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Model X Reservation- What Percentage is "Real"

Model X Reservation- What Percentage is "Real"

What percentage of current Model X reservations do you believe is "real"? I define real as this --if the person is called and said, "we are ready to process your order, put your money down", that the reservation holder would go through with the purchase immediately, without delay of more than 30 days. No waiting for reviews, no waiting a few months for money, or for Tesla to iron out problems in the first months, I'm talking abut immediate purchase action now!

My guess is 67%.

carlk | 7 August 2015

77.25%

davidjmeltzer | 7 August 2015

I reserved X couple months ago and in my case it was just because I am shopping for a new SUV and in case I decided I wanted the Tesla I figured no harm to having my place in line. Ideally I'd like to test drive the '16 Audi Q7 and X and then make a decision. If I'm forced to order or lose my place before I can do those things, I might still buy an X, but I might not.

eric.zucker | 7 August 2015

Whenever Tesla is ready, so am I. There is a 1-2% probability that some missing essential requirement might turn me off.

Also, Tesla has a program to retake vehicles that the purchaser turns out of, within reasonable time limits.
It would be ridiculous not to go ahead.

I would say an overwhelming majority will buy. Unless personal circumstances prevent it at such time - job loss, divorce, accident etc.

carlk | 7 August 2015

@davidjmeltzer Don't worry. You are at least six months, and likely close to a year, away from getting your X if you made your reservation only two months ago.

DarthB | 7 August 2015

I hope closer to half, I am WL ~8700. Would be nice to get the car by xmas :)

rossRallen | 7 August 2015

99.44% committed.

pvetesla | 7 August 2015

Once it's revealed the % drop will be a good indication of the great job they did.
I'm guessing (a new guessing game) is (depending on how great the car is) over 85%!!!
Can't wait for the X!

sgabra05 | 7 August 2015

I'm guessing a fair bit cancel or switch to S if price is too high. A lot of people probably put down money while the S was 60-70k base. 100k is a lot to lay out for many people. It's a big difference to reserve for a fully refundable 5k and actually plunk that kind of money down, especially considering what you can get for that kind of money A lot can happen in 2 years. Probably a fair bit of people have already cancelled due to job changes, divorce, kids, whatnot. I wouldn't be surprised if reservation 20000 gets vehicle 10000 off the line.

aesculus | 7 August 2015

I also wonder what influence location has on the queue too. For example if you are on the west coast, or even better the bay area, do you think they would slide some of those reservations up because they can deliver them faster?

Did any early S owners have Tesla call them and ask them if they would pick up at the factory versus being shipped?

Roamer@AZ USA | 7 August 2015

I am 100% certain no one knows.

pvetesla | 8 August 2015

Haha. Wrong.
Someone knows.

ram1901 | 8 August 2015

Agree with sgabra05. "I'm guessing a fair bit cancel or switch to S if price is too high. "

Although, 25,000 - 25% cancel-> = 18750 reservations remaining -- still impressive for Tesla.

At a $25,000 mark up for each vehicle, if that is close to the number, Tesla still makes almost a half a billion dollars ($468,750,000 to be exact) on that number during the first wave of reservations.

Not bad for about 6 months of production. Hopefully that will be enough to help provide cash for the next wave of development.

As noted in other threads we all want to see Tesla succeed.

carlk | 8 August 2015

@pvetesla I'm not so sure even on that.

aesculus | 8 August 2015

One of my neighbors was a fairly early 60s buyer. They had been told when they made a reservation it would be June based on their sequence number but Tesla called them in December to offer the build the car then. There we caught off guard so had to delay a few months from that. Just saying ...

ken | 8 August 2015

Here are some numbers to consider, when I was moved from the Signature waiting list to the Signature reservation list on July 1st, my Signature number was in the early 1400's. If they are only building 1,000 signature models, that means that something over 40% had cancelled, or moved to the MS. Some have speculated that they are building 1,200 signature models, if that is the case then because of my number, 17% had cancelled or moved to something else. One could therefore reasonably assume that the cancellation number is somewhere between 17% and 40%. I am not sure that the regular reservation holders would be substantially different on the cancellation rate. Just a thought!

