 26,019 – February 8, 2013

Net Total: 21,993 – February 8, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Brian H | 10 February 2013

As of February 8, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:.

26,019*1,741/1,415 = 32,013
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (26,019 - 13,260)*549/223 = 44,671
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (26,019 - 18,337)*426/101 = 50,738
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.4 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 57.2 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 76.1 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

schoendp | 11 February 2013

Brian H - I think it would be good to start a reservation rate implied since Dec. 31 2012 (in addition to other 3). This would give us a good idea of how they are doing since the price increase and whether it is rising steadily.

Thanks

Brian H | 11 February 2013

Hm, ok, though I might wait a bit. I'm not super-confident of the Jan. 1 starting #s. But you have a point.

RhoonNL | 11 February 2013

Reservation confirmed today (February 11 2013) : P 2792
Location: Europe, The Netherlands

gregv64 | 11 February 2013

Are we even going to get any more US numbers? They're not showing the sequence # on the MyTesla page any more, so I'm not sure whether they even tell people what it is when they reserve.

Carefree | 11 February 2013

@gregv64 - was wondering the same - maybe they realized that having the sequential number made things too transparent and easy to figure out? I am awaiting the quarterly call with lots of anticipation. The number that really interests me most is "number of cancelations". We might be in for a very big surprise.

Brian H | 11 February 2013

See the post immediately above yours. Europeans are being told their numbers. And a US buyer got one Friday. But few new buyers are now previous forum users, so they have to stumble onto the sites Michigan Model S can monitor.

EclecticCitizen | 11 February 2013

Just got my Delivery button today. Here was my timeline:

12/18/12 Reserved, sequence #16,130
01/22/13 invited to configure
01/30/13 Finalized configuration. Sequence # disappeared shortly after if I remember right.
01/31/13 Paperwork countersigned by Tesla
02/11/13 Delivery survey invite by email, Delivery button on my Dashboard. After survey, delivery window given of March 1-15 to Scottsdale AZ.
So about 3 months start to finish.
I called them with some questions, and they mentioned VIN won't be available until the week before my delivery...seems to cut it down to the wire for applying for financing.

General production Model S. 85kW, 19 in wheels, Air suspension, pano roof, grey paint, tan, obeche matte wood, stereo package, parcel shelf, paint protection, twin chargers.

MB3 | 11 February 2013

It looks to me like the MT COTY award was a big blip in sales and that we are back to the steady increase predicted prior to that award. You can see the graph here
)

cschock | 11 February 2013

Production
US
Reservation Sequence Number: 19019
Reservation Date: 2/6/2013
Invited to Configure: 2/8/2013

patrick.meier | 11 February 2013

Europe Signature #268 - Just finalized configuration.

Delivery July - August 2013

Brian H | 12 February 2013

MB3;
Your "Excel Web App" just shows travelling dots on my PC FF browser screen. No graphs.

MB3 | 13 February 2013

Thanks Brian. I will see if I can reproduce with FF, or maybe I'll just move it to Google docs.

kenliles | 13 February 2013

Graph works for me, maybe MB3 fixed it. Big drop off of course but you're right resumes a nice steady increasing rate approaching 60/day. Assuming it continues the same slow steady rise from here, a 30,000/yr should be an easy get for this year

jeroens | 13 February 2013

Cool data MB3, would be great to see graphs split for EU and USA, so we can see the trend on how the MS is picking up in Europe, especially now things are starting to move there (Get Amped tour, signature time to build, coming Geneva autoshow etc.)

Brian H | 13 February 2013

MB3;
Opened fine in Chrome.

Brian H | 13 February 2013

Oops. NoScript in my FF was blocking msecnd.net scripts. Now works fine.

jackhub | 14 February 2013

bump

jan.vanveen | 15 February 2013

I got reservation sequence number 1811 in november 2012. Is a regular production Model S.

jan.vanveen | 15 February 2013

I got reservation sequence number 1811 in november 2012. Is a regular production Model S.
I'm based in Netherlands, Europe.

Bubba2000 | 15 February 2013

Brian H and others - I wonder if you could enter the estimates of the reservations, production over time in graph form. We do not have enough data from Tesla, but it may be possible to estimate the error due to cancellation and other factors.

There is serious money betting against the stock with the short interested estimated to be close to 23% of outstanding shares or 26M shares out of the 114M shares. Big money like Barclays is involved. If your preliminary data points to a significant acceleration of reservations and may be production, then we could get short squeeze after 2012Q4 announcement on Feb-20. If the trend is not impressive or showing signs of slowing, then the shorts may do ok.

Brian H | 15 February 2013

Honestly, no. I wouldn't dare. There are so many holes in the available data that it would end up as mostly WAGs.

Chuck Lusin | 16 February 2013

The delivery spreadsheet has a typo, there can not be a sequence number at 31,871 yet!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqeF0BCgQY1TdC1WQk53Z0h0UER...

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