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2016 Used Model X Market

2016 Used Model X Market

I am currently getting ready to buy a Model X. A couple things have caught my attention.

1) When looking at the Autotrader website, there are 17 used 2016 Model S listings vs. 55 used 2016 Model X listings. I don't know how many of each of these models were sold in 2016, but this gets me a little concerned how many people are leaving the Model X so quickly. Thoughts?

2) I've seen lots of range information about the Model X. I live in a condo building in Santa Monica with no access to charge overnight or while home. I will have to rely solely on the Supercharging and public EV charging systems in the area. I drive up to 250 miles per week. Is this doable?

Thank you all in advance!

Conan_the_Contrarian | January 7, 2017

campari200,

The main thing that I would suggest is that you go check out the superchargers in your area during the times that you're likely to be charging. They might be overflowing with cars and require long wait times just to start charging. Or they might not. I suspect that your area is among the most crowded generally, but I might be wrong because I don't know exactly where you're likely to be charging. Verify for yourself. Or decide that you don't care about the wait times and charging times and then you don't need to worry about them.

As far as charging frequency, a lot will depend on how you drive and which Model X you get. But I'd guess that you'd need to charge once every 5-6 days. The rated range generally shows a higher number than you'll get in real life. If you're charging to the maximum battery charge, your charge times will take much longer than if you charge to only 80-90% each time. And Tesla says that repeated full battery charges aren't good for the battery's longevity, which you might or might not care about.

I don't have any comment on Model X quality. Many people here will tell you that they received a perfect car with no problems. Some here will tell you that they had a lot of problems. In other places online, you can see both sides repeated and described extensively. If you read both sides, then you can make your own fully informed judgment about it.

If your car does have problems, then you might need to make service appointments and you should know that parts often take a long time to arrive from wherever they originate. You might want to do your own test Monday. Call your local service centers and ask them for their next available appointments. They might tell you 3 weeks or 6 weeks or 8 weeks or tomorrow. Check it out if you care about this issue.

Those are my views. I hope that burdogg will also comment. He has a much more positive perspective on things generally than I have, but he always gives his honest opinion without extraneous motivations and he's always fair and good-natured.

CalabasasKid | January 7, 2017

IMHO, buying one of these cars without have any charging apparatus at home may be short sided. Besides the fact that you may be contributing to over crowding at the Culver City, Hawthorne and Manhattan Bch SC's, don't be too surprised if Tesla's next move to combat SC crowding is to limit use by locals. Trust me when I say they're contemplating this. SC's are solely designed for travelers passing through unless you're completely agreeable to using them at weird hours.
Tesla simply can't keep building the SC's on an unlimited basis. With all the new cars set to hit the roads in the next year or two, something will have to give. Good Luck

aesculus | January 7, 2017

2016 Model X's were delivered starting in Sept of 2015. 2016 Model S's did not start delivering until around June of 2016 I think. But I think the ratio was much higher for Model S than X but I don't have clue what it ended up as at the end of the year.

Conan_the_Contrarian | January 7, 2017

CalabasasKid, you make a good point that OP should definitely consider. I also think that they will (and they should) start limiting supercharger use by locals, so that's always a real danger. But do you think that they'll do it to cars delivered before January 15, 2017, which have been promised free lifetime supercharging? I think that many people will resist that kind of change for existing cars, but none of that means it won't happen.

Having said that, I agree generally that not having a charging solution at home would create a lot of inconvenience and complications for most.

CalabasasKid | January 7, 2017

I truly believe they will have no choice but to limit SC access to all of us who abuse it. It's only appropriate. Think of how ludicrous (no pun intended) it is to use a SC as your weekly filling station. It's quite rude and inconsiderate. Just because it's technically allowed doesn't make it right. TM could easily limit "local SC use"without contradicting their original pledge to all of us early buyers. After all, if we are truly traveling away from home, we would continue to have unlimited access to those stations. But stations within a certain radius, say 75 miles would come at a charge and I for one thinks it's about time. SC local hogs are gross and they're cheap and need to be reigned in.

Conan_the_Contrarian | January 7, 2017

I generally share your views on this topic. I'm probably a little more uncertain that they will cut off free local access to the unlimited supercharger cars, but I don't rule out the possibility.

inconel | January 8, 2017

@aesculus I am sure that 2016 Model S started deliveries since the beginning of 2016

@CalabasasKid I don't think restricting access to local supercharging is the solution. I think having many more local fast charging alternatives for condo dwellers who don't have access to charging at their homes is a better and more scaleable one.