jjs | 8 August 2015

@ken I think they had 1200 sigs. if I'm not mistaken. (Which of course is s a real possibility.)

vandacca | 8 August 2015

Reservations holders will get a special discounted price because they've had to wait so long. Priced exactly like an equivalently spec'ed Model-S. At least thats what I would do if I were Elon Musk. :)

ken | 8 August 2015

jjs | AUGUST 8, 2015

So if you are correct that they will build 1200 Signature MX's then the cancellation rate is less than 20%. That seems low, but speaks highly to the tenacity of the Signature reservation holders.

@vandacca, is that what they did on the Model S Signature reservation holders?

tomgibson9 | 9 August 2015

Here's a question for the group. If there are 1,200 signature reservations, were they assigned reservation numbers 1-1,200? I have a non signature reservation number of around 1,900. Ignoring cancelled reservations, would having a number of 1,900 mean I would be 700 in line after the signature orders are filled. Or did Tesla assign numbers as orders came in without differentiating between signature and non-signature orders?

toby_wan_kenoby | 9 August 2015

I have a Sig and a Regular reservation but will most likely only take one or the other. Depends on the specifics of the offer on a Sig Model X.

I would say that most Sig holders did the same just to make sure. So there would be an extra 1200 reservations which are virtual. That is 5% of total US reservations.

So my guess is 75%-80% conversion factor from reservation to purchase.

But I also thing that that does not matter as when the Model X is revealed to general public will take notice and storm the reservation page. Demand will not be the limiting factor.

ultraturtle | 9 August 2015

There are potentially a great number of reservations that are not "real" for a great number of reasons. Cost, seat comfort, ease of entry, dimensions, clearances, range, etc., etc., are all unknowns, to be sorted out through reveals and test drives. Vehicle choice is very specific to one's needs, and no vehicle can be everything to everyone.

For instance, I need a vehicle that can take frequent 330 mile trips at 70 mph nowhere near existing or planned Superchargers on the coldest day of the year, a decade or so from now when the original battery capacity has faded to ~80%. Sadly, the Model X in its projected form cannot do that.

My reservation (USA #13,857) might be ready for build as early as a year from now, but will probably be deferred for another year or two waiting on some sort of practical road trip capability for my situation. That would be either a Supercharger in Abbeville AL or Blakely GA, Nomadic Power (or similar) battery trailer compatibility, or (preferably) a very small (~20hp/15kW) high efficiency electricity generating source powered by CNG, diesel, gasoline, or hydrogen fuel cell integrated into the car with ~ 200 mi fuel capacity (say, 8 gallons of gasoline or equivalent).

I don't see any of the above as realistic near term possibilities, so my reservation is almost certainly not "real".

I don't mind giving Elon an interest free loan for a couple of years however. I like and support what he's trying to accomplish. As supply catches up with demand for his products in their present form, perhaps he will consider expanding his market by adding flexibility and capability. I might then be amongst the first in line for an enhanced capability version of the Model X.

jjs | 9 August 2015

@ultaturtle - Is there no place to charge at your destination? Or do you not stay there long enough?

A 240V 50amp circuit should deliver about 25 miles per hour.

Just curious.

timf2001 | 9 August 2015

@tomgibson9:
Signature and regular reservations have their own number pools. Once all Signatures have been called to finalize, they start from regular reservation #1. A reservation number of 1,900 would place you #3,100 in line in the U.S. only. There are also separate reservation number pools for Canada, Europe, and Asia that will be slotted in at some point.

Also, keep in mind your reservation number only determines the order in which you are allowed to finalize your order. Once you place your order, various factors determine when your car is built and delivered including the options selected and your delivery location.

