2170 battery life expectancy

2170 battery life expectancy

Could the new 2170 battery greatly improve on the 18650's already great reliability? Interesting article at Electrek:

"If made into a car battery pack, 1,200 cycles would translate to roughly 300,000 miles (480,000 km) – meaning that a battery pack could still retain about 95% of its original energy capacity after ~300,000 miles – or 25 years at the average 12,000 miles per year."

g_g.tatham | 4 May 2017

Present batteries may be like aging computers. An EV battery research claims that layering the battery rather than boxing it side-by-side could get 600 miles per charge. It will be tested in a car in 2020.

dyefrog | 5 May 2017

Is this really that much of a stretch to what they do now? The Tesla loop cars still had about 94% of their original range after 200k miles even if the computer/software read differently. Maybe one of their other cars will break the 300k mile barrier next year and they can pull data from that.
Those batteries though are not typical as they are almost exclusively supercharged every day which has been shown to add to the battery health despite warnings to the contrary.

slasher0016 | 5 May 2017

Ignore Eagle, supercharging has not proven to be detrimental to batteries. Eagles is spewing his usual trash.

dyefrog | 5 May 2017

"But they didn't have any range left."
Still batting 1000 I see.

"Though the CAR DIDN'T ACTUALLY LOSE ANY RANGE, the estimator would say it could go another ten miles — and then power down"
My emphasis

Frank99 | 5 May 2017

E -
Your reading comprehension is suspect. Please re-read the article. "Though the car didn’t actually lose any range" "Could go ANOTHER 10 miles".
It shut down 10 miles before the software thought it was going to.
This is vastly different than how you apparently read it.

dyefrog | 6 May 2017

"But they didn't have any range left. As Tesla noted the software in the car was misreporting the battery state"

What you fail to acknowledge is that when the car powered down when the estimator claimed it still had 10 miles of range, it had already gone over 200 miles.

Frank99 | 6 May 2017

"But had the firmware been updated, we’d be fine and plugging along.”
The reader unfamiliar with Eagles take on alt-facts is invited to read the original source material and make their own conclusion:

mntlvr23 | 6 May 2017

Much like claiming that a car with a broken starter has a seized engine because it won't start - it doesn't really matter how the manufacturer chooses to fix it, the facts are the facts

Frank99 | 6 May 2017

"Could not be recharged" is a conclusion that doesn't appear to be borne out by anything resembling facts. Once again, I invite readers to review the original source material:

Ehninger1212 | 7 May 2017

@ Frank99

Don't worry, MOST of us can read. In fact this is one of the articles that made me feel even more comfortable believing in the longevity of tesla batteries, and I'm sure there technology has advanced exponentially since the tesloop car was purchased.

I can always accept some degradation over time, heck ICE engines get worse over time as well, losing gas mileage and horsepower. But the degradation of Tesla appears to be better than I had anticipated.

mntlvr23 | 7 May 2017

@Ehninger1212. - "In fact this is one of the articles that made me feel even more comfortable believing in the longevity of tesla batteries"

It is funny how Eagles posts are often counterproductive to his goals. For me also, I was originally leery about going with a BEV, concerned about battery life and replacement costs - but thanks to PDX, I have been steered to countless legitimate articles that have allayed these fears and make me very very comfortable with Tesla battery technology

Thank you Eagles, for your repetitive false and disingenuous posts. (but if I were GM, I would take you off the payroll.)

greg | 7 May 2017

So you keep saying, and saying and saying like they will be true if only you can repeat them enough times as uickyl as possible.

Wheres the evidence for ANY and ALL of those conclusions you keep saying is so?

The Tesloop article cited above? Well none of those "Facts" you maintain as truths are contained in there.

The Tesloop guy said:

1. The range estimator was 10 miles short and stopped the car too early due to a (stated by Tesla) firmware issue not 'cos the batter was poked.
2. The battery was still able to be charged, so clearly was not poked.
3. If car wouldn't go when it was low on miles left in the battery it was because the firmware in the BMS errantly overrode the drive instructions from the driver, not 'cos the battery was poked or smoked.
4. Tesla replaced the battery 'cos their firmware update was 3 months away for free and they probably didn't want to give Tesloop a loaner for 3 months - not because it had a warranty issue and Telsa wanted to simply STFU the customer, like say GM would.
5. Tesla always does the right thing for its customers. Customer service - see thats what Telsa is about from the get go.
6. No such statement were provided that Tesla only does the "bare minimum warranty" such as replacement of failed components, in fact Tesla went above and beyond, just because they wanted to, not because they were trying to STFU a customer.

These are all evident facts, from the Tesloop acrticle.
Completely unlike your futile "repeat after me with stuff I made up" trolling attempts which always come across as so ridiculous that no one believes you ever.

