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New Email from Tesla to Model 3 Reservers - Regarding Delivery Window - Also a new FAQ (8:40 pm EDT 11/01/17)

New Email from Tesla to Model 3 Reservers - Regarding Delivery Window - Also a new FAQ (8:40 pm EDT 11/01/17)

This is what I just got:

"Thank you again for your Model 3 reservation. We’re making significant progress clearing early production bottlenecks but, as we continue to work through them, your estimated delivery timing will now be slightly later than we originally expected. Over the next 24 hours, you can log into your Tesla Account at any time to view your updated delivery window.

Thank you for your patience and, more importantly, for believing in a sustainable energy future. We’re working hard to make it happen.

You can find more information on your reservation, your delivery timing, and get a first look at the latest Model 3 vehicles coming off the line here".

----

Also a new FAQ tidbit:
"Once you receive your invitation and place your order for Model 3, you can expect to take delivery in approximately 1-3 months depending on your location"

(I am curious to see what the new estimate shows)

KP in NPT | November 1, 2017

Hmmm interesting. 1-3 months? That seems to be setting expectations. 3 months? That is longer than deliveries for S/X by quite a bit. Under promising?

KP in NPT | November 1, 2017

And the website is acting wonky for me..."internal server error" when I try to check my My Tesla.

wcbenjamin | November 1, 2017

I just got the same email

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

Yep, ever since getting the email 15 minutes ago, I have been trying to get into My Tesla Page - and it won't go.
Things are getting updated.

wvicaire | November 1, 2017

I've looked in my account and still cannot find my ship date. I ordered mine july 2016. Is anyone else having this problem?

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

Just got in ..... but no change yet.

slasher0016 | November 1, 2017

Mine is still the same; I assume it's not updated yet.

garyjtate | November 1, 2017

Email here also, unable to check status.

Pete | November 1, 2017

My wife got the email (she's listed as the alternate contact on my account) but I didn't. Checked my email address and it is correct. Also getting the server errors probably due to everyone trying to login after getting the email.

I'm sorry I have to check the "I'm not a robot box", if I was maybe I could help Tesla get the production line moving.

Jcastillo18 | November 1, 2017

Same here email and tesla login acting funny! Here we go on another car and mouse chase lol !

WantMY | November 1, 2017

Just got my email.

Haggy | November 1, 2017

My Model S took 111 days from the day I placed the order. 1-3 months isn't so bad.

Scoopok | November 1, 2017

Finally got logged in but delivery date was unchanged. Im doubting Nov.- Jan is likely!

AJPHL | November 1, 2017

Kudos for getting something out to reservation holders so quickly.

eric.whang | November 1, 2017

over promise under deliver is the tesla way.

Haggy | November 1, 2017

"Over the next 24 hours, you can log into your Tesla Account at any time to view your updated delivery window."

That doesn't make any sense. It literally means I can check between now and 24 hours from now, but is there a reason I wouldn't be able to check after that? If they planned to change it, wouldn't it make sense to say either that I can see the revised estimate at any time, or if it's not ready yet, tell me when it's going to be ready?

It hasn't changed even though the email sort of said that it did.

RSavage_92024 | November 1, 2017

@Pete "My wife got the email (she's listed as the alternate contact on my account) but I didn't. "

Same here...strange, but I'm glad it's not just me.

KP in NPT | November 1, 2017

LOL Haggy - ok but would you agree they've sped up the order to delivery timeline considerably since then? ;)

Kierans | November 1, 2017

Same email, not a shocker and appreciate the update.

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

I am really pissed off at Tesla.

It has been a half an hour since my email from them saying that they would update my delivery estimate within 24 hours .... and my page is not updated yet ..... AND .... furthermore, they haven't yet sent me a new updated email stating that I should have my updated delivery window estimate in the next 23.5 hours.

noleaf4me | November 1, 2017

yea - same email. Sad I may have to wait a few months longer.....oh well.

cafutter | November 1, 2017

My page just updated. I made my reservation in Nov 2016 and it says if I get the 330 mile/premium update version it will be April-Jun 2018 at the low, low price of $49K. The web site is very slow.

tripplett | November 1, 2017

I got the same email and tesla dot com is having major problems right now. Probably half a million model 3 owners trying to check their delivery dates.