I'm expecting about a 60% conversion rate from the first 10,000 reservations. Some of these may have already canceled, have duplicate Signature and regular reservations, or decide to defer or cancel once called.

ultraturtle | 9 August 2015

"Is there no place to charge at your destination? Or do you not stay there long enough?
A 240V 50amp circuit should deliver about 25 miles per hour.
Just curious."

Yes, I have a 240V 50 amp charger on both ends. How to charge at the 165 mile point is the issue.

ultraturtle | 9 August 2015

Oops. Meant to say I have a 240v 50A "outlet" on both ends.

jjs | 9 August 2015

Oh! I misunderstood. I assumed it was a 330 mile round trip. My bad. You do indeed have a problem. Pretty tough to add a couple of hours of slow charging each way, each time you go. Here's hoping that they soon will come out with a 350 mile Tesla for you soon.

Best of luck.

ultraturtle | 9 August 2015

"Here's hoping that they soon will come out with a 350 mile Tesla for you soon."

350 mile best case range would only give me about 220 miles after age, mileage, and worse case temperature come into play. I don't want the inefficiency caused by the excess weight and volume of a larger battery pack anyway. I don't need it when I get there, I just need it to get there. I prefer compatibility with a battery trailer like the Nomadic Systems eBuggy, or the option of a high efficiency onboard source of electricity generation.

vandacca | 10 August 2015

@ultraturtle, hopefully in the next decade there will be a 105kWh battery pack that weighs the same as the current 85kWh pack.

@ken, I was trying to subtly suggest to Tesla to offer a discount to current reservations holders (both Signature and Production). I figured that pricing the Model-X the same as the Model-S would be a fair compensation for all the delays (rather than pricing it up to 10% more, as previously suggested). I don't believe they did anything like this for the Model-S when it came out.

NumberOne | 10 August 2015

By the end of 2012, there were only about 300 signature reservations, and nearly 2000 standard production reservations. Some of the last 600 signature reservations were made when people felt that they did not want to be waiting as long, which is why Tesla has over a hundred more than the initial 1200, since some of those people have a reservation for both a sig and prod version. I would be surprised if too many of those are cancelled, but some will because people will see that the ramp up is not as slow as they might have thought, and would not mind waiting a month or two longer. This is of course just my opinion.

The initial prototype of Model S was unveiled 39 months before the first 10 deliveries, and the prototype of Model X 42 months before the first deliveries, provided the first deliveries do indeed happen by the end of September.

At this point, I think that any reservation cancellations will have 0% impact on production, because soon after the first deliveries, many more orders will be coming in.

georgehawley.fl.us | 10 August 2015

My reservation is 100% real. Well at least $4,998.99 of it is, according to the actuarial table.

gerardP | 11 August 2015

@vandacca:
you may find some comfort in two sentences from the TESLA 2014 annual report
"We anticipate that the pricing of Model X will be similar to a comparably equipped Model S."
"When we introduce Model X, we expect that both production inefficiencies and supply chain inefficiencies typical of a new product introduction will suppress Model X margins for at least a few quarters after its introduction"
These are officialstatements, and I understand from them that Tesla is eager to seek prices fairly stable even at the cost of some short term reduction of their margin.

adamgreen | 11 August 2015

I think investors in TSLA can be 100% certain that if Tesla builds 6000 cars by year end, there are 6000+ customers ready and able to take delivery.
Even if the attrition rate was 50%, there'd still be thousands waiting behind them.
My number in the list is under 500, so I would like to think I'll be merrily complaining about buckets of snow falling in those falcon wings by Christmas. The kids are going to have a snowman in the second row ...

vandacca | 12 August 2015

Wow! Thanks @gerardP. It just goes to show how powerful this forum is. You mention something and a few days later it shows up in an official report. ;-)

Elon has always said that the Model-X would be within a single-digit percentage point of the Model-S, but that was before the D was announced. Now that there is an equivalent Model-S (with AWD) it makes sense that they should be priced the same (or similarly).

ken | 12 August 2015

+1

georgehawley.fl.us | 12 August 2015

No spam for you