CalabasasKid | January 8, 2017

@inconel. I agree. But that requires private property owners to get their act together. Until then, Tesla may feel they need to act sooner

elguapo | January 8, 2017

I think, FWIW, if you have no way to charge at home, a Tesla isn't right for you. You will quickly grow tired of having to go to the supercharger and (potentially) wait, etc. It's just not very practical, even if you only drive 250 miles per week. Also, you will have to charge at least 2x per week at that rate because you'll have modest vampire drain and other things, like driving conditions, that will prohibit you from actually getting 250 miles.

As it relates to the used X market versus S, I don't think it has to do with reliability. There were a bunch of people early on who bought the X to flip it for a profit and got badly burned as supply ramped up. Right now, as an example, Tesla has ZERO CPO Xs in stock and a ton of S - what's that mean? Nothing probably, other than they had less X to sell and the S has been out longer and they've been pumping them out more and more have been traded in to Tesla than other places.

campari200 | January 8, 2017

Thank you for all the answers.

@CalabasasKid Those are really good points about the SC. I see your perspective.

Regarding local access, I have been told by TM the real problem is ride share companies. For example, an owner buys a used Model S, signs up to be a Lyft/Uber driver, and then they end up charging it for free at the SC. TM is unwillingly subsidizing this. The ride share drivers apparently camp out at the superchargers waiting for their next fare.

For people like me, who drives frequently throughout LA, my goal is to lessen my carbon footprint. Although, I don't see the value of driving a car to Vegas or further. I would fly.

lhanspal | January 8, 2017

I will second elguapo's inputs - if you do not have access to an overnight charger - the EV market is not yet ready. Technically, nothing stops you from using Public EV chargers & Superchargers - but they are so few, that it will became a problem...

You will probably be able to accommodate this inconvenience in the first few weeks, but a few months down - it may seem to be painful.

Anyhow - something to think about... the car does have a mobile charger with 110v/240v ... so, that's an option, if you can make it work...

CalabasasKid | January 8, 2017

110V charging will only get u 3 MPH. Also, it may very well be a huge assumption that he has access to even a regular outlet in his condo garage.

lhanspal | January 8, 2017

True - maybe in 3 years, an EV can exist without an home charger - but right now, public EV chargers are growing, but still too sparse.

I work in the Bay Area and our company has electric charging outlets in each of our buildings - but you wouldn't believe the "Please unplug, I need to charge my Leaf" emails that float around by mid-day... and I realize this is a very 'Bay Area' centric problem... :-) ... but it just goes to show - that even with an office based charging system - it's very painful...

burdogg | January 8, 2017

I generally concur on here - and with some of Conan's first response points.

My first thought though is why an X vs an S? Is there a reason? I have both, love both, don't know which I would take first though - but there is still slight concerns with little quality things with the X that still could show up as it is still so new in production vs the S. That being said, any car can have little imperfections :)

As far as Charging - I think a lot of people here are in agreement, if you can't charge at home, you may end up wishing you hadn't bought yet. i know there are those out there that do it so they may disagree with us. But, think of after a long day, you want to get home. Instead, you have to stop by the supercharger and sit there for 30 minutes more. For me, I just want to get home. I don't even like stopping at the bank, but I have to :) Then you may also wind u pat a full station, waiting even longer (now if you do go through with the purchase, your best bet is to go by the charging stations a day or two before you need it, so if it is completely open, you can pop in and get a little more charge.)

Oh, back to S vs X - the X I think (have not yet been able to really test this out) will eat up the miles a little more then the S will - you can get the rated with the S - I do during the spring-fall months. Winter, yeah, don't count on it :) The X - we just got it, but the drag on it at higher speeds is not as good as the S so it may be harder to get the rated (just my opinion, give me a year with it and I can give better feedback). This all depends on you though in general. There are so many ways a car can be driven that I can say you easily can get the rated miles, but then someone else look at me like I am insane :) There are many things that affect this. (But, to give real data - for my S, you have to average around 285 or so wh/mi (a measure of how much energy used per mile) to get the exact range of miles shown (called rated miles). For 1 year, I averaged 300 exactly. Now this was my very first year and I took delivery in November - which does not help (the cold does have some major effects, and I was just learning how this all came together too). I think after another years worth, it will settle into around 290, we shall see. But at 300, I will get close to, but not quite the rated miles listed. But to be fair, that means during those summer months I got below the 285, so better than the rated, to offset my 380 I as averaging during my first winter :)

