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Is 10,000 per week possible?

Is 10,000 per week possible?

If I remember correctly, 10,000 production per week was the goal of Model 3. This volume would allow the base $35,000 to be profitable. At 5,000 a week it is not profitable.
I’m not a assembly line expert, my question is for those that may have some expertise in that field, is the 10,000 per week a reasonable attainable goal assuming all the ducks are in a row, meaning no parts supplier issues, battery pack production can keep up, employees are available to work etc....
Or maybe a better question would be can the GF supply the 10,000 per week needed battery packs?
If I read correctly one of the early roadblocks to increasing production was the GF had some production issues.
From a simple production viewpoint, battery or cars, is 10,000 a week a reasonable attainable goal?

sschaem | 10 October 2018

Tesla seem to be running at 7000 car a week (many dual motors) average for the past 12 weeks. (83K delivery to customer in the last 90 days) So Tesla has little incentive to build the lower profit M3.

Tesla should be able to ramp up past 7K a week in Q4, but dont expect much $35K M3 even then. But we should know a lot more soon .

Pepperidge | 10 October 2018

The factory was producing half a million ICE cars per year so making more than 10,000 EV (less components to assemble) per week with 24/7 shift should be possible.

Tropopause | 10 October 2018

Yes!

David N | 10 October 2018

I just read a news piece this morning that Tesla just surpassed MB in U.S. sales.
I expect Tesla to surpass BMW and Audi by end it 3rd or 4th qtr.

jimglas | 10 October 2018

with news like that, the stock price is sure to drop

efuseakay | 10 October 2018

Not with the VIN 95xxx I saw yesterday. It looked like a drunk ape with glaucoma assemblesd it.

jordanrichard | 10 October 2018

While it is great to read all these stories that are really just regurgitating the same sales figures, about the Model 3, just remember that they are working through a back log of orders. What will be a serious bel weather of the 3’s real popularity is if the number of new reservations/orders placed is keeping pace or exceeding what is being delivered.
Perhaps, but I am not counting on it, Elon will say or hint what the current level of remaining orders there are for the 3.

kcheng | 10 October 2018

The OP was asking about M3 production reaching 10k, not overall production. The three bottlenecks we know of, are batteries, paint and delivery. Since the OP was asking about production, lets set aside delivery for now. Ramping up the paint shop to double the production rate would seem to be hard given that Tesla has had to streamline its paint offerings already, and the problems with paint quality already seem taxed to the limit. Do they need another paint line to increase production? Who knows, can someone ask Elon if it's not too boring? Then, there are the batteries. Just by going from LR batteries to SR battery production, you could increase the number of battery packs from 5000 to 7500. And, didn't Panasonic say they'll put in a couple more production lines? Should solve any battery production capacity issue going forward.

ravisundaramam | 10 October 2018

Batteries will not be the bottleneck anymore. Panasonic said the capacity of GF Nevada went up to 35 GWh from 20 GWh using existing facilities. GF1 is only 33% built. It has land available to ramp up to 105 GWh. So it would not be an issue.

Paint shop is an issue. They can do some optimization by batch building. But it is going to be difficult to ramp up there. Capital crunch is on, and it is not easy to raise money build more paint shops.

Ross1 | 10 October 2018

No.
It has always been my contention that you can get all the batteries, extra paint shops but getting one per minute out the door will be the problem. Called a bottleneck, a logjam. Delivery Hell.
Ford splits production over 86 odd factories, Toyota likewise, Tesla just one.
Of course there is a logistics nightmare.
With a factory in China, it will split the numbers. Maybe they will build Model Y in China.

Al1 | 10 October 2018

No doubt this is attainable goal. Pretty sure this will be discussed at the next shareholder meeting and will be announced as a next milestone for the coming 12 months.

Al1 | 10 October 2018

Besides Fremont Tesla plans production in Nevada GF1, is expanding its assembly facility in Netherlands and accelerates construction of GF in China.

However speaking of Fremont Elon Musk was always pointing out 500000 cars are possible there. That's roughly your 10 k cars a week.

Ross1 | 11 October 2018

Yes, Toyota-GM have a history there of 500,000 cars pa.
But EM said that before he tried to do it.
What method did Toyota-GM use to get them out the door at one every minute? Hasnt the railhead been ripped out? Does rail exist at Freemont?
What are we actually trying to do that T-GM already solved?

