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What actually makes you think X is coming any time soon ?

What actually makes you think X is coming any time soon ?

People who had the factory tour noted a distinct lack of action or even any cars on the X line.

If TSLA admitted next to no cars are coming soon the stock price will crash 50%.

Perhaps the Founder cars were all hand assembled.

Someone needs to do a factory tour and observe the progress.

Is this possibe?

If not, then IMO there are no cars.

Better make an offer for a mule...

Ankit Mishra | 7 October 2015

I disagree. Though I have no data to support my opinion I am still surprised by the negative outlook you and some other people have of Tesla's new car X. I guess some people had similar irrational negative point of view of Tesla when S was launched.

eric.zucker | 7 October 2015

I would think they have tested and mostly calibrated most of the 2nd assembly line on the mules and founders' by now and are struggling with supplier issues for parts. No need to half-build Model Xs only to let them sit until those parts arrive. As soon as they are able to, production will begin in earnest.

Having Signature reservation holders configure means they can finalize some shopping lists - wheel hubs, tires, leather seats, alcantara headliners, speakers, trailer hitches, etc.

Feedback from the founders who have the cars will also be carefully monitored for adjustments. Better that than have unhappy customers and recalls.

Patience comes hard, especially when waiting on such a fabulous car. Even worse, my neighbor got himself a Model S yesterday, parked right in front of me. Looks like I sold him on Tesla, and I'm not even an owner yet!

Ross1 | 7 October 2015

@Ankit: no negativity here, I love it.

Also I am a shareholder, my biggest private holding.

I desperately want it to work.

medplex | 7 October 2015

I agree with the extremely slow ramp up theory. There are 6 of these cars excluding the Mules in existence..that's right-- 6.

I believe these cars are extremely hard to manufacture and parts constraints are going to be very apparent. I can't see how they ever are going to be able to complete more than 100 to 200 cars per week.

I am right around number 2000 in the regular production line and I fully expect that I won't see my car for another 6 months.

NumberOne | 7 October 2015

There are more than 6, since the founder cars were not used for demo drives.

EVino | 7 October 2015

I think they have a manufacturing product mix planned in advance to make the best use of available parts and the S demand may be taking priority.

Ankit Mishra | 7 October 2015

Okay. Nice to know that. Some people have been predicting doomsday for X like they can see future or something. I mistook you for them. I would like to point out that the ramp up would be slow, but when they are confident we are here talking about a company that churns out 11500 of EV each quarter.

bobby | 7 October 2015

I do not really expect the Model X to be in my hands any time soon, and I do not really care either. I am Prod. Res. #1071 and have been on the list for about 3 years. It's been 3 years of waiting already; what's another few months? I don't understand the profound negativity that plagues many of the people on this forum. I'll get my car when I get it. It'll be sometime in the next 6 months. I'd rather they get the car and the process right, then rush a flawed product into the hands of consumers just because people are impatient.

Patiently waiting,
Bobby
Prod. Res #1071

Tâm | 7 October 2015

@Ankit Mishra

My observation of the Launch Event: It was an effort to meet the deadline and it is not fair to think it's ready for mass production.

There were minor clues:

1) Under-utilized FOB: Elon didn't use the FOB to open the Falcon Wing Doors, he went into the SUV to do so.

2) Firmware 7: Unlike the past that the Press were invited to tape the action, there were absolutely no hands-on demonstration of what Auto-Pilot could do at this stage: On-ramp to Off-ramp hands-free driving.

3) Cargo Storage: The demonstration did show that it could carry lots of smaller luggage such as child stroller, suitcases but the highlight was: how to haul longer items outside of the SUV instead of fitting them in the interior: bikes, surfboards, skis...

4) Various Seat Configuration: The web shows 2 configurations: full 7 seats or missing 1 middle seat. The Launch Event showed you could have a center console in the place of the missing middle seat but Tesla Rep said rely on the web page, not what you could touch in the Launch Event. Tesla reps said refer to the web page as they cannot confirm or deny any future plan for the seat configurations or foldability of second row seats.