Anyway, I would first really look at seeing if there was anyway to get a charging station at home. Talk to whoever you need to to see if you can get a parking spot set up with its own meter and a 14-50 outlet. See what they would charge to have it done (I have heard of others able to get excel to meter a charging outlet). Worth looking into to save some headache you might encounter with charging.

campari200 | January 8, 2017

There is no access to power in the garage area of the Condo. I do have 4 new public EV chargers being installed across the street from my condo. Does this change your opinions? Thank you again!

lhanspal | January 8, 2017

Oh yes, if there's something across the street - then that's as good as having a 'home charger'.

The point is to have a sustainable process...

Of course, now burdogg's got you thinking MS... :-) ... and I will throw in my vote for the MX. I am tall and the MS has a really low profile - so, I hate it when the wife asks me to swap our cars... :-). Eventually - it's your decision - whether you like a low profile sedan, or a taller SUV.

No right/wrong answer there - it's your decision...

burdogg | January 8, 2017

Hm - that depends on you - as you would probably want to move the car once you get it charged so not to block one the whole night - but I don't know the location or if that would even be a problem. But being just across the street would be way easier then having to go out of your way to sit at a supercharger. You could even mix and match :) Occasionally hit the supercharger but most of the time, hit the public charger and walk across the street to your condo. What kind of chargers?

Last - why do you want the car? For me, I love the drive and feel of it. I would have a really hard time buying anything else at this point. So it would be hard for me to not get it, but convenience does come into play, and my wife would rather I be home with her and the family than sitting charging because I had to have the car :)

burdogg | January 8, 2017

Ihanspal has a great point - if you are tall or a little bigger and have a hard time getting in something lower - you definitely want the X :) If you have the option, you really should test drive both too. I just asked because it seems like our world is centered around SUV's :) My wife did mention that the regen seems stronger in the S then the X. We don't know if it is just the size of the X vs the S. I love the feel of regen, so like it in the S, wish it felt a little stronger in the X. If you really are wondering things between the two, please ask, there are plenty of answers that everyone can give you to help you weigh your decision :)

campari200 | January 8, 2017

@burdogg I believe they are Level 2 chargers. Brand new and haven't been turned on yet. I want the car because it is AWESOME! Drove my friend's MX and WOW!!! It really is the best car out there!

campari200 | January 8, 2017

@burdogg Also... Picking the MX for tax reasons >6,000lbs or else I would get the S

oildeathspiral | January 8, 2017

campari200

You say there's no access to charging in your condo's garage but as long as you're willing to pay for it "Under AB 2565, which went into effect July 1, multifamily owners may not unreasonably deny a resident’s request to install an electric-vehicle charging station in his or her current assigned parking space."

https://caanet.org/leading-the-charge-with-electric-vehicles-in-californ...

burdogg | January 8, 2017

@campari200 - very good reasons - that would be me too - WOW :) I say go for it with the access to chargers across the street and you may want to look into what oildeathspiral linked for you too. But, you do still have to ask yourself if the chargers don't work out, are you ok having to supercharge and loose time doing that?

Just a note too again - I am a little biased, I had my S and had to get the X after a year because I couldn't stand having to drive our Expedition whenever our family had to go somewhere (we all don't fit in the S). So I don't really see myself going back. But I don't have to deal with the charging issue you may run into. But if you are really wowed by it, and can afford it, then do it. If you are like me, you will go stir crazy wanting to get it. That wouldn't go away for me so finally put in the order for the X (back in Oct, delivered in Dec).

campari200 | January 8, 2017

@burdogg Would you recommend getting the car configured with the High Amperage Charger Upgrade? Will that help increase range when charging specifically at a Tesla Destination Location?

burdogg | January 8, 2017

Good question - that is a tough one. It will speed up your charging at a Tesla Destination Location - but NOT a supercharger, that is a different ball of wax :) What you have to weigh is how much are you going to be using destination chargers - do you travel a lot and if so, is it going to be in places where the Superchargers are not available. I didn't on either of my cars as I was trying to keep costs down. The nice thing though, you can enable it at any time now and it is only $400 more to add later.

