I'm math guy. It's how I approach everything. Actually, let me back up and first say that I am NOT trying to imply in this post that people shouldn't be negative, have concerns, etc. This is NOT ANOTHER POST to say "You're dumb if you cancel" - it's truly me, trying to ask you, to help me understand what is happening. Because I don't.
It is now being reported that as many as 25% of original (U.S.??) reservation holders have requested cancellation. Let's be conservative and say that is closer to 20%. Because it doesn't really matter for my questions, so we'll low-ball it. I don't understand why. Are there perhaps some people who feel the SR won't ever happen? Sure, but not 20%. Are there people who have decided to get another vehicle or simply never get this one? Sure, but not 20% of the original line. Are there people whose financial situations have changed or feel they can no longer justify the Model 3? Again, yes, of course.. but not 20%. I would totally understand if ULTIMATELY 20% of people decided not to get it... but that's AFTER the car is announced, prices are disclosed, etc.
I placed my deposit, like the vast majority of these 20%, back in April of 2016. I can safely assume the vast majority because we always have glimpses into when orders showed up, and that's honestly when the vast majority were placed. It is hard to imagine that anything more than 2 or 3 percent of that group of people suddenly need their $1000 back urgently... which makes me wonder why you wouldn't just leave it on the line until your invite arrives. THEN you make the decision, but at least you hold your spot.
The ONLY thing that comes to mind is maybe it became an emotional decision for many out of anger on timing, pricing, whatever - so maybe it's just that - but I don't get it. Otherwise, maybe the TIMELINE of drops isn't being accurately reported and the 20% (25%) represents "since day 1" drops? That would make a bit more sense to me, but still not even really.