Shock | November 1, 2017

Seems I'm right once again. First I get flak over predicting reservation cancellations, then vindicated when Tesla releases the numbers. Then I point out the incongruity in their estimates, get more flak (https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/anybodys-estimate-still-start-october), then Tesla affirms.

I can't pretend it's not fun being right, but it's also not terribly hard. One just needs to look at things objectively and couch predictions in a little experience. Anybody here is capable of it. You're all smart people. Even the "but Tesla said October-December, and we're not at December yet" crowd will have to eat crow on this one. Not that I expect them to. Because, again objectivity + experience tells me people hate admitting when they got something wrong :)

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

In addition to working on their site, their email is likely generating a lot of traffic.
They would have done better to update the delivery estimates first, and then send out the email.

noleaf4me | November 1, 2017

@mntlvr -- being blocked on the Hat thread again....

Haggy | November 1, 2017

"It has been a half an hour since my email from them saying that they would update my delivery estimate within 24 hours"

If it's the same as the email above, it doesn't say that. It says that over the next 24 hours you can log in at any time. That would include the moment after you got the email, but after 24 hours you lose your chance. It doesn't say it will change during those 24 hours. Quite the contrary, telling you that can log in at any time implies that it won't.

That being said, I'd like to get back in to see if they simply screwed up on the language of the email, but apparently the website can't handle it.

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

I get blocked there a lot as well when making replies - though it never blocks me in updating the OP
I don't know how many replies to others were rejected and that I gave up on and never got back to.

Steam613 | November 1, 2017

Haggy I read the email as no later than 24 hours it will be updated. Not immediately and for only 24 hours. Putting myself in their shoes the choices were 1. Post the new dates without reaching out to us until after (chaos) 2. Shut down the website, drastically upgrade the server to handle a HUGE onslaught of reservation holders logging in for a one off event (stupid) or 3. Reach out to us respectfully. Then as quickly as possible upgrade the accounts. ]
So I would say tomorrow after work I will check and until then be patient.....yeah right. Well that's what I should do anyways.

Shock | November 1, 2017

"That doesn't make any sense. It literally means I can check between now and 24 hours from now, but is there a reason I wouldn't be able to check after that? If they planned to change it, wouldn't it make sense to say either that I can see the revised estimate at any time, or if it's not ready yet, tell me when it's going to be ready?"

You're right: it makes no sense. I don't for a moment imagine they actually meant to say what they said, which is how you interpret it. Instead they just released an email to thousands of people without running the text past an internal check to see if it was actually clear and conveyed what I imagine they meant to convey, which is that over the next 24 hours they will be updating the estimates and, after that point, you can log in at any time.

Haggy | November 1, 2017

"Even the "but Tesla said October-December, and we're not at December yet" crowd will have to eat crow on this one."

No, I can honestly say that there was no indication up until now that things would change and anybody who predicted otherwise did so without any basis. That doesn't make me wrong. I can now say that if I take the email literally, my estimate hasn't changed, but based on Tesla's statement about the ramp up time frame, I'm now back to what was the best case scenario when I reserved the car. My assumption was that if Tesla did get the car out by the second half of this year, it would mean that it might not come out until the last week in December and I could expect the ramp up to take at least a quarter under the best of circumstances.

I don't think the "but Tesla said October-December, and we're not at December yet" crowd was saying that it would definitely happen during that time frame, only that there was no indication that it wouldn't. That was accurate.

noleaf4me | November 1, 2017

Inside EV estimated 145 Model 3 deliveries in October.

KP in NPT | November 1, 2017

+1 Haggy.

Plus, they were under no obligation to change it at this time, since technically they hadn't missed the delivery window. But I'm glad they did so people would calm down.

Garyeop | November 1, 2017

I just bought new tires for my 100k mile ICE. I dont mind getting 3 mor months of wear out of them. I am not worried about when I get my Model 3 as long as I get the $7.5k.

Shock | November 1, 2017

"I don't think the "but Tesla said October-December, and we're not at December yet" crowd was saying that it would definitely happen during that time frame, only that there was no indication that it wouldn't. That was accurate."