5) Specifications are not spelled out on the web: Many told me to wait for the Launch Event and Tesla would disclose all those public specifications. It looks like they are still working on this.

6) Pricing: Unlike the S that your would know the start price 3 years before production, the public only heard of the highest price option of the X but little else for other options. It may be a clue: Designs and configurations are not matured enough for pricing: Center Console for the missing seat or not? Optional third row seat for general production or not? What are different battery sizes...

carlk | 7 October 2015

I seriously doubt any delay is because design is not finalized yet. They would not have released even one car if that's the case. My guess is it's just how fast they, and their suppliers, could ramp up production without compromising quality. Production ramp up is not as easy as you would think especially for a complex machine like the X. The founder's cars are likely hand built and individually tested and inspected every step of the way. Now they need to work on the real production and it's (slowly) coming.

As for the new firmware Elon said in an interview yesterday there are 600~700 S owners beta testing the 7.0 now.

Ankit Mishra | 7 October 2015

1. Not a conclusive evidence. Maybe he doesn't likes to use the fob. There are instances in test drive videos where people have opened the FWD with the door knobs. Though I don't have evidence to debunk your theory about fob, I disagree with it.
2. Its was UI 7 and not the autopilot. I think you are mistaking AP as UI update 7 which it's not. Autosteer and parallel park will come later.
3. Again, I am opinion that Tesla doesn't want people to haul cargo inside their premium SUV. It has provided you with options to do so outside the car and hence the focus on that. I think you want to say that Tesla wanted to hide its failure by doing so. Fine, its your opinion and we can agree to disagree on it.
4. Yes. Rely on the webpage because that's whats you are ordering. If their is no console on the webpage you cant order it. I don't think folding seats are coming any time soon.
5. What specifications? There is enough info in my opinion for a person to finalise his order if folding is not an issue.
6. Tesla wont allow less expensive options for a new product. A new product has exclusivity and provides a chance for the company to earn good profit. When the products loses it uniqueness they will offer these options as demand levers.
(My opinion. No attempt to convert you to my school of thought. Just a discussion)

aesculus | 7 October 2015

@Ankit Mishra
3. Again, I am opinion that Tesla doesn't want people to haul cargo inside their premium SUV. It has provided you with options to do so outside the car and hence the focus on that.
I find this statement ironic given one of the design goals that got nixed because of regulatory issues was the removal of the side rear view mirrors. Since it was quoted that the belief of removing the mirrors could potentially extend the range up to 5% (which I think was way overly optimistic).

So now we get to put a huge rack on the back or worse, tow a trailer, in order to haul our sports equipment. What % on range do you think that might have?

carlk | 7 October 2015

Check out the new thread about letter to reservation holders sent today. Looks it's coming.

@aesculus What percentage of time you need to haul big cargo and what percentage of time you will have passengers? To me it the same as the small (charging) inconvenience on long trips compares to the convenience of everyday driving. People worry about things they rarely do but forget the benefit they enjoy everyday. The more I think about it the more I believe the seat design makes sense, at least for me.

Mark Z | 7 October 2015

My posts at TMC have been positive after my factory tour on September 30. Factory workers were busy installing items into a "Training X" near the final assembly line. There were other details mentioned in multiple posts that would be outdated by now. As I said then, a tour is a "snapshot" of that moment in time. Things can change quickly and the best way to track the progress would be for those taking tours to report their experiences without too much detail (tour guests are required to sign agreements to not disclose information). Each day of delay means a better Model X will be assembled. The factory workers are being trained and looked very busy on the day I was there. Be positive. For every vehicle that reaches the final assembly station, there is a customer who will be pleased. It doesn't matter what color, left or right drive, S or X, or the countless combinations that make up the choices we choose. Every S and X will go through that final assembly line. I can be assured that the same great Tesla Motors experts that make the finest rated vehicles in the world are going to make sure that every S and X will continue to meet standards of excellence that all owners of fine Tesla motor cars are enjoying today.

clublon | 7 October 2015

Founders' cars were used for demos. I took some photos of the founders' cars features. They were labeled so on the front fender logos and the rear license plates said founders' model. I also confirmed with an employee in the know that the founders' red ones were signature red. The black demo did not have a license plate but had a trailer hitch receptacle showing like the one use to tow the airstream. If the ones on stage were not used as demos that would mean there are more than 6 founder's' cars.

