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Anybody's estimate still start with an October?

Anybody's estimate still start with an October?

Some were estimated October-December. Are your estimates now saying October-December (my guess is yes), or have they changed to November-December?

Sweetride | November 1, 2017

Still Oct-Dec

dsvick | November 1, 2017

I wouldn't expect estimates to change until late December, that's why they gave a range to begin with so they wouldn't need to constantly update them.

jamierummler | November 1, 2017

Between November and January

jamierummler | November 1, 2017

I live in MD, reserved on day 1.

NumberOne | November 1, 2017

I reserved on day one and have owner priority. Mine still says Oct-Dec. My guess is that it is not as much a date indicator, as a batch indicator. Oct-Dec is simply the first group (after employees).

andy.connor.e | November 1, 2017

Typically, if someone estimated they would arrive sometime between 1-5pm, they do not update you with a new timeframe every hour that goes by. (2-5, 3-5, 4-5).

TASANB | November 1, 2017

My delivery estimate still says OCT-DEC...(heavy sigh)...2018.

LA-Fohlen | November 1, 2017

Do you really think they will change the estimate each time? It's just an estimate. It might even still say the same in Jan.

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

When my wife was pregnant for the first time, the doctor gave us an estimate of 38-42 weeks until birth.

The day after we hit week 38 (and every day thereafter), the doctor made sure to call us and let us know the updated estimate (... "Hello, Mrs Mntlvr23, your new estimated range is 38.5-42 weeks. Thanks, and I will continue to keep you updated)

Shock | November 1, 2017

"Typically, if someone estimated they would arrive sometime between 1-5pm, they do not update you with a new timeframe every hour that goes by. (2-5, 3-5, 4-5)."

Are you sure? If your boss asked you at 10 am when something would be done and you say between 1-5 and he asks again at 2 PM you would tell him again 1-5 even though 1 had already passed?

"Do you really think they will change the estimate each time? It's just an estimate. It might even still say the same in Jan."

No, i didn't. I said before today they wouldn't and hinted at as much in my first post. I never expected them to change it This is because I believe the estimate is virtually hard-coded and people trying to infer from their estimates, even after confirmed production delays, that they will still get the car in the time frame on the website are being unrealistic.

andy.connor.e | November 1, 2017

@Shock

I do not need to keep my boss updated with a new timeframe. If i told him I'd have something done between 1-5, its its 2pm, its still not 5 yet. If he comes to me and asks me what the progress is ill tell him. But i do not owe him a new estimate every hour in the middle of that timeframe.

If Tesla estimates Oct-Dec delivery, they do not owe us anything until its no longer Dec.
To get back to your example, if my boss is impatient like Model 3 reservation holders, in the sense that he wants a new update at 2pm when i told him 1-5, what do you think my answer will be? If 1-5 was not good enough for him, then theres nothing i can do, because i dont have enough information to give him a tighter timeframe. But otherwise, if we are still within the timeframe that was initially given, a "new timeframe" is not required because we are still within the initial timeframe estimate.

Its up to YOU to accept the timeframe given. If you want to be impatient, expect to be disappointed because they dont owe you anything.

patswin | November 1, 2017

I don’t think a boss would come back that soon asking about it if you said 1-5. Unless of course he was in a big hurry. Then my answer would have been between 1-5 but I will try to get it closer to 1 if at all possible. Then his coming back at 2 and asking about it would make sense. Then my answer would be no not yet.

PhillyGal | November 1, 2017

Hmm, would we rather Tesla spend energy updating a still accurate range of time or getting cars produced quickly?

jefjes | November 1, 2017

Depending on how well I get along with my boss, I might say "Oh, you meant today?". If I were worried about my job, I would say "As originally promised by 5 but if sooner you'll be the first to know, Sir.". If my job wasn't that important, "Every time you ask causes me to be delayed even further so now the estimate is by 6."

thedrisin | November 1, 2017

@PhiilyGal

Do you think the person updating the web page has to be pulled off the production floor?

PhillyGal | November 1, 2017

@thedrisin - No. I expect the logistics/planning brain that would calculate the production rate vs. reservation priorities/numbers who tells the person updating the web page what it should say would have to be pulled away from other logistics matters, which may include those related to production, suppliers, deliveries, etc.

PhillyGal | November 1, 2017

But thanks for playing....

burdogg | November 1, 2017

as my son would say - Oh Snap :)

Shock | November 1, 2017

"Hmm, would we rather Tesla spend energy updating a still accurate range of time or getting cars produced quickly?"

This question hints at your belief that the people who work in sales and planning also work in automation engineering; that time spent away from planning and forecasting is time that can be devoted to fixing production line problems.

Here's the take home: The estimates are fixed. They are not fluid; not dynamic; they are not based on actual production forecasts (they may have been a few months ago when first created). Our monthly estimates are not a summary of detailed, real-time data from Tesla.

rgrant | November 1, 2017

I’m thinking things will get updated after today’s call. But we’ll see, Tesla works in mysterious ways...