I just don't see myself going off the beaten path too much where I would really need it. What I would recommend you do is look at where majority of your trips take you and see how the charging would work out. I know your case is unique in that you will need other charging methods since you don't have it at home. But I would think you would just use superchargers before you use destination chargers for that kind of charging :)

Now, if I looked at my routes and saw that most everything was covered by supercharges, don't add it, it is a waste, and like I said, if you find yourself going to take a trip and realize you need it, call Tesla to get them to add it (I am not sure how this part works though :) Most of the time though, people are using destination chargers over night at a hotel so the extra is not necessary. Look those things over and then if you have specific examples of your trips, maybe I can give even a better answer :)

campari200 | January 8, 2017

@burdogg After looking at the plugshare website, I do have many options for charging using the paid networks. This leads to some new questions:

1) If using a DCFC, will the High Amperage Charger Upgrade speed up the charge range/hour? Or is it only good if I charge at a Tesla Destination Charger?

2) Some of the DCFC are located at car dealerships like Nissan. Are they hospitable having a Tesla on their charger? These are EVgo Paid Chargers on the plugshare website.

3) To add the High Amperage Charger Upgrade it adds $1500 to my order, $1900 if I want to "enable" later. I'm assuming the hardware is already installed and this is a software upgrade.

I really appreciate all the help!

burdogg | January 9, 2017

@campari200 - Here is what I know :)

1) a DCFC is a DC to DC so there is no need for a conversion (Superchargers are DC chargers. So, battery accepts DC. When you plug into the wall, it is taking AC current, so it has to be converted to DC for the battery to then be charged. This is what the High Amperage Charger does, it increases the ability to convert AC to DC faster.) Superchargers and other DCFC are already in DC current, so there is not conversion taking place, therefore bypassing the High Amperage converter. So if you are always using DCFC - you wasted your money on the High Amperage Charger :)

2nd part of #1 - It looks like there are some J1772 that would benefit from the Higher Amperage (would have to be a level 2). I am not an expert on this either as I have only used Superchargers :) Basically your car is able to handle 48 Amps. The High Amperage ups this to 72 Amps. So the chargers you would use would have to push more than 48 amps to get the benefit. Any 14-50 NEMA outlet will not benefit from the Upgrade.

2) - I don't know how the dealerships work, but I think if it is on the EVgo Paid system, you can use them. I have heard it can be a pain as sometimes they are blocked and getting someone to move is difficult.

3) - I believe it is just a software upgrade at this point. Early on, it used to be a second converter that you had to buy and then they would install it. The newer cars I believe it is just software, but you may just want to ask someone at Tesla for sure if you are not getting it upfront so you know if it is a simple process or not to add later.

Did that help? Other questions or things I can try to make clearer?

campari200 | January 9, 2017

@burdogg That helps tremendously! Thank you again!

burdogg | January 9, 2017

No problem - good luck - do you have all your other options picked out? What are you looking at?

CalabasasKid | January 9, 2017

I would NOT waste the money on the high amperage option until you know more data. I personally have charged at quite a few hotel-installed destination chargers only to find out that they're limited to 30-40 AMPS which I find quite puzzling. You spend the extra $1500 to enjoy 72 AMP charging at 48 MPH only to discover that they didn't install a beefy enough circuit and in some case you're not even charging at 48 AMPS! Very disappointing.

burdogg | January 9, 2017

Yeah, that is my general take - I wouldn't/didn't. I think that is what I was trying to get across, but there are some (and I do think a select few) that really could benefit from this, but for the most part, at 72 AMP, you still have to wait a while to get miles, so you get 48 mph charge instead of 25 ish (Don't remember the exact number).

Anyway, I concur CalabassasKid. Just wanted to try to make sure I didn't lead the campari astray so wanted more of his personal data as far as where he might be going where he would think he would need it. Once in a lifetime - no, but if work put you in a place where you were not near superchargers and in order to make your trip, you had to use a different charger AND you can get the higher charge rate (ie destination charger, or J1772 Level II), then yes, time saved is worth the money. Again, very few I think fall into this category. Others like it just to have it and don't care to spend money, or they just like the fact that at home with their wall charger they bought, they can use the max amps and charge faster (most charge overnight so this is really not necessary)

campari200 | January 9, 2017

Wow... All really good points. I will probably get it and amortize the cost of it in the payments of the car rather than pay a lump sum later on.

CalabasasKid | January 9, 2017

By the way, at max AMPS, the difference is essential charging at 48MPH vs 32 MPH. Yes, that's a 50% bump but only 16MPH increase

campari200 | January 10, 2017

Do you know how many MPH the CHAdeMO Level 3 chargers work on the 90D Model X? There are a ton of those around my area.

burdogg | January 10, 2017

I do not know - and it all will depend on your battery state when you go to charge too.