NumberOne | 7 October 2015

@clublon I guess this answers that question.

aesculus | 7 October 2015

@carlK :

My current people hauling versus thing hauling (sports equipment, home improvement items, home furnishings, pets, horse tack ...) is about 3% of the time for people. I am not kidding. Our seats are almost always down or there is no one sitting in them.

You would think I would be better off with a pickup? No actually. Because when I do haul passengers, I want some place to put them comfortably. And in 12 years I have only used the 3rd row about 12 times, once per year.

Also note that having my stuff in a safe, secure, clean, controlled environment is also valuable. That does not happen in a pickup unless I purchase a shell which then turns the pickup into an SUV of sorts. And I don't see too many BEV pickups. Also I don't need to trailer anything.

Don't forget the most popular SUV for years was the Ford Bronco, which was just a pickup with a firmly attached shell and nicer seating. And they even let you take the shell off, but few ever did.

So my use of the utility feature seems to be almost the opposite of yours which is understandable and acceptable. If Tesla can make a folding seat that is also comfortable, we both win.

Ankit Mishra | 7 October 2015

Hmmm. Thats bad. How are going to make X work for you? Maybe 6 seat will help. Otherwise you might have to wait till folding seats arrive.

damonmath | 7 October 2015

I think the gripes about the third and second row seats are warranted. The X is an SUV... Sports UTILITY Vehicle. The emphasis on utility is somewhat lost when you sacrifice that utility for the "wow" or "coolness" factor of the Falcon Wing Doors. That same utility is lost by not allowing a luggage rack on top. As is, I can do more utilitarian tasks with my Model S than with the X. The X seems to be more of a human transportation vehicle (HTV) than an SUV.

I read an article (somewhere on FB I believe) that mentioned that the X was nothing more than a stepping stone for Uber... Auto presenting doors, easy ingress for the third row, panoramic everything, autopilot, etc... The first step in full autonomous taxis.

Personally, I'm waiting for the 70 version with completely removable second and third row seats. If I buy an SUV, I'd like to use it like an SUV.

aesculus | 7 October 2015

@Ankit Mishra: I concur with your assessment. But in the mean time I need to get all the other people who feel similar to inform Tesla of their dilemma too. Otherwise it will look like 1:30,000. And those aren't good odds.

So we need to support Tesla in selling what they have, but encourage them to also support what their original target was. Win/Win.

brandonarbini | 7 October 2015

I don't know if I've seen it stated definitively anywhere yet, but I just spoke with the "Build My X" team and they confirmed that they intend to deliver all Signature orders by the end of the year. I know I've seen speculation, but this came directly from someone on the team. My order gets confirmed and locked in today (#929), so I hope it's true. :)

hateToShift | 7 October 2015

@Ross: "If TSLA admitted next to no cars are coming soon the stock price will crash 50%."

I concur. Scary thought as much of my savings toward my future S or X are in TSLA shares!

Mark Z | 7 October 2015

A crossover fits the description of Model X to a tee. The CUV is for Crossover Utility Vehicle while the SUV is a Sport Utility Vehicle that is "usually equipped with four-wheel drive for on-road or off-road ability." "Crossovers are typically designed for only light off-road capability, if any at all."

You will find the Tesla Model X listed on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossover_(automobile)

No reference to Tesla on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sport_utility_vehicle

Please take some time and read both of those Wikipedia pages. If Tesla Motors creates a future truck, and then creates a utility vehicle from that chassis, that's when I would expect a Model U SUV.

