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Will there be a glut of used Model S when the X is released?

Will there be a glut of used Model S when the X is released?

I know a ton of people that own a Model S and just can't wait to get the X. Can't believe they will all want to keep their S too. Do you think the prices will come down on used Model S, once the X is out?

pvetesla | September 6, 2014

I can't wait to be "gas free"

Well, maybe not after Mexican food....but I will be enjoying both of my Tesla's!

Tâm | September 6, 2014

@scotttilson

Is there such a thing called 2 car garage?

Red Sage ca us | September 7, 2014

No.

Much more likely there will be a glut of used Porsche Cayenne, AUDI Q7, and BMW X5/X6 on the market.

Brian H | September 7, 2014

There will be some, but no "glut".

bevguy | September 7, 2014

Eventually when supply increases closer to demand Model S used prices will come down. And all other factors being equal the X should steal demand from the S. I think the X will be the real top seller.
OTOH only a small percentage of the potential market is more than vaguely aware of Tesla. You can go months where I live without even seeing one. Many who have heard of them think they are an expensive Leaf, and are unaware of charging facilities etc.
So far most Teslas have not been sold to conventional luxury car buyers, but to younger early adapter types. By definition mainstream buyers participate only when they see others in their peer group doing something. So both the S and X will help each other in sales.

NumberOne | September 7, 2014

Believe it or not, but a pretty large number of Model S owners can actually afford to have both.

Red Sage ca us | September 7, 2014

bevguy wrote, "Eventually when supply increases closer to demand Model S used prices will come down."

I take it you mean, they will 'come down' from 110%-120% to a lowly 70%-80% instead? ;-)

"And all other factors being equal the X should steal demand from the S."

Nah. There will be no 'theft'. The Model X will simply sell at a much higher rate, especially in the United States of America. Model S will likely level off at around 50,000 units per year. The Model X will probably outsell it by a 3:1 ratio.

Brian H | September 7, 2014

bevguy: So far most Teslas have not been sold to conventional luxury car buyers, but to younger early adapter types.

Not hardly. Average purchaser age is >50, most of whom can be called "early adopters" only at a stretch. Many are quite shocked to find themselves spending so much, or for such an early run vehicle.

bevguy | September 7, 2014

Brian you must be young, because being an early adapter has nothing to do with age. See Technology Adaption Life Cycle. Look it up. In fact some innovations almost by necessity were first taken up by old people- artificial hip joints etc.

And as a definitely not young guy I was not shocked to find myself spending so much. I knew what I was doing. Which is why I could afford a Tesla.

And Tesla buyers are indeed on average a bit younger than most Luxury car buyers. See board postings, the average age seems to be in the mid 40s. The age of expensive car buyers obviously has to do with money, unless you are a trust baby ,few 20 year olds can afford a Tesla.

car buyer age http://forums.vwvortex.com/showthread.php?5682995-Average-Age-of-Car-Buy...

An almost perfect bell shaped curve.
Tesla not listed , so nobody knows for sure, but anecdotal evidence of a relatively young age is strong.

OTOH the Tesla BOD is also on average younger than the BOD of most car companies. A lot of the top employees seem younger than Detroit types too.

Iowa92x | September 7, 2014

Their is not a glut of Model S, period, so your answer is no.

Brian H | September 8, 2014

bevguy;
Quoting you: "not ... sold to conventional luxury car buyers, but to younger early adapter types". (The phrase is "early adopter", by the way.

The "seems to be" age is too low. It has been documented several times that it's >51, about middle of the pack for premium and luxury cars. Maybe a bit younger, but not much. (Buick is about 65, btw, probably the highest!)

toby_wan_kenoby | September 9, 2014

There WILL BE >a glut of used Model S compared to current market conditions.
There will NOT be glut of used Model S compared to demand for used MS cars.

GLO | September 9, 2014

We will be keeping our Model S and happily going gas free!!! Yeah!

georgehawley.fl.us | September 9, 2014

I feel that Model S has just scratched the surface of its addressable share of the 15 million vehicle US market, not to mention markets outside the US.
The few MS's that show up from MX replacements will not be significant against waves of new buyers. Whereas, traditional luxury sedans like MB S series, Lexus LS and BMW 700s address a narrow market of relatively wealthy buyers, the Model S seems to cut across multiple classes of buyers. It wouldn't be surprising to see Tesla with a few months backlog of orders for both S and X going into 2016, even with a 2000 vehicle per week run rate.