Here is some info to go off of (which may or not be completely correct ;)

CHAdeMO is the trade name of a quick charging method for battery electric vehicles delivering up to 62.5 kW.

At a Supercharger station it can receive DC fast charging at up to a 120 kiloWatt rate

So CHAdeMO is half the KW rate of a supercharger. Does that translate to half as fast?

Here is a video (although 2 years old) that you may want to check out to give you an idea of the difference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU_otU6BuwM

burdogg | January 10, 2017

campari200 - Don't forget to use a referral code when you order (I am sure you are already aware of that, but just in case I thought I should remind you. The $1,000 off ends Jan 15 (they have been known to keep it around, but who knows)

Did you figure out what you wanted? What you going for (color, interior, options, etc...)

campari200 | January 10, 2017

Now I am thinking of leasing a Model S to get more range. Originally, I thought I'd need to buy the Model X to take the Section 179 depreciation, but from what I have found out I can lease the Model S and write off the business portion as an lease expense. I would be giving up the depreciation component, but the lease expense would help offset this over the term.

I didn't think that was ok with luxury cars, but it seems that it is.

burdogg | January 10, 2017

They are both great cars - I love my S and my X. Have you test drove them both?

I for one am not a lease person, but whatever works for you. You can depreciate a Model S, maybe not a large chunk upfront, but can depreciate it over 5 years too (at least I am - of course only the portion that I have for business use, vs personal use). May be something to really sit down with your CPA and figure out if one is better than the other.

Again, I just think there is value in putting money into owning the car that is mine and not being restricted to a set amount of miles, etc...Now others have said if you have to have the latest and greatest, then lease is the best, as you don't take a hit when you trade it in at the end of three years to get the next thing :)

Just more food for thought - with the S, what options, etc.. are you looking at.

AlMc | January 10, 2017

With the rapidity of change in both the S and X hardware/software, leasing is a good consideration.

Personally, at this moment, a used S *may* be more reliable than a used X. That will probably change over time but it is something I would consider as early Xs (first several thousand VINS) had more QC issues than S produced in the same time frame.

burdogg | January 10, 2017

AIMc - I would agree - if you are looking for a used one. I also don't think you have as much option in the X used market as there are just not that many out there.

campari200 | January 10, 2017

@burdogg
Model S 90D
Silver
Sunroof
21" Grey Turbine Wheels
Enhanced AP and FSD Capabilities
Premium Upgrades Package
Smart Air Suspension
High Amp Charger Upgrade

If I do the Model X for some reason, I would do pretty much the same build ;)

AlMc | January 10, 2017

If you are trying to *save* electrons, 19" wheels would help.

burdogg | January 10, 2017

AIMc - yep - you will loose distance too with the bigger wheels, or so they say (I have not tested that :) I also hear the 21" wheels don't last as long (again, don't know personally, just what I have heard)

I love my sunroof. What seats did you go with? (or thinking about going with) and the interior trim :)

campari200 | January 10, 2017

@burdogg Black Premium. Love the 21" wheels. They really look amazing!

I wonder if Tesla still has the two year lease option?

burdogg | January 10, 2017

If you love it and know the trade off - go for it :)

I don't think they do have the two year lease option anymore, it was a short term thing, I think to get more people to jump and buy. As far as I know, it is the 36 month now.

I like the black, but I still love my X that we just got, the Blue with White seats, it just pops to me :) But everyone loves different things, so sounds like you have it figured out :)

campari200 | January 10, 2017

@burdogg Wow! That sounds like a great combo! If the two year option is off the table, I'll most likely finance and get the X. I don't want to lock in for a 3 year lease. I'm not as familiar on how to depreciate the Model S if I finance as opposed to the vehicle over 6000#'s.

I owe you lunch for all of great info here!

Conan_the_Contrarian | January 10, 2017

burdogg, you're the best.

campari200, told you so. Glad you were able to get so much useful information.

campari200 | January 10, 2017

@Conan_the_Contrarian Thank you! Great community here!

burdogg | January 11, 2017

@campari200 - everyone likes their own color scheme, just thought I would share a pic of my X - the blue with white :)

http://imgur.com/a/cM9kb

campari200 | January 11, 2017

That looks awesome!!! Now I am reconsidering my choices!!!

burdogg | January 11, 2017

Sorry :) I can get a little better picture for you later if you really want to see the seats etc...

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