Mark Z | 7 October 2015

URLs with an ending parenthesis did not turn into a link. I will add a space at the end:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossover_(automobile)

If it is red, then click it. If it is not red, then copy and paste into your browser.

EVino | 7 October 2015

Model X chassis on production lines during today's factory tour.

carlk | 7 October 2015

@damonmath My wife, who will be the owner of our X, actually was talking about using the X as an Uber car the other day. That would be a great fun.

More seriously what Tesla is really making it is an executive car for celebrities and Chinese tycoon types. What else could be more satisfying for those people entering or exiting the car with wide open falcon wing door and paparazzi snaping photos? How graceful would it be if they don't have to bend down to get in the car? If you still don't think so think people in which part of the world could benefit from the HEPA filter the best and which country Porsche sells the most Cayenne. Yes I think Cayenne's glory days are officially over.

Red Sage ca us | 8 October 2015

High hopes, and a little old ant.

Tâm | 8 October 2015

@Ankit Mishra

5) "There is enough info in my opinion for a person to finalise his order if folding is not an issue."

One week after the Launch Event, now we heard of:

1) mysterious 3.4 seconds in the e-mail came from nowhere.

http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/only-34s-060

2) 3,500 pound towing capacity for 22" wheels and all this time, people thought it's 10,000 and then revised to 5,000 and then this?

http://my.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/class-3-towing-capability

Pungoteague_Dave | 8 October 2015

The new 3,500-pound towing limits says this is NOT an SUV. That thing will barely tow two jet skis with a galvanized trailer. It cannot tow five of the nine trailers on our farm's trailer row. At best, it's a crossover, but in reality, the X is a low-content minivan with silly doors. Yuck.

hobowankenobi | 8 October 2015

I have to agree, I think it is a mistake to call it an SUV, as it is such it means too many different things to too many people. Crossover is closer, and ironically would explain the X: Xover.

But having said that, I think it was also naive for to think it would be truck-like SUV, or a serious off-road machine. It is what I expected: a bad-ass people mover with quite a bit of room, that is sexy and refined.

Closer to a Suburu Outback, or a X series BMW than a Land Cruiser. I don't know about where others live, but around here, Outback-like vehicles are dominant, even at much higher price points like the german models. How many BMW, MB, Range Rover, or the similar so-called SUVs do you see tow anything? Ever??

Honestly, most are sexy, well appointed, fabulous mini-vans....at least that's how they are used. I see the X as going straight at the market (for better or for worse).

----

To the point of disenchantment about the on-going delays....yes, it stinks. But, we should all acknowledge that regardless of the frustration, anxiety, and and tension caused by delays and missed dead-lines, there is one thing much, much worse:

A rushed product that is a failure.

rbucich | 8 October 2015

"it goes to 11"

The audio system that is...
One of the first things I noticed driving my S off the lot (for the very first time) in 2012
This small fact gives me a great deal of confidence in the company...there are folks at Tesla with a nice sense of humor

Still makes me smile that such a small element was incorporated because it says subtle things about the org structure. In a rule by committee environment, you could kiss stuff like this goodbye. Someone said "we're doing it this way" and moved ahead. I suspect some of the other things folks complain about were dealt with in similar manners, this "Y item" is bogging us down, cut it out and move on. It means some desired features are lost but the company can deliver a great product with the core components in tact. In the case of the X, that's the falcon wing doors.

There were some rough edges on the early model S deliveries, but far fewer issues than even the more optimistic folks anticipated. That says a lot.

condo_minimum_logic | 8 October 2015

res. # 833 I have ordered the car. the line is moving but I do not know how fast. tesla wants to deliver all the sig. cars by the end of the year. the 3500 lb tow rating is only for the 22 inch wheels because of clearance limits.

