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Model X Q4 delivery no. guess thread

Model X Q4 delivery no. guess thread

Tesla sold 11580 cars in the Q3. 6 cars out of these cars were Model X. Now Tesla needs to sell at least 16843 cars to reach 50,000 annual sales figure. Please place your guesses on how many Model X will Tesla deliver in Q4. Also please guess whether Tesla will be able to reach it target or not. So, we have four parameters for this thread which are as follows-

Tesla Q4 target success- (Y/N)
Total Q4 no.-
Model S Q4 no.-
Model X Q4 no.-

Ankit Mishra | 3 October 2015

Tesla Q4 target success- Yes
Total Q4 no.-16900
Model S Q4 no.-13000
Model X Q4 no.-3900

aesculus | 3 October 2015

I am much more conservative but I will steal you MS numbers:

Tesla Q4 target success- Sort of
Total Q4 no.-14500
Model S Q4 no.-13000
Model X Q4 no.-1500

NumberOne | 3 October 2015

Worst Case:
Model S 12,700
Model X 4,093
Total 16,843

I am virtually guaranteed to get my car this year in the above scenario, and I have a feeling Tesla will be producing a few hundred more Model X by year end (barring supply problems, which I think is less likely than many people think).

elguapo | 3 October 2015

I wish I thought any of the X guesses were close to correct, but I do t think they are.

Tesla Q4 target success- No
Total Q4 no.-13,000
Model S Q4 no.- 12,500
Model X Q4 no.- 500

Red Sage ca us | 3 October 2015

Hmmm... 13 weeks... 6 days per week... 78 days to work... Take away as much as three weeks, or 18 days of Deliveries to be made early 2016 instead... Leaves 60 working days to Deliver ~17,000 vehicles.

First, presume that 3,000 of those will be Model S cars that were Produced during Q3 2015 that will be Delivered in Q4.

Second, presume that very few, if any, Model S cars will be Produced in December 2015.

Third, presume that as Model X Production increases, Model S Production will taper off in coming weeks in order to get as many of the Model X Reservations out of the way as possible before year end.

Thus, it really depends upon how aggressively one believes Model X Production can be ramped up over the course of ten weeks.
POTENTIAL MODEL X PRODUCTION SCHEDULE
WEEK LUDACRIS FAST SLOW GLACIAL
1 100 50 25 25
2 200 100 50 25
3 200 200 100 50
4 400 400 100 50
5 400 400 200 100
6 800 400 200 100
7 800 600 200 100
8 800 600 400 200
9 800 800 400 200
10 800 800 600 400
TOTAL 5,300 4,350 2,275 1,250
As usual, what most are bound to consider to be 'Ludacris' is what I consider to be baseline minimal. So for Deliveries:

Tesla Q4 target success- YES
Total Q4 no.- 17,000
Model S Q4 no.- 11,700
Model X Q4 no.- 5,300

Obviously, I believe that Production will be quite a bit higher.

Ankit Mishra | 18 October 2015

Bump

darlin | 19 October 2015

100 or less as not one X has come off the line yet.

I believe the first 6 were hand built and there still seems to be a supply problem.

Pretty sure shorting the stock for the end of year will be a good idea. They will bounce back in 2016Q1, but, they will miss 2015 sales goals. Again.

Getting tried of guessing what month mine will A: get configured B: get started C: get delivered.

AT number 13542, I am now hoping for June 2016. Maybe.

NumberOne | 3 November 2015

As usual, not much information during the conference call, that we did not already kind of know. Tesla again lowered their Q4 delivery forecast kind of behind a little wall of mist by indicating a production range of between 15k and 17k. Actually 2k fewer would bring production down to just over 48k for the year which is 7k fewer than the original estimate.

Also Elton was kind of evasive about the standard production model price tag and again reiterated that it would be priced no more than $5k more than a similarly equipped Model S (specifically mentioning battery capacity and number of seats). This makes me think that the non optional seats will make the price difference greater than $5k.

Now we know that the seats are made in-house. What is with this not letting us see the configuration tool. It is now officially less than 60 days before the end of the year. I am below 3k total including sigs, and I am more certain every day that I will not see my car this year. They can say they hope to make several hundred vehicles per week by the end of the year but if they do not let people configure all they need to do is 300 per week during December to produce all the Signature models. Production however, is quite different from deliveries.

Nexxus | 4 November 2015

Personally, IMO, after reading and listening to the 3Q conference call, I believe they have already built 200-300 of the SIG's that were asked to configure and have them parked someplace in that huge factory somewhere, waiting on the second row seats. They've mentioned that they brought the second row seat building in-house, so while they get tooled up and building what hasn't been delivered yet, they're building out as many X's as possible (sans seats) and are storing them until then.

Just my opinion.

gerardP | 4 November 2015

IMHO there will not be deliveries beyond those US signature ordered.
Indeed no call for designing cars for other reservations (US production or EU signatures) have been sent as of today. Yet there are only eight weeks left until the end of the year.
I believe that this is a very short amount of time for all the steps to be completed (call for designing, order, TM aknowledgement,VIN attribution,fabrication, and lastly delivery).
This does not necessarily mean that TM would not reach their objective of 50000 deliveries in this year, as there could be S fabrications on the second chain.

Ankit Mishra | 4 January 2016

Hmm. So @Redsage was closer than me on total sales. Congrats!!

Red Sage ca us | 5 January 2016

Well, my numbers for Model X Productin were off by around 90%. Hopefully, the rampup for Model X Production and Deliveries I suggested will take place during Q1 2016.