David N | 11 October 2018

Is there a current manufacturer putting out 10,000 per week at an assembly plant?
Is Elon shooting for 10,000 based on traditional assembly techniques or was that based on his previous “Alien Dreadnaught” concept where robots would assemble at an unprecedented rate?

Al1 | 11 October 2018

I'd rather wait for quarterly call before engaging into how it is possible or why it is not. I'd be very surprised to hear from Elon Musk something like "I've tried and failed. We can't make 500,000 cars in Fremont. Shouldn't have ripped out rail".

Quite sure he'll get back to that targeted number of 10,000 some time in 2019. By the way, with dual motors one can reach profitability at a much lower number. Tesla is possibly already there.

Madatgascar | 11 October 2018

Tesla is more vertically integrated than Toyota and GM were with NUMMI. They are doing much more with the space - even building the seats there. T-GM were just assembling components built elsewhere and used far fewer people to do it. My understanding is that Fremont is pretty much bursting at the seams at a run rate that annualizes to 350,000 cars per year.

jordanrichard | 11 October 2018

Madatgascar +1. For most car companies they make their own body shells, paint the cars and make engines and transmissions. Everything else comes from outside suppliers. So essentially they are kit builders.

SamO | 11 October 2018

Yes, 10K is possible, probable, and Fremont at max production (with extra "tents") is ~ 700,000.

Elon's comments about 10,000 additional Sparks Giga employees and on-site housing means that I infer an announcement that Sparks will be producing motors, inverters, Tesla Semi, Roadster and lower probability, Model Y.

I don't think that the gigafactory got less automated than expected, however, IMO, Tesla optimized their footprint with lessons from Fremont.

I expect convoy/platoons of Semis to be rolling the roads between the two major centers within the next 6 months as their "test fleet" expands to provide (internal) low-cost trucking services and vehicle delivery. I only have wild-ass guesses about the total number, but somewhere in the order of 100 sounds right. Demand externally for the Semi should be similar to Model 3 once it is on the road.

william | 12 October 2018

I went on a tour of the Volkswagen plant in Germany, and if memory servers they are building 5K cars per DAY at that one plant. And this includes a lot of customized configurations on the assembly line. It was actually very impressive. Electric cars have about 1/3 of the number of components of ICE cars, so it would seem that this would make them easier to build at volume.

SamO | 12 October 2018

@william.

Your memory does NOT serve you. 3,800/day or 800,000 per year

https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/g2904/7-of-th...

Madatgascar | 12 October 2018

SamO, that info is from 3 years ago. I understand they can build 5000 per day now... but maybe that would be called a “burst”

Al1 | 13 October 2018

They may be able to make 5 k a day, but consistently day after day that averages out to 3,800.

However that's just capacity. Nobody makes as many cars as they can make. They usually make as many as they can sell. I've read somewhere carplants in Europe have capacity utilisation at about 70% (in North America 90%).

That's a big problem, because with low capacity profitability quickly goes down the rain.

Al1 | 13 October 2018

down the drain

Al1 | 13 October 2018

That information is most likely too old. Nobody will tolerate 70% utilisation for too long. They typically shut down factories to bring total utilization above 90%.

mos6507 | 15 October 2018

"The factory was producing half a million ICE cars per year"

Under more competent management.

Sleepydoc1 | 15 October 2018

Why did it close under "more competent management?"

mos6507 | 15 October 2018

[Why did it close under "more competent management?"]

Not relevant to the discussion.

Sleepydoc1 | 15 October 2018

Because I quoted you and asked a question.

Rocky_H | 15 October 2018

@Sleepydoc1 +1

Rocky_H | 15 October 2018

Nicely done, @Sleepydoc, pointing out how @mos is such a douchebag hypocrite. He'll sling mud at Tesla about how former high production numbers at NUMMI was due to GM/Toyota's supposedly good competent management, but failure and collapse and being sold off for pennies has nothing to do with management and is irrelevant.

David N | 16 October 2018

@kcheng
You bring up a good point, I forgot about all the paint issues. I would think that they would’ve known about paint production capability ahead of time. I remember reading about how it’s the latest and greatest available. So what was the issue in the paint shop not being able to keep up and not putting out the quality that each of us expect car after car?
Is it fixable to reach the goal of 10k per week while maintaining the quality we all (and Elon) expects?

jimglas | 16 October 2018

My paint is fine
On both cars