Ross1 | 14 October 2015

Nothing has changed

Lyon Sr. | 14 October 2015

When thinking about actual production of the X don't forget the ramp up history of the S. My reservation number for Sig S was in the low 400s. The first cars and the big splash were at the end of June 2012. Tesla announced their production rate very regularly and the reasons for the very slow ramp up then. At first, they produced only one car a day, perhaps fewer. Mostly it was parts, training of workers AND training for the robot construction "crew". The ramp up seemed excruciatingly slow to me at the time. I believe it was late August or into September before Tesla had produced 100 Signature series Model S cars, two months or more. By early October, Tesla produced 100 cars a week. I finally received my car on October 23rd.

In 2012 Tesla had never run a real assembly line. Everything was new. Many suppliers produced faulty parts or simply did not take the volume of the order seriously. Those suppliers fell away (most were pushed). All that took time. I expect Tesla will ramp up faster now than it did in 2012, but it will still take a month or more before cars in any number start to come off the line. Even if there are no supplier issues this time (unlikely), setting up and fine tuning the plant is not a trivial process. I don't want my X to ship until it is as nearly perfect as possible.

By the way, 48k miles on the Sig S and still loving it.

georgehawley.fl.us | 14 October 2015

Didn't Elon publicly state that he expected a faster ramp up for the X than the S?

TonyInNH | 14 October 2015

Yes, but I believe he also stated that they were being constrained by one if his suppliers getting out components fast enough. Understandingly he didn't want to mention any suppliers by name.

Ross1 | 14 October 2015

50 to 55 k this year includes a big swag of Xs

TonyInNH | 14 October 2015

I believe Elon already mentioned they weren't gonna make the expected allotment of X's due to the constraints I mentioned. I don't think they'll have full ramp up until Jan/Feb 2016.

medplex | 14 October 2015

I agree with Ross. The company has said they intend to deliver 50000 - 55000 cars this year. On the other hand most people on this forum seems to think that, at best,they will work their way through the Signature Series in calendar year 2015 i.e. about 1500 cars. If we assume that S series deliveries are 35000 for the year this implies a shortfall in deliveries of 15000 cars. How is Wall Street going to react when the company revises down its delivery estimates by that number???

JohnGlenney | 14 October 2015

Took a tour of the factory yesterday and observed a number of model x on the line and toward the end near the finish point. Some times toward the beginning it was difficult to tell an s from an x untill the tour guide pointed out the spine running down the middle of the top for falcon wing support. At this point x was less than 10% of total but clearly they are coming.

AlMc | 14 October 2015

@medplex: My math skills have deteriorated over the years..but...TM has already delivered about 33,000 model Ss thru the end of Q3 IIRC. So, while I won't claim to know if they will hit a total delivery number of 50K, even if they deliver 0 Xs they should be able to hit 45-46K bare minimum Ss alone.

georgehawley.fl.us | 14 October 2015

@P_D: I wonder if you may be missing something in concluding that the X will only tow a 3500 lb. load? It is my understanding that 3500 is the rating as opposed to the actual load it can pull with 22" tires. The rating with 20" tires is 5000 lbs., is it not? To add to this I have been told by a Sig. Reservation holder who is in need of somewhat greater towing capacity that the X will actually tow up to 7000 lbs with 20" tires but not enough to qualify for the next higher rating. Some of this is only hearsay but you might want to check into this before forming conclusions.

ian t.wa.us | 14 October 2015

Encouraging news! Thanks JohnGlenney!

johnse | 15 October 2015

@TonyInNH: the range of 50K-55K was the aforementioned drop in estimate. Prior to the Q2 earnings call, Tesla was predicting a solid 55K

@medplex: Tesla announced that they had delivered slightly more vehicles in Q3 than in Q2 bringing the total to over 33K for the year. That's with a week of having the factory closed.

I agree with @AIMc's supposition that MS will reach mid-40's. I think we'll see 500 produced in October, 1500 in November and 3-4K in December. Some of those may slip to January for delivery.

I also suspect that with the release of the V7 software, we'll see Sig owners begin to get delivery dates as well.