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Model X Reservation Tally

Model X Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

US
S 140 (June 20, 2012)
P 1,206 (July 10, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 50 (May 9, 2012)

Europe
S 12 (March 19, 2012)
P 87 (July 16, 2012)

Gross Total: 1,498 - July 16, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

michiganmodels | 17 September 2012

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 174 (August 14, 2012)
P 1,460 (September 6, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 50 (May 9, 2012)

Europe
S 34 (Signature 14, 2012)
P 99 (September 5, 2012)

Hong Kong
P 9 (September 11, 2012)

Gross Total: 1,829 - September 14, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

Brian H | 17 September 2012

As of September 11, 2012, projected total reservations by end 2013:

(1829*690)/213 = 5,925
.
:-( ↓

l.parvanov | 18 September 2012

Hi folks,
I`m from Eastern Europe, Bulgaria.

I just have updated my Tesla Account with reservation #0

Do anybody knows what is that. I think I have to be No100 for Europe reservations, or this show that I`m the first from my country?

Thanks in advance,
good luck to all

Ludmil
:)

Brian H | 18 September 2012

That's very odd. Ask your Tesla contact person what it means.

kelly | 21 September 2012

@ Brian H

I appreciate your "end of 2013 projections," but I don't think the growth in reservations will be steady. I think it's more likely the reservations will increase (like a hockey stick) the closer we get to production, at least up to a certain point, before people start to balk at the wait time. I also think the continued positive reviews and increased exposure from the Model S rollout will help Model X as we head into 2013.

:-) ↑

edjez | 22 September 2012

@kelly We could chart that.

A simple form (like the one being used for model S deliveries) can yield a lot of data.
https://docs.google.com/a/instedd.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqeF0BCgQY1Td...

If MichiganModels is OK with it, (and can share your email in private message here or in TMC forums, "EchoDelta" ) i can help you create the spreadsheet, easy-to-use or embed form and some basic charts - then the data can be used in more interesting ways.

I think it's awesome that a community of enthusiasts each share their grain of sand piece of data that can shed light on the dynamics around demand and supply of Teslas.

edjez | 22 September 2012
Brian H | 23 September 2012

I agree entirely. The rate presently extrapolated is based on a very "thin" base, and should jump when more is known.

Note that TM will not discuss the Model X reservation rate at this point, as it is such early days.

tpmeyer | 23 September 2012

Model X reservation #1509 September 17th, 2012

michiganmodels | 23 September 2012

@edjez - I can send you my spreadsheet if that is what you were suggesting. What is your email?

michiganmodels | 23 September 2012

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 174 (August 14, 2012)
P 1,509 (September 17, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 50 (May 9, 2012)

Europe
S 34 (Signature 14, 2012)
P 99 (September 5, 2012)

Hong Kong
P 9 (September 11, 2012)

Gross Total: 1,862 - September 17, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

adiggs | 28 September 2012

I received my production reservation # 1546 on Sept 25, 2012. That was then upgraded to signature reservation # 184 on Sept 26, 2012.

Alex K | 28 September 2012

U.S. P #1,565 28-Sep-2012

tpmeyer | 1 October 2012

I plotted the reservation numbers posted here against date reserved. The rate is surprisingly constant from July through the present. Tesla is averaging 4.3 reservations per day of the Production model X.

Timo | 2 October 2012

That would be about 4500 reservations at the end of 2014 if the speed is constant. I do think reservation speed increases once they have street-legal actual production model ready though.

Brian H | 2 October 2012

@adiggs;
Thanks for mentioning that; it reminds us that there is some inevitable duplication, etc., leading to overstatement of the total.

jkirkebo | 3 October 2012

EU P#107 reported in Norway today.

michiganmodels | 7 October 2012

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 174 (August 14, 2012)
P 1,565 (September 28, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 50 (May 9, 2012)

Europe
S 34 (Signature 14, 2012)
P 107 (October 3, 2012)

Switzerland
P 35 (October 5, 2012)

Hong Kong
P 11 (October 4, 2012)

Gross Total: 1,982 - October 5, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

Laurent.Marchand | 7 October 2012

Date: 22/05/2012

Region: Canada

P53

I was waiting to see a more recent update from Canada.

Brian H | 8 October 2012

As of October 5, 2012, projected total reservations by end 2013:

(1982*690)/237 = 5,770
.
:-( ↓

sbern18 | 8 October 2012

very small number

michiganmodels | 8 October 2012

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 184 (September 26, 2012)
P 1,565 (September 28, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 55 (May 22, 2012)

Europe
S 34 (Signature 14, 2012)
P 107 (October 3, 2012)

Switzerland
P 35 (October 5, 2012)

Hong Kong
P 11 (October 4, 2012)

Gross Total: 1,987 - October 5, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

Brian H | 8 October 2012

As of October 5, 2012, projected total reservations by end 2013:

(1987*690)/237 = 5,785
.
:) ↑

CargoHoldFlyer | 10 October 2012

Received Oct 9 2012 (switch from Model S to X)

US Region - Model X General (P) 1616

tpmeyer | 11 October 2012

Reservation 1616 on October 10th is almost exactly in line with the calculated rate of 4.3 reservations per day for the U.S. market (P). The calculated number was 1612. Projecting this rate out to the end of 2013 gives only 3,550 reservations total for the U.S. (P) market.