There was tons of indication it wouldn't. Reasonable analysis of what Tesla told us: they were barely building cars.

So people like me who interpreted results such as a whopping 220 cars produced in September were wrong to infer that a massive miss on production was most likely to result in a future reduction as well? Evidently we were not wrong.

Here is how I knew Tesla was substantially behind schedule: I've been exposed to enough projects professionally to know that in most cases they tend to lag behind schedule to begin with. I honestly didn't even pay much attention to the fact that Tesla has a storied history of missing timelines. I just looked at this one. Larger projects (which this car is) experience larger issues, and it is virtually a law of nature that when a timeline slips it does not recover. So when we saw Tesla releasing numbers a month back about where they actually were it was pretty obvious to me that they were massively behind. Their oct-dec est relied upon an essentially perfect execution of tasks. And tesla had told us clearly that this perfect execution had never happened. They admitted this in plain english. Ergo, they were behind, ergo not going to produce in time.

ebmcs03 | November 1, 2017

No change for me. Still Nov to Jan for early production and Feb to April for 220 miles.

hsadler | November 1, 2017

But, how do they know when I read the email that they can tell me 24 hours.

Huh!!! Huh!!! Huh!!! ?????????

RichardKJ | November 1, 2017

My standard battery dates were Jan-Mar but now Dec-Feb. other dates unchanged. I suspect this is not the change they are referring to, but it is a change from earlier today.

coolnewworld | November 1, 2017

I'm still Nov-Jan! Can I go pick up my can now?

Haggy | November 1, 2017

"So people like me who interpreted results such as a whopping 220 cars produced in September were wrong to infer that a massive miss on production was most likely to result in a future reduction as well? Evidently we were not wrong."

Yes, you were definitely wrong. You were 100% wrong. The 220 cars were not an indication of when the bottlenecks would be resolved. During today's conference call, Musk explained that progress is exponential and he wouldn't give an estimate for the month because if a bottleneck takes three weeks to fix, the throughput on the first day of those three weeks would be the same as on the last day of those three weeks, but the next day it could be 40 times higher. He couldn't predict on which day or week any given bottleneck would be fixed. Maybe you think you know more than Musk or maybe you think you are psychic, but you'd be wrong on both counts.

If you still think you were right, then explain to us why you knew that the bottlenecks would take longer to fix than Musk thought, and don't use the 220 cars as an excuse because it had nothing to do with it. All it shows is that until the bottleneck is fixed, Tesla can't make cars in large quantities.

If you still don't understand what Musk was saying, if a bottleneck in 90% fixed it doesn't mean that the volume will be 90% of what that stage is capable of producing. It will be the same as if that bottleneck wasn't being fixed at all.

yaheya | November 1, 2017

Got the email. Delivery date unchanged. Not sure what to make out of it. I was Jan-March it is same now. Oh well.

Madatgascar | November 1, 2017

I'm still Oct - Dec. Will check again in 23 hours

Frank99 | November 1, 2017

I'm guessing the Web crew were as surprised by the announcement as anyone else, and were told to get the email out before going home. Tomorrow they'll work on updating everyone's estimates....

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

I think that when Elon mentioned that they had to rewrite 20-man-years of code - he was referring to the code that recalculated the delivery windows for the 500,000+ reservers ;)

yaheya | November 1, 2017

Once you receive your invitation and place your order for Model 3, you can expect to take delivery in approximately 1-3 months depending on your location"

Ok so if my delivery estimate is Jan-March and I submit my order in March do I get my car in June then ? Totally confused.

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

@Yaheya - slow down and re-read. Work out what order things occur. You can do it.

yaheya | November 1, 2017

@mntlvr23 can you explain please ?

mntlvr23 | November 1, 2017

@Ya - delivery estimate = delivery estimate.
Invitation to configure will come before that (perhaps 1-3 months before your delivery estimate date)

robert.kirshner | November 1, 2017

Worse and worse. Hoping for better. But hope is not a plan. What is the plan?

rxlawdude | November 1, 2017

The nattering nabobs of negativity above are proof that even a broken analog clock is right twice a day.

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