Show some hard evidence for your conclusions.
Or go away with your silly wankfest of self indulgence.

dyefrog | 8 May 2017

"But they didn't have any range left"

After 250 miles I wouldn't expect any.
One time my gas gauge said I had about 1/16 of a tank left. I should have another 30 miles but I ran out. I should have asked the manufacturer to replace my engine.

minervo.florida | 8 May 2017

I thought we agreed to stop responding the Eaglespdx. He is irrelevant.

dyefrog | 8 May 2017

You're right. My bad.

akgolf | 8 May 2017

Eagles who?

jordanrichard | 8 May 2017

Though these "life expectancy" threads and ensuing theories still persist, no one with any authority says what is the considered the "end of life" for a battery pack? Often 70% of original miles is quoted, but I categorically don't agree with that. 70% of 265 is 185 miles. Well, that is still plenty of range to do a road trip, especially considering the ever increasing number of superchargers.

jacknleela | 8 May 2017

"no one with any authority says what is the considered the "end of life" for a battery pack?"

As far as the warranty is concerned, isn't it better than 80% of original capacity for 8 years or unlimited miles?

Red Sage ca us | 8 May 2017

jacknleela: No. Some here wish there were some sort of specific degradation number that Tesla would adhere to, but they do not, and personally I don't blame them. There is no need to publicize a given number as either an expectation of degradation or a guaranteed point of warranty replacement for a long range vehicle. It is far more critical for short range vehicles that couldn't have made half the distance between remote Superchargers even when new. But if a 70% charge is still enough to go 150+ miles, you are just fine in a Tesla that still has twice the range of compliance cars from traditional automobile manufacturers used as grocery getters. Don't worry about it.

david.jones24 | 8 May 2017

+1 Red Sage

Couldn't have said it better myself

jordanrichard | 9 May 2017

Red Sage +1 .

akgolf | 9 May 2017

Absolutely Red!

dyefrog | 9 May 2017

Red Sage, especially true as the Supercharger network and destination chargers become more ubiquitous.

KP in NPT | 9 May 2017

Some new Tesla battery news - future is bright for 2170 batteries.

Frank99 | 9 May 2017

A year ago, I was concerned about how to maximize battery life in my model 3. After all the study over the last year, i realize i just don't care-every thing indicates the batteries are going to last the life of the car, and as dyefrog noted more chargers make concern even less important. That said, i still want KPs better batteries...

KP in NPT | 9 May 2017

With the minimal degradation so far with our Model S 18650 cells, I am not at all worried either. I just watched the presentation. While I do not pretend to have much of a scientific leaning, and am most certainly not a battery expert, I found it very interesting. While they cut video when he started talking about his work so far at Tesla, the quote from the Q&A was very positive:

" In the description of the [Tesla] project that we sent to NSERC (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada) to get matching funds from the government for the project, I wrote down the goal of doubling the lifetime of the cells used in the Tesla products at the same upper cutoff voltage. We exceeded that in round one. OK? So that was the goal of the project and it has already been exceeded. "

It sounds like the new cells will have less degradation. curious if they are already using this electrolyte in current 18650s.

akgolf | 9 May 2017

Future looks good!

jordanrichard | 9 May 2017

"He added that considering Tesla’s use of aluminum in its chassis, there’s no reason why both the cars and the batteries couldn’t last 20 years." and to add to KP in NPT's comments, does this quote speaking about the 18650 cells in our cars or the new cells being built in NV? I assume when he says "use of aluminum in its chassis" he means the batteries. Though he could be literally speaking about the car, but car's being around for 20 years is nothing new.

KP in NPT | 9 May 2017

@Jr - he was referring to the car chassis. The context was that since the car is made from aluminum, it won't rust. That along with a 20 year + battery, he said there is no reason to believe the car won't be on the road for 20 years.

jordanrichard | 9 May 2017

Ok, so was he speaking about the current 18560 cells lasting as long? As a follow up and this brings up a question I have asked numerous times, what is the determining factor for when a battery is done for, finished, kaput? He says 20 years, great, what happens at year 20 to say that the battery is finished?

KP in NPT | 9 May 2017

"was he speaking about the current 18560"

That is unclear. He just started working with tesla last summer - he said that his first pass at the (degradation) problem exceeded their expectations. Is it possible that technology is already in 18650s? I suppose - but he didn't say.

"what is the determining factor for when a battery is done for"

Well, what I've seen referenced in various places (the latest in Tony Seba's RethinkX and also by Dahn in this video) is 80%.

But that isn't to say the battery is unusable. Just that it has reduced range. Seba pointed out that it could be recycled and replaced, repurposed to stationary storage, or still used if the owner's driving patterns weren't disrupted by the degradation.

However, if I am understanding the presentation correctly, this new electrolyte yielded results where the battery didn't degrade below 95% in 20 years. So, the question might be moot. ;)

tstolz | 9 May 2017

Great news - 18650s right now look like they will last 10 years and the new cells are twice as good ... so 20.

Considering the 18650s are also tracking like they may hit 500,000 miles ... 1 million miles is suddenly looking possible!

... and we haven't even talked about how the batteries could then have a second life in grid storage!!!

tstolz | 9 May 2017

You know ... this news basically cuts battery prices in half since they now last twice as long!

El Mirio | 9 May 2017

Just wanted to point out that car battery (NCA) is different from storage battery (NMC), the improvements are for the storage NMC battery, whether these improvements can be applied to car battery (NCA) i don't know.

It’s also important to note that Dahn’s research was focusing on Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) battery cells, which Tesla uses for its stationary storage products (Powerwall and Powerpack), and the first cell production at Gigafactory 1 was for those products.

KP in NPT | 9 May 2017

True El Mirio - but then he did mention NCA batteries.

"For the batteries in its vehicles, Tesla uses Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide (NCA) and Dahn said that they are also working on this chemistry. Tesla and Panasonic are planning to start production of battery cells for vehicles, starting with the Model 3, at Gigafactory 1 by June 2017.

He added that considering Tesla’s use of aluminum in its chassis, there’s no reason why both the cars and the batteries couldn’t last 20 years.

So...I think that by him adding that about the battery + chassis, we can infer there have been improvements there as well.

El Mirio | 9 May 2017

Ohh i missed that! There is no doubt in my mind that Tesla will continue to improve their products continuously, and probably have some great surprises up their sleeve!

mos6507 | 12 May 2017

"It's likely that the in production 2170 batteries for the T3 don't have the new formula noted as the 2170's were designed and ordered close to a year ago."

Yep. Unless Tesla makes it part of their PR, I'm not buying that the T3 will have these magical batteries. This is speculation run amok.

Coastal Cruiser. | 12 May 2017

This just in:

Unnecessary violence in the removal of EaglesPDX from this board... has been approved

Red Sage ca us | 13 May 2017

'The FUGITIVE', 'Ferris Bueller's Day Off', and 'The Blues Brothers' all make Chicago IL seem like a nice place to live. Then I remember Winter.

tstolz | 13 May 2017

Tesla doesn't use model years and instead continually improves its products. That way new car buyers get the latest and the best. It looks like original chemistry batteries already will easily last the life of the car, the new ones just take it a step further.

I'm excited about what this means for the value of the car battery for its second life as grid storage. Even a well used Tesla will be worth a lot for its battery.

Iwantmy3 | 13 May 2017

#EaglePDX. "It's likely that the in production 2170 batteries for the T3 don't have the new formula noted as the 2170's were designed and ordered close to a year ago."

The 2170 batteries at the Gigafactory will be built in partnership between Tesla and Panasonic. They will not be restricted to technology or chemistries that existed a year ago. The only restriction will be w.r.t. how long is takes to implement such changes into the manufacturing process. This a key difference between Tesla's approach with such a partnership vs the competition's approach of contracting third parties.

Iwantmy3 | 14 May 2017

EaglesPDX "No. The restrictions are the ability to incorporate it into a production product and the cost of doing so, same as with current lion batteries."

I'm not sure how that is different from what I said. Cost is always part of what it takes. However, Tesla has a way of making things happen.

Red Sage ca us | 14 May 2017

When pigeons play chess, they knock over all the pieces, poop on the board, and declare victory prior to flying away. Unfortunately, they do not always fly away. Sometimes they hang around professing their strategy is always best no matter any logical arguments to the contrary.

Solution? Don't feed the pigeons.

Iwantmy3 | 14 May 2017

It's good to see we are in agreement now. I assume that can also agree that neither of us know the costs or manufacturing challenges associated with making these changes. They may be difficult, they may be easy.

What is clear is that the decisions and options are completely within Tesla's control. Other manufacturers using 3rd parties have little or no control over what is developed or when it is released. They do have to commit to their purchases based on current offerings and have little opportunity update them quickly regardless of cost or difficulty.

Frank99 | 14 May 2017

It's amazing how strained E's arguments get these days - it's like he's desperately trying to type the words and get them posted before they get obliviated.

Red Sage ca us | 15 May 2017

Desperation leads to further dispensation of FUD. Cleanup on aisle one!

Iwantmy3 | 15 May 2017

With E's comments gone, my responses to him seem oddly out of place.

jordanrichard | 15 May 2017

Iwantmy3, +1. When I read a thread that Eagles remarks have been deleted, you almost fell like you are not in a on the joke and keep wondering "what did I miss...."

Red Sage ca us | 15 May 2017

Shall we start a pool for the final date after launch of Model 3 that the 40% Pure Pigeon Poo Preacher will post his last squawk around here?

Frank99 | 15 May 2017

He's got a good future in front of him. Every time a Model 3 has a flat tire, we can expect Eagles to post a "Tesla uses substandard rubber" post. Every time Tesla halts the line for a day to fix a problem, it'll be "Tesla ships defective cars". Every time there's a line at a SuperCharger, he'll post "Tesla cars can't roadtrip, because of the horrendous wait for proprietary chargers". And, for the next 4 or 5 years, he can keep posting his drivel about batteries.

The only thing I have to look forward to is delivery of my Model 3, which will let me wield the righteous sword of "Flag".