Fredbob711 | November 1, 2017

Comparing the delivery estimate to giving an estimate to your boss isn't really a good comparison. Most jobs have deadlines associated with work and you're expected to give an estimate, and your boss has authority over you to require you to give them a timeframe for completing the work.

The better comparison is you've reserved a future product with a company knowing that it may take quite some time to receive your product, and because they want to give you some information, they tell you delivery will take place within a certain timeframe (say a window of 3 months or so). They are in no way required to give you that estimate, therefore are not required to give you any kind of an update on that estimate. They may not look good, but they could never update that estimate even if they were 1 year overdue and still not have done anything wrong.

The delivery estimator is a courtesy that Tesla has decided to provide us with. They are not going to build an entire IT project around keeping the damn thing updated (which is what it would take) with real time data just to keep you happy.

Personally, I would expect them to maybe update it mid-November to mid-December if they're still behind, not because they have to, but because image-wise it's the smart thing to do.

burdogg | November 1, 2017

Fredbob711 - I have been trying to say what you said so succinctly around here many times. Everyone wants to hold them to this set and fast "estimate window" that they were putting out there as a courtesy.

I thought this last night and didn't post it but it was this - Tesla has so many naysayers that they were damned if they did, damned if they didn't. If they didn't give an estimate - there would lots of hate thrown their way about how behind they are and they aren't producing cars, that they will only get a handful out before the end of the year, and the list could go on.

Damned if they do - How in the WOLRD do you predict a new line, new car completely, and very early car company, a time frame that people are going to look at, scrutinize, and tear apart but yet demand to know? How do you get through production hell with all naysayers waiting to say, see, you can't make it in the time you thought. Yet you give too far a timetable and same naysayers laugh at you at how long you will take to do it. Lose, lose situation.

Man, people are harsh and beat to their own impatient drum. Tesla had NO HOPES of winning this battle. It amazes me at how fast it is glossed over that this car was due LATE 2017. We are just entering that time frame, and yet we have over 300 cars DELIVERED already! But no one cares, because it will never be good enough.

andy.connor.e | November 1, 2017

@burdogg gets it right at the end.

it will never be good enough. No matter what Tesla does, there will always be something that they are not doing, and that will always be the focus. The focus is never on what they ARE doing, always about what they are NOT doing. Over 2000 cars delivered, and its still Late 2017. Hint right there, its still 2017. What delays? What timeline was missed? They're beating it because they started delivery mid-2017. Shoot we figured it out, better change the mechanism of your complaints.

eeb9 | November 1, 2017

Every company has its naysayers. Sometimes they get it right, more often they get it wrong.

They get it right just often enough that shorting stocks is a profitable - if risky - pastime.

Tesla is no exception - it's such an audacious and risk-laden venture that the sharks will remain circling well past the time that EM proves his points and moves on to the next big thing.

There will come a time when - if the Secret Master Plan works as intended - Tesla is just another boring large-cap automaker. Not for a good while yet, and the competitive landscape will change dramatically between now and then, but that's the end-game. Sustainable transportation at volumes in the tens/hundreds of millions of units per year.

Of course, by then, some upstart room-temp-fusion/antigrav/[unimaginable-new-tech] company will come along and disrupt even *that* status quo...

The cycle doesn't end...

Haggy | November 1, 2017

Mine still says I might get it between October and December, and until I actually have the car, I'm not going to rule out October.

Kikujiro | November 1, 2017

From the 3Q earnings update, looks like there will be a 3 month shift of the S curve. 5000 veh/week in late March. Oh well... I am not expecting mine till 2019.

Ubah Goobah | November 2, 2017

My estimate shifted from Oct-Dec 2017 to Nov 2017-Jan 2018. I was expecting worse.

Yodrak. | November 2, 2017

My delivery estimate still says "Late 2018". I wonder what the difference is between OCT-DEC and Late? Maybe Late is after Christmas?

"My delivery estimate still says OCT-DEC...(heavy sigh)...2018."

Tgintz | November 3, 2017

Mine said January to March 2018, now says Early 2018.

tonylugo0905 | November 3, 2017

I reserved within the first 5 minutes of the first day and I am a 2 time Tesla owner. My Oct - Dec date disappeared !!!

daverileyak | November 3, 2017

3/31/16 10 a.m. reservation. First Production estimate slipped by one month; Standard Battery now says "Early 2018"; Dual Motor says Aug - Oct 2018, which I think is also a one month slip. Never really put any faith in the projections, and still don't. Unknown unknowns abound. Tax credit for this year would be helpful, but in the big picture, it's a really small thing. How anybody at Tesla plans to handle an Alaska delivery is a mystery to which I doubt anyone in Palo Alto has yet given any thought. There are two Teslas registered here on the Kenai Peninsula that I know of, one of mine and a Model X. Deliveries here? Realistically, without a lawsuit, maybe 2022. May use my Oregon address.