Brian H | 11 October 2012

tpmeyer;
What period do you use to get 4.3? Since the reveal, the rate is 8.3.

Brian H | 11 October 2012

Global, that is. Subtract about 1/4 to get the US rate.

philiparnason | 11 October 2012

1638 / October 11, 2012 / United States / General Production

tpmeyer | 15 October 2012

All I did was go through this forum and pull out all the people who announce their number and date, to get these data:
DATE Res #
7/20/2012 1261
7/24/2012 1274
7/27/2012 1284
8/2/2012 1315
7/30/2012 1297
8/29/2012 1436
8/31/2012 1444
8/28/2012 1428
8/27/2012 1417
9/17/2012 1509
9/26/2012 1546
9/28/2012 1565
10/9/2012 1616
10/11/2012 1638

And then did a simple linear fit. The 1638 two days after 1616 is a significant blip up, and now the slope says 4.37 reservations/day instead of 4.3. If I could attach the graph, you could see how good the fit is. All the points lie right on the line except the last is a tad bit above.

tpmeyer | 15 October 2012

If I use the gross tallies instead, as published my michiganmodels, I get about 6 reservations/day.

I'm hoping the rates start to go up of course. When they do, it might be a good time to buy the stock. If I start to see a "hockey stick", I'll let you know!

Brian H | 15 October 2012

Doh. I had the S figures on my brain. You're right, of course.

Note that TM is deliberately saying nothing about the X until the "ramp up" is accomplished. I wouldn't expect to see any bump in the X-res rate this calendar year.

Brian H | 15 October 2012

Unless the "spill-over" effect of interest in the S gets lots of people turned on to the X in parallel -- quite possible. Here's a guess: until TM starts to "push" the X, its res-rate will be about ½ the S', which is now about 8.3/day.

:)

GoTeslaChicago | 17 October 2012

Brian,

The Model S reservation rate is more like 30 to 40 a day.

edsouza99 | 17 October 2012

Canada P57 (June 18, 2012)

Brian H | 17 October 2012

GTM;
Yes, of course you're right. Posting too late at night has its hazards. My number for the S since July 1 is actually about 44/day.

;)

Brian H | 17 October 2012

Correction: GTC, not GTM. |:/

michiganmodels | 18 October 2012

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 184 (September 26, 2012)
P 1,638 (October 12, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 55 (May 22, 2012)

Europe
S 34 (Signature 14, 2012)
P 107 (October 3, 2012)

Switzerland
P 35 (October 5, 2012)

Hong Kong
P 11 (October 4, 2012)

Gross Total: 2,060 - October 12, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

Brian H | 18 October 2012

As of October 5, 2012, projected total reservations by end 2013:

(2060*690)/244 = 5,825
.
:) ↑

l.parvanov | 21 October 2012

Hi from Bulgaria.
Model X, General Production
#7 for Bulgaria

:)

bens-tech-toys | 27 October 2012

Reserved in Westchester, NY today. Ended up reserving a Model X Production & then a Model X Signature. There was an issue, so the Model X Production is being credited, but I received a reservation # for both.

Model X Signature #204
Model X Production #1712

pgeerlofs | 29 October 2012

Model X Signature #205
Olympic Peninsula (near Port Townsend) Wa

michiganmodels | 2 November 2012

This thread is intended to track Model X reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model S Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-reservation-tally

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 209 (October 29, 2012)
P 1,712 (October 27, 2012)

Canada
S 3 (February 23, 2012)
P 55 (May 22, 2012)

Europe
S 34 (Signature 14, 2012)
P 116 (October 31, 2012)

Switzerland
P 35 (October 5, 2012)

Hong Kong
P 11 (October 4, 2012)

Gross Total: 2,168 - October 31, 2012

S = Signature Series (Model X)
P = General Production (Model X)

Brian H | 4 November 2012

As of October 31, 2012, projected total reservations by end 2013:

(2168*690)/270 = 5,540
.
:( ↓

Petrokalis | 5 November 2012

Just upgraded my wife's Model X to signature. P1146 -> S207.

Odd that it's a lower sig number than the S209 in the tally.

canning | 6 November 2012

Just received my reservation, and it too was lower than the tally:

US
S 208 (November 6, 2012)

Neige | 6 November 2012

If you upgrade from production to signature then you're number becomes what it would have been if you had reserved signature right away.

philiparnason | 7 November 2012

I've heard that too, but how is that possible +Jason.archibald? Unless two people can have the same number, or change everybody elses number....
Philip

philiparnason | 7 November 2012

Just upgraded 60 seconds ago. Was P#1638, now S#211.

flar | 9 November 2012

The #209 looks like a typo. The only post on October 29 listed S#205, but the next tally reported that 209 for that date. Looks like it was an error in copying the number over?

tjp74 | 9 November 2012

New here... after dabating on model S... I leased Nissan Leaf for 24 month instead (it was a deal I couldn't refuse) and just placed a reservation for a Model X.

P1774, Seattle, Washington. Hope it's ready by 11/2014 when the lease on my Leaf is over.

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