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200,000 US vehicles sold

200,000 US vehicles sold

Any estimates on what the current number of vehicles sold in US is and where it will likely be by year end as model 3 ramps up production. Obviously its a tax based question as I time my purchase of MX. Trying to figure out if I can hold off a long enough to save up and not get a loan but still get the full tax credit. Obviously free supercharging disappears in 2018 but thats another piece of the puzzle

inconel | July 3, 2017

A recent estimate puts the number of Teslas sold in the US at 100,000
Last night tweet from Elon translates to about 40,000 Model 3 by the end of the year, probably all US bound at this point. Plus another maybe 10,000 to 20,000 of S and X and I would guess around 150,000 to 160,000 by the end of 2017.

inconel | July 3, 2017

As for 2018 if Tesla reaches production of 5,000 Model 3 per week and it is still mainly US bound then we should reach 200,000 by end of Q1 or early Q2. Just my own estimate of course.

jbdvm1988 | July 3, 2017

Thanks inconel. Once 200k cars is reached then the tax rebate drops in half for the next quarter and then drops to 25% for the next quarter--- correct????

Rocky_H | July 3, 2017

@jbdvm1988, No, not right about the tax credit phase out. It stays at full credit for the rest of the calendar quarter in which the 200,000 cars is reach, and then it CONTINUES at full credit for one more quarter. So if they plan it right (as they have said they will), they could have almost 6 months will full credit after the 200,000 car mark. Then, it drops to 50% for two quarters, and then 25% for two quarters.

jbdvm1988 | July 3, 2017

Thanks so much Rocky. You made my plans much simpler

HadoukenZR | July 4, 2017

I'm in the same boat trying to time when to pull the trigger on the MX purchase. For me since its a "nice to have' upgrade and not a "must need" I would like to wait as long as possible to get any future upgrade/changes they may make from now till then.

Agreed free supercharging is also another piece of the puzzle which is why I'm thinking end of 2017 is a good time to order. You never know what other upgrades they'll release just like this week with the new HW changes to improve 0-60 performance or the 7-seat folding seats! Though I plan to get a 6 seater maybe they'll do folding 2nd row for that as well?

jbdvm1988 | July 4, 2017

@HadoukenZR. It's nice Tesla doesn't wait for model year changes to upgrade but it sure is a bit disappointing when you order your car and just afte it arrives the battery pack options increase or a new feature appears. I wonder if free supercharging will reappear in 2018. Maybe it will prior to the next improvement then I'll miss out on that. Guess I'm best to go with a plan and not sweat the next new thing. Sort of like selling stock for a profit then missing a major uptick

Rocky_H | July 5, 2017

@HadoukenZR & @jbdvm1988,

Similar advice to consider for both of you. Yeah, Tesla rolls out improvements whenever they feel like with no advance notice, so you do have to be an adult and own your emotions of being satisfied with your purchase. You can wait a while to see what improvements or features they may throw out there, but you do need to know up front that when you place your order, you will get what you order, and anything that comes out a week or a month or two later is just stuff you won't get. Oh, well, other people get better newer things after you sometimes, and it's your choice whether to be envious of that or not.