The cars keep getting better and Tesla hasn't even begun to advertise or play with prices.

It's really going to be cool when Tesla shows up with a pick-up truck.

Brian H | September 9, 2014

twk;
Since "glut" means excess, the answer is "NO".

carlk | September 9, 2014

Nay. Not from me at least. Wife will get an X but I want my S.

rdalcanto | September 10, 2014

The wife is getting the X. I'm keeping my S.

jjs | September 10, 2014

My wife may not take delivery of our X. I will purchase anyway and either sell my S and drive the X or sell the X. To have an S and X is my first choice. However I betting demand is going to push delivery dates out to a very uncomfortable level and selling the X should be fairly easy.

krissu | September 13, 2014

S is a drivers car, X is fast and green means of transport, expensive though...

PapaSmurf | September 14, 2014

I don't think people will be selling their Model S. More likely it will be an opportunity for owners to get rid of their last gas car.

When our Model X arrives, it is replacing our Prius and we become a pure EV garage.

I drive the Model S (with rear jump seats), my wife gets the Model X.
4 kids, so we actually need the space.

My oldest child hits 16 years of age around 2018, so it is perfect timing for the Model 3 to arrive for him.

toby_wan_kenoby | September 15, 2014

@scotttilson

Just use common sense. There will be 3 groups of Model S owners in connection with Model X.

Keep Model S and not buy Model X
Keep Model S and buy Model X
Sell Model S and buy Model X

It is clear that vs. the current state of "no Model X available", there will be more used Model S for sale.

As for glut is a different question. By the time the Model X is for sale to non current reservation owners (estimate 10/2015) there will be some 70k Model S on the market. Lets assume that no one will sell their Model S to switch to a Model X if MS is purchased after 1/2015 (assumed Model X Design Studio launch). So the population of potential Model S for sale would be around 50k.

Of those 50k MS there will be only about 30k in the US.

My guess is that the natural sales without any Model X reason is about 1% of the MS population per year so 300 used MS cars US wide. (very low % as the car is relatively new) Potentially even lower.

I would then think that about 30% of MS owners are interested in owning the MX. So a crowd of 9k.

Of those I would guess that 20% can not afford or do not need two "expensive" cars. So a population of 1800.

I would think that that number of used Model S will hit the market over the course of a year. So it is a large number vs. what is currently on offer for used cars (300 per years vs 300+1800 per year).

But it is a very small number vs. the current demand for new MS (about 500 per week)

So overall I think the supply generated by the introduction of the Model X will be gobbled up by the market quite easily.

proven | September 15, 2014

We're planning to replace our minivan with the Model X. Definitely not getting rid of the Model S! I'm still a bit nervous about not having an ICE as there are still a few places we go that are tricky to get to with an EV. But maybe in a year or two it won't be an issue anymore.

SamO | September 15, 2014

It's helpful to define "glut" before arguing the merits of the proposition.

"an excessively abundant supply of something."

Not likely.

"more than currently exist."

Definitely.

But the used car market demand for the MS is very strong. Prices are 20% less than purchase cost (minus presumptive US Federal credit) by my surveys of eBay.

Much more likely scenario for Model S owners to finally give up their 3rd ICE car (van, older SUV, pickup truck).

Brian H | September 15, 2014

One of the factors affecting used MS pricing is the new delivery wait time. When that dipped to a few weeks for a while, prior to the opening of the Euro market deliveries, used MS prices dropped somewhat from near new levels. Now that the Wait is back, prices seem to be reflecting the chance to bypass it again.

bevguy | September 29, 2014

Just an opinion, but while the S and X may both appeal to some users, others want only one. I wanted a sporty car, don't have a large family, and would be un-interested in buying an X. But I love my S.

So why did Tesla bring out the S first? Because they thought they could get more free PR , and because early early adapters were more likely to be interested in a sorts type car. I consider the S to be a 4 door Ferrari, but one that is reliable and practical for every day use. The X owners will be later type early adapters . And hopefully the Gen 3 will become mainstream, jumping the BEV chasm.

Resale values of luxo cars has always been poor for the first year or two, because potential used car buyers usually have the funds to buy new . The Tesla has held up well, presumably because new ones are not always promptly available. Personally I don't care because I will keep mine for years.

Napoleonblownapart | October 16, 2014

Bevguy: Same. Keeping mine for YEARS!!! Went for a long drive today. Still in love